Cheltenham - Day 2

Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival.

We didn’t really get the rub of the green yesterday – but these things happen – you’ve just got to move on…

There are 7 more races today – though in truth, betting opportunities are far more limited…

The ground was certainly riding quick yesterday – and I suspect it will be a little quicker again today.

That will suit some horses – but cause real issues for others.

I’ve managed to find tips in 3 races – but no certainties !

That said, I’m sure we’ve got some ‘value’ again – and hopefully we will cash some of that in, before the week is out.

Hopefully starting this afternoon….

Here are my thoughts:

Cheltenham

1:30: My original feeling was that this would be a walk in the park for Yanworth –

but having looked a bit harder and thought a little more, I’m now not so sure…

Yes, he was a massively impressive winner last time out, on ground that he was supposed not to like: but he clearly did like it, and maybe that wasn’t the case for a few of his rivals (in short, maybe he was flattered).
If you ignore that run, then he still has every chance this afternoon – but he doesn’t look like a certainty…

In fairness, his presence has scared off a few potential rivals – but he is still facing at least a couple of very useful sorts, from the Willie Mullins stable: the first is Yorkhill and the second A Toi Phil.

Yorkhill is himself unbeaten under rules: scoring twice in bumpers last season – and twice more in novice hurdlers this season.

The most recent of those wins was in the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle at Sandown – when he had subsequent Betfair hurdle winner, Agrapart, well beaten in third place.

His form looks strong – and he could well improve for todays step up in trip.

A Toi Phil is equally unexposed.
He as only run 4 times over hurdles (just 3 times in Ireland) and has won his 2 most recent races.
He looks like a big improver and it’s almost impossible to know how good he is.

It will be a little surprising if the winner comes from outside these 3, even though there are some other fair performers in the race.

If asked to pick the most likely winner, I would go for Yanworth – but only just.

If asked to pick the best bet, I would suggest A Toi Phil. 8/1 is a very fair price.

2:10: In the article I produced for the SBC at the beginning of the season, I offered 3 horses for the RSA chase: Beat That: Beast of Burden; and Seeyouatmidnight.
Unfortunately, the first 2 named haven’t made it to the race (Beat That hasn’t run all season and Beast of Burden runs in the Coral Cup) – but Seeyouatmidnight has.

He was the longest priced of the trio at the start of the season (I backed him at 70+ on BF) – but he’s just a 12/1 shot now.

Furthermore, if the ground were a bit softer, I think he could go very close – but on decent ground, I suspect he might set up the race for something else.

The 2 obvious ones are More of That and No More Heroes.

They have been disputing favouritism for most of the winter – with the recent dry spell meaning that More of That now heads the market.

Of the 2, I think No More Heroes is probably the more talented chaser – but ground is very important and I can understand why More of That has usurped him at the top of the market.
He was a top class hurdler a couple of seasons ago – and he defeated Annie Power, when taking the 2014 World hurdle.

He disappointed last season – but has reinvented himself as a chaser this season, via a couple of decent performances.
He will need to raise his chasing game to take todays prize - but there can be little doubt that he has the natural ability to win.

No More Heroes has already won two grade 1 novice chases – but they were both on heavy ground.

Quicker ground raises a real question mark over him…

With the ground riding as it is, then I think it could be worth taking a small chance on Vyta Du Roc.

He was a very decent hurdler last season – and after a slow start, is developing into an equally talented chaser this time round.

He two most recent runs have seen a defeat by Bouvreuil at Doncaster and a victory over Minella Rocco at Ascot.
The form of both of those runs was franked yesterday – and Vyta Du Roc has a marked preference for quicker ground.

I guess there is a slight question mark over whether he is quite good enough – but the possibility that his main rivals might disappoint, make him worth a small risk at a decent price.

2:50: Just the 26 runners – so I’ll start with a short list:

Politologue; Diamond King; Baoulet Delaroque; Blazer; Hunters Hoof; and Baron Alco.

Of the 6, then I am prepared to dismiss Baoulet Delaroque and Blazer because they have shown their best on very heavy ground.

They may be just as effective on quick ground – but until they demonstrate that they are, we are just guessing…

I think Baron Alco will handle the ground – and his aggressive style of running should keep him out of trouble. However, it’s likely that will also be his downfall - as making all in this race won’t be easy…

He’s a back to lay in running proposition – but I don’t think he’ll come home in front.

I found it difficult to categorically dismiss the other 3, so I’ve decided to split stakes across them.

Politologue is the one I fancy most – though it’s very hard to quantify his form.

In truth, that is part of the attraction, as the upside for him is significant.

He’s only run 3 times in the UK – all 3 runs coming in quality novice events – and he’s performed with great credit in each one.

The handicapper has had to guess at his mark – and 142 doesn’t look overly harsh.

His victory in a 17 runner race in his native France, also suggests that he should be able to handle a big field.

He represents the same owner/trainer/jockey combination that took this race 12 months ago - and I’m hopeful that lightening will strike twice.

The other 2 I want on side, are Diamond King and Hunters Hoof.

I tipped the former earlier in the season when he contested one of the hottest handicaps of the season, at Fairyhouse.

He was just run out of that, by Blue Hell – but he made no mistake in a conditions race, next time.
As a result, he has to run off a mark of 149 today – 17lb higher than the mark he was beaten off at Fairyhouse.
From a pure handicapping perspective, that suggests he has a huge job on – but I suspect his current handicap mark doesn’t flatter him.

Hunters Hoof is another difficult one to get a handle on.

One of 5 runners in the race for Nicky Henderson, it’s interesting to see that Nico de Boinville rides, suggesting that it’s the stables main hope.

