Daily write-up - Mar 5th

With Kelso abandoned this morning, there are now just 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Stratford in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

The overnight rain – plus more rain during the day – mean that it’s going to be another case of ‘guess the going’ today !

I don’t tend to dwell on the previous day, when I produce the write-ups (I generally find it best to just move on !) – but I feel obliged to comment on the situation with Muhtaris…

As I said in yesterdays write-up, when I tipped him at Ascot on his penultimate run, everything that could have gone wrong, did go wrong.

It poured down for most of the day, making the ground unsuitably soft - and he pulled like a train for the first half mile of the race.
Consequently, he was beaten a long way from home…

Yesterday, I just couldn’t be sure of the state of the ground.

I’d witness supposedly good to soft ground at Ludlow the day before, ride like a bog – and I’ve little doubt that if it had been the same at Newbury, Muhtaris wouldn’t have featured.

Instead however, it was a beautiful spring like day – and the ground did indeed appear to be riding on the soft side of good, as forecast.

Perfect.

Similarly, when the race began, despite being ridden by a 7lb claimer, Muhtaris had no issue settling in last place – just popping his hurdles…

I knew inside half a mile that he was going to go very close - and sure enough, he breezed up to the leaders between the last two hurdles and won as he liked.

It was very frustrating to watch, even though I’m sure that quite a few of you were on him (as indeed was I !).

I just don’t know what I can do about it.

I create the write-up early in the day and it is impossible to know what he ground will be like at that time – particularly if there has been recent rain (as has been the case on so many days during the past few months).

I guess that’s why I produce the write-up – and spend so much time telling everyone that TVB is not just a tipping service !

Anyway, enough of yesterday - and on to today…

There is an interesting card at Newbury – but the Doncaster card has been spoilt by the weather (which has resulted in lots of NRs and small fields).

The cards at Stratford and Gowran both contain an interesting race apiece.

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Newbury

1:45: Rock Gone looks the obvious one in this.

He finished a very good second on his belated seasonal debut at Plumpton last month – and off a mark just 2lb higher, must have every chance of going one better today.

I don’t think there is a lot not to like about him – except the price.

He was 3/1 last night and that felt too short.

He’s 4/1 now – and is definitely saver material, at that kind of price.
However, I think the value is with Flementime…

She was runner up on her seasonal debut at Lingfield in a fair race – and looked sure to go on from that.

However, she disappointed next time, in a hot mares handicap hurdle at Cheltenham.

Admittedly that was a much better race – but she didn’t show any sparkle – despite wearing first time cheek pieces.

Apparently she was checked over following the race, and it was found that her breathing wasn’t quite right.

She was operated on to hopefully resolve that issue, so I’m expecting her to put in an improved performance this afternoon.

Certainly if she can bounce back to her Lingfield form, she is entitled to go very close today.

Soft ground will be no issue for her (if it does rain) – and she has shown a few times, that she can go well fresh.

She has form in the book which entitles her to go close – so if the cheek pieces (which are retained today), manage to eak out a little improvement, I’m optimistic she’ll be able to get home in front.

Part of the attraction to her, is the lack of credible opposition.

Rock Gone aside, this looks a fairly weak race, and something will need to bounce back to form, if it is to mount a challenge.

The likes of Olofi and Tiger O’Toole have plenty of back class – but the suspicion is that they are past their best.

I don’t think that’s the case with Flementime – and hopefully she can prove the point this afternoon.

2:15: I think the state of the ground will have a bit effect on the outcome of this particular race…

If it remains as it was yesterday, then Same Difference looks the one to beat.

A lot needs to be taken on trust with him – but he is undoubtedly handicapped to win, so it’s just a question of whether he retains sufficient ability.
I think he probably does - but he will need a sound surface on which to show it.

If the going has deteriorated, then I think Shotovodak is the one most likely to take advantage.

He is also well handicapped (though not as well handicapped as Same Difference) –and showed himself coming back to form with a close up fourth place in a veterans chase at Doncaster, last time.

There is a slight concern over his ability to stay the trip (so I would have reservations over him if it were bottom-less) – but provided it doesn’t become an extreme stamina test, I think he should cope.

If it were to become really heavy, then Pete the Feat and Restless Harry would be hard to beat.

Both possess buckets of stamina – are in decent form – and are well enough handicapped.

Of the outsiders, then Masters Hill could be of interest on soft ground; whilst Shuil Royale could go well if it is good ground.

2:50: This is a really interesting looking race – but one which it is difficult to be adamant about.

The 4 horses at the top of the market are unexposed, with scope for potential improvement.

In all probability, the winner the winner will be one of them – and I suspect the betting close to the off will direct as to which one.

Certainly if either Boite or Saint Charles are strong in the market, I wouldn’t want to look any further: if they aren’t, then Wells De Lune and Gala Ball are likely to be the 2 to focus on.

Of the longer priced horses, then top weight Forest Bihan is probably the most interesting.
He ran well at Catterick before pulling up last time in the Betfair hurdle.

He sets a fair form standard – but I suspect one of the unexposed ones will surpass it…

3:25: Another very competitive race, in which I could give a decent chance to five.

My ‘short’ list consists of: Generous Ransom, Laser Hawk, Little Jon, Art Mauresque & Pythagore.

Generous Ransom is the one that interests me most.

I tipped him for the Paddy Power gold cup (and was pretty keen on him) – but the ride he was given that day, meant he never had much of a chance.
Next time out, he ran at Doncaster – but the 3 mile trip was too far for him.

As a result of those 2 runs however, his handicap mark has been dropped 4lb and he gets to run today off the same mark that he ran off at last years Cheltenham festival (when he finished third).

I think he can do damage off that mark…

Laser Hawk is a definite danger – though he does want soft ground.

He’s had excuses for his last 2 poor runs – and is another whom I’m sure can do better.

Little Jon will be a danger if able to recapture his course and distance form of 3 runs ago; whilst Art Mauresque is potential well handicapped – I just wonder if Newbury is the right course for him…

Pythagore is the potential fly in the ointment.

Trained in France, he has never previously raced in the UK – so is impossible to assess.

That said, the fact his trainer is prepared to bring him over for the race (along with his stablemate Vicomte Du Seuil) suggests he is expected to go well.

He is definite saver material…

4:35: Johnny Og is one of the horses which will be inextricably linked with this TVB season…

I tipped him when he ran at Ascot in December – and he ran a fair race to finish sixth, considering the race didn’t pan out to suit him.

I then intended to tip him at Newbury in January – but that meeting was abandoned early in the morning.

He ran a couple of days later at Ascot – and I opted not to tip him, for fear he would end up in a pace war.

That didn’t happen and he came home a comprehensive winner…

He was turned out the following Saturday at Cheltenham is desperately heavy ground – and never featured.

He’s been given 5 weeks to recover from that – and I’m sure he will appreciate the better ground he will get today.
I also really like the fact that he should get an uncontested lead – I think that could be key.

Without wishing to tempt fate, his jumping is generally very sound – so if he can get into a rhythm up front, I can see him pressurising his rivals into mistakes…

Of his rivals, then Florida Calling is the one I fear most.

In truth, he is almost impossible to assess. He runs in a handicap chase today, after 3 runs over hurdles to get a mark.
I have a feeling that the mark he had been given, could underestimate his ability - but a lot has to be taken on trust and the price isn’t there to warrant a risk.

Allow Dallow is a potentially interesting outsider - but Johnny Og is the solid option and hopefully can come home in front.

Doncaster

2:00: It’s not often that you see 9/2 about the outsider in a 5 horse race – but that’s the case in this particular contest !

And in fairness, I can see why…

All 5 runners can be given a decent chance and it’s really not easy to pick between them.