The horse has a progressive profile – but also a marked preference for quick ground.

He was disappointing last time out – but that was in the mud at Haydock.

It’s almost 4 months since that run – but I doubt he’ll be found wanting for fitness this afternoon.

As always, we’ll need a bit of luck – but granted some, I’m optimistic that one of the 3 will come home in front.

3:30: This could turn out to be the race of the festival – and it will hopefully establish just how good Un De Sceux is…

He’s looked very impressive in his chasing career so far – but there remains a niggling doubt that he’s never been properly tested.

That really should happen today - and if he can come through this particular test unscathed, then he is likely to be recognised as a true champion.

Certainly, there are plenty of potential issues for him to overcome this afternoon:

Firstly, there is the ground. He has a definite preference for soft going, so todays quicker ground might cause him an issue.

Then there is the pace in the race. He’s tended to make all in his previous races, but he is likely to be taken on up front today, by Special Tiara – plus possibly others.
Finally, there is the opposition. If Sprinter Sacre was at his imperious best, I’m pretty sure he would canter all over Un De Sceux.

Even operating at his current 2/3 level, I think he could test him.

And if he doesn’t, then reigning champion Dodging Bullets could; or former champion Sire De Grugy…

That said, there is also the possibility that the last 3 named are past their best, so Un De Sceux won’t need to be a world beater in order to master them.
I hope that’s not the case – but it could be…

If that is the case, then the main opposition will come from Felix Yonger, Gods Own and Sizing Granite.

There seems to be some momentum behind Felix Yonger - but I don’t honestly think he’ll be good enough.

Gods Own was an eye catcher last time out at Kempton – and I think he has every chance of placing in todays race.

The issue with him is that he really wants to go right handed – and in a championship race, you need everything in your favour.

He was beaten at Aintree last spring, by Sizing Granite.

That one has a marked preference for decent ground – and fortunately for him, that’s what he will get this afternoon.

He’s not run since disappointing badly at Christmas – but that was on bottomless ground. Since then he has also moved stables – and whilst I would never consider a move from Henry de Bromhead a good thing, in Colm Murphy, he has a new trainer capable of getting the best out of him.
And what a feather in his cap it would be, if he could pull off a grade 1 win with the horse, on its very first run for him.

The horse is progressive: has decent form and will love the ground.

It’s facing a number of rivals with question marks hanging over them.

At 33/1, I feel it’s worth a small EW play…

4:10: Despite the numbers, I’ll be a little surprised if this race isn’t won by either Balthazar King or Josies Orders.

Both are cross country specialists: one a former champion and the other his heir apparent.

The key to Balthazar King is for him to be fresh – and quick ground.

The fact he’s not run since last years Grand National is therefore a big positive - particularly with the ground drying up as it has.

However, his run in the Grand National resulted in a horrific fall.

He broke ribs and punctured his lungs - and it was touch and go for a while whether he would survive.

Furthermore, he is now 12 years old – whether he can come back form such an injury at his age, has to be open to debate…

As a consequence, Josies Orders looks the one to be on.
He actually has a preference for softer ground – but got away with quick ground when winning over the course in November and December.

He doesn’t have a lot in hand of a few of his rivals, based on those 2 runs – but I suspect Nina will get him home in front again this afternoon.

There aren’t actually that many who I can make a case for.
I initially thought that Ballyboker Bridge looked interesting – but he will have his work cut out to turn round form with Josies Orders.

As is always the case in these races, Valadom will present a good back to lay in running option – though once again, he is likely to run out of steam in the final half mile.

Simply, I think this race is Josies Orders to lose.

You can never be overly confident in these kind of races – but if he jumps round cleanly and runs to form, he should win.

4:50: This looks an absolute minefield – and without inside knowledge, all you can do is make an educated guess…

Diego du Charmil and Campeador are the 2 obvious ones to guess at – because they have similar profiles to recent winners.

Whether it’s guess work that sees them heading the market, is a different matter – but I’m not surprised that they do…

Ignoring the painfully obvious, I would go for Messire Des Obeaux and Coo Star Sivola.

They have only run 3 times in this country between them - but they have both caught my eye.

In the case of the former, it was when travelling really strongly in a decent race at Haydock on his UK debut: whilst the latter caught my eye when running well on his UK debut at Cheltenham, back in November.

Both look to have endless scope for improvement – and are fair stabs at 14/1 and 20/1+, respectively…

5:30: The final race on the card is the championship bumper – and again, a fair bit of educated guess work is required…

My feeling is that non of the Willie Mullins horses are world beaters – so I would be inclined to take them on.

Generally, the Irish horses are better than the UK ones (though that wasn’t the case 12 months ago), so I would focus on them.
My 2 against the field are New to this Town and First Figaro.

The former is trained by Jessie Harrington – and is unbeaten in 2 bumper starts to date.

Following its most recent win, it was bought by Alan Potts - and so Johnny Burke will be taking the ride for the first time.

I expect him to get a good spin off it…

First Figaro is trained by the maestro Dermot Weld – and ridden by the incomparable Davy Russell.

If Mr Weld ever fully turned his attention to the jumping game, then Willie Mullins might not have things quite so easy !!

First Figaro ran second in a bumper at last seasons Punchestown festival, before winning at Galway in the summer.

He disappointed last time – but that was on bad ground at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Back on better ground today, I could certainly see him being involved where it matters…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Cheltenham 2:10 Vyta Du Roc 0.25pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 2:50 Politologue 0.25pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 2:50 Diamond King 0.125pt win 9/1

Cheltenham 2:50 Hunters Hoof 0.125pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 3:30 Sizing Granite 0.125pt EW 33/1

Eye Catchers

Cheltenham 3:30 God’s Own