Of the 5, then I would be inclined to cross off Astigos and Ulis de Vassy.

Upsilon Bleu could win – but ran poorly last time, so is risky…

Pearls Legend, on the other hand, hardly ever runs a poor race, and I would expect him to go very close.

He’s definitely the one to beat – but if I was going to bet in the race, it would probably be on Yorkist.

He’s taken some time to find his form – but does seem to have done so now – and is well handicapped.

I would suggest that 3/1 was about right for him – so there is a touch of value in the 7/2 available.
Certainly if he gets to 4/1, then he is worth a small play …

2:35: Waterclock bids to maintain the 100% record of the official eye catchers in this – and I think there is a fair chance he will do so…

He caught the eye last time out at Wetherby, when settled too far off the pace, in a race where the leaders didn’t come back.

In fairness, that wasn’t as good a race as todays – although todays race has cut up quite badly and isn’t as strong as looked likely to be the case.

The re-application of cheek pieces is an interesting move today – and if they sharpen him up a little, I do think he is the one to beat.

The issue really is just the price - particularly as the race could become tactical, with only 5 runners.

Assuming he settles nicely behind an even pace (Zeroshadesofgrey could try to make all), then he could definitely be worth an in running play.

Again, 3/1 would be fair – anything above that would be a bonus.

3:45: The field for the feature Grimthorpe chase has been decimated by the weather…

There were over 20 declared at the 5 day stage – but that became just 8 over night.

Another 2 out this morning, means that just 6 will go to post for one of Doncaster’s biggest races of the season.

Of those 6, then Sego Success is the one that interests me most.
He was a good winner of a fair handicap chased over this course 2 outings ago, before falling early last time, when favourite for the Classic chase at Warwick.

It will be interesting to see how he’s ridden today.
When he recorded his course win, he was ridden very aggressively – but with 2 other possible front runners in the race (Drop out Joe and Seventh Sky) – plus a longer trip to contend with, he may be ridden with more restraint.

In truth, I can see tactics (as well as ground) playing a big part in this race.

If one of the jockeys is able to secure a comfortable lead, then I suspect they will be hard to pass.
If they end up going off too fast in very soft ground, then it will set things up for a closer.

With all the uncertainty – and no particular margin in the prices, I think it has to be a watching race…

Stratford

4:40: Carrying just a 7lb penalty for his impressive win at Fontwell on Sunday, Thinger Licht looks the one to beat in this – but I’d be looking to take him on.

Despite winning easily, I suspect the had quite a hard race – and todays even softer ground, won’t play to his strengths…

Colins Brother is the one who appeals most - though an absence of over 3 months and relatively short price (5/1) mean he’s not tipping material.

There is also a potential fly in the ointment in the shape of Vice et Vertu.

He couldn’t be supported on the back of what he’s shown over fences – but he is well handicapped based on his hurdles form and the application of first time blinkers in an interesting move.

As to is the booking of Richie McLernon, for what I think is his first ride for the Henry Daly stable.

However, I’m sure not how to read that one, so I’ll take a watching brief and hopefully learn something !!

Gowran Park

2:55: I have a feeling that last years winner, Toon River, is going to run a really big race in this…

He has a great record at Gowran (all 4 of his career wins have been at the track) – and he absolutely bolted up in the corresponding race 12 months ago.

He’s not done much since – and has to run from a mark 7lb higher.
He is also 11 years old now, so possibly a little past this peak.

However, I suspect he’s been targeted at this race – and he should get a really strong pace, which will enable his stamina to come into play.

There are a few who could be better handicapped than him – and a few who are likely to be more progressive – but I doubt any of them will be in better condition on the day – and that could be decisive.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(E) Newbury 1:45 Flementime 0.25pt win 12/1

(E) Newbury 4:35 Johnny Og 0.25pt win 12/1

(L) Newbury 3:25 Generous Ransom 0.25pt win 8/1

Eye Catchers

Doncaster 2:35 Waterclock