Cheltenham - Day 3

Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival.

After a relatively quiet day, betting wise, there are far more opportunities this afternoon.

In fact, this is probably my favourite day, from a betting perspective, so lets hope I can make it pay !

The ground continues to dry up – and as I suggested it might at the beginning of the week, selective watering took place last night.

Hopefully the impact will be minimal and the ground will remain quick (but safe).

I’ve focused on the 3 big handicap for todays tips – with a couple more small tips in 2 of the conditions races.

It would be nice if one or two of the bullets could hit the target !

Here are my thoughts:

Cheltenham

1:30: I’m sure the quicker ground will play a significant part in the outcome of this race – I’m just not sure exactly how..!

The best form of all of the main protagonists is on much softer ground – and trying to figure out which ones will be best suited by good ground isn’t easy.

My instinctive feeling is that the ground will suit the quicker horses and the better jumpers.

To that end, I would be inclined to take on both Black Hercules and Outlander, as I suspect both are better with give under foot (and possibly over further).

The same could be argued of Bristol De Mai – but I think he will handle conditions just fine.

On the book, he shouldn’t be able to handle Garde le Victoire.

That one had his measure when the two met at Uttoxeter, back in October and is better off at the weights today. However, Bristol de Mai is on a steep upward curve, under-pinned by sound jumping; whereas the jumping of Garde Le Victoire, can be a little chancy.

I think that Bristol De Mai is the one to beat in the race – but I don’t think the standard he sets is unsurpassable…

Based on his last time out run, L’Ami Serge can be given little chance. He also disappointed a little at last seasons festival, when only fourth behind Douvan.

However, he was sent off at just 7/2 that day – which is pretty short, considering how highly Douvan is rated…
Aside from those two loses, L’Ami Serge is unbeaten in the UK - and can boast some seriously smart form, both over hurdles and over fences.

He has always shown a preference for soft ground – but has only run on quicker ground once (at last years festival) so it’s impossible to be adamant that he won’t handle it.

He is in the same ownership as Bristol De Mai and the fact that Daryl Jacobs prefers the latter, isn’t a positive for L’Ami Serge.

That said, Jacobs won’t be the first jockey to get a tough decision wrong and I do think that L’Ami Serge is the most talented horse in the field.

In truth though, this is not a race you can be adamant about.

In addition to the 4 market principals, it’s also possible to make cases for Zabana, Three Musketeers and even As De Mee.

In short, it’s a pretty open race.

I think L’Ami Serge represents a bit of value at 10/1 – but he’s certainly no good thing…

2:10: Again, I think the good ground will have quite a bearing on the result of this race – only this time it’s a bit easier to work out which runners it will suit.

My short list consists of the following:

Taglietelle, If in Doubt, Missed Approach; Join the Clan; Our Kaempfer and Leave at Dawn.

I suspect that Taglietelle, Join the Clan and If in Doubt are all a touch too high in the handicap – though only a touch (I’m sure they will all run well).

Missed Approach was harshly dealt with by the handicapper for his last time out win – and seems a little short in the betting.

The two to focus on therefore seem to be Leave at Dawn and Our Kaempfer.

The former won well here at the November meeting – and ran eye catchingly in the qualifier for this race, over Christmas.

The application of a first time hood is interesting – and the fact Barry Geraghty chooses him over JPs other 5 runners, has to be significant.
However, a best price of 7/1 is tight in a 24 runner handicap.

Our Kaempfer isn’t much bigger at 10/1 – but his profile is very appealing.

He’s been eye catching on all 3 of his runs this season – yet races off a mark 1lb lower than at the start of the season.

His form from last year, looks very strong; he will relish the quick ground; and he looks to have been layed out for the race.

I have a slight concern over how he will face the hill at the end of 3 miles – but that concern is only slight.
In short, he has a lot going for him and hopefully will prove to be a good bet !

Just a quick mention for Padge. He became an official eye catcher when putting up a good performance in the qualifier for this race, run at Exeter.

I’ve no issue with him today – other than the quality of the opposition.
I would expect him to run well – but would be surprised if he were good enough to win (or probably even place).
That said, at 40/1 he might be worth a tiny risk – just in case !

2:50: The shape of this race has completely changed over the past few days…

A week ago, Vautour, Road to Riches and Valseur Lido were all earmarked for the Gold Cup and it looked like we were going to get a substandard renewal of The Ryanair.

However, all 3 have been re-routed here – and it threatens to be quite a race !

That said, if Vautour turns up in peak form then there really should only be 1 winner.

In truth even if he turns up 90% right – he’s still likely to be too good for his rivals.

I’ve absolutely no doubt that the market will tell all, close to the off…

I was half tempted to take a stab at he race – but ultimately, I think there is just too much uncertainty.

Of the others, then Road to Riches is the obvious one to follow Vautour home (assuming he’s not a late withdrawal !).

He was a close third in last seasons Gold Cup – and whilst I don’t think he’ll improve for the drop in trip, that is very good form, regardless of the distance.

Valseur Lido was hammered by Vautour in last seasons JLT – and it’s likely to be the same thing again today. He’s another who would be better over further…

Outside those 3, then it’s possible to make cases for a few to be placed – but none of the cases are watertight…

Al Ferof and Dynaste are getting a bit old: whilst Taquin Du Seuil and Smashing would prefer softer ground.

Village Vic and Annacotty are just good class handicappers – and whilst Gilgamboa and Vibrato Valtat both have scope for improvement, they also have a lot of improving to do…

Of the above mentioned, then Dynaste at 40/1 holds a bit of EW appeal.

However, if I had got involved in the race, it would have been with Josses Hill.

He finished second to Vautour in the 2014 Supreme novice hurdle and third to Un De Sceaux in last seasons Arkle.

He’s is still progressing – and will enjoy the decent ground.

I think he has a fair chance of placing and therefore 25/1 is a fair price.
However, he’s not good enough to beat a peak form Vautour – and he’s probably not good enough to beat Road to Riches either.
Ofcourse, he could still snatch third place – and if they under perform maybe even better than that.

But on balance, I figured he wasn’t quite worth a risk…

3:30: It’s quite easy to predict how this race will unfold..

Cole Harden will try to make all (though Knockara Beau will doubtless be an irritant to him for most of the race) – with the others sitting in behind, biding their time…

The main protagonists are likely to strike, turning for home – and it will be a question of which one has the most potent kick.

In all probability, that will be Thistlecrack.

He’s been an absolute revelation this season – and thoroughly deserves to take the World hurdle crown.

In truth, he looks pretty much bomb proof.

Proven over course, distance and ground – with tactical versatility, a good jumping technique and a sound temperament.

It will take a very good one to beat him…

In all probability, there won’t be one good enough to beat him in the race - but if there is, I think it could be Aux Ptit Soins.

Unlike all of the other runners, he is completely unexposed.

He won the Coral Cup on his seasonal debut 12 months ago – and whilst the World hurdle is a big step up, the sky did look the limit for him, that day.

He’s apparently had a few issues this season – but is over them now.

He’s proved he can put up a big performance first time out – and I’m hoping he does so again today.

Aside from him, then the others don’t look good enough to beat Thistlecrack.

I have a feeling that last years winner, Cole Harden, will get swallowed up on the run to the last – and think that either Saphir de Rheu or Whisper are more likely to get placed (though neither of them is completely guaranteed to run its race).

Of the outsiders, then I could see Martello Tower running well – assuming he can handle the quicker ground.

4:10: If all things were equal, I think Johns Spirit would hack up in this.

He is certainly handicapped to do so; will love the quick ground – and has proven himself, many times, over the course.

I have little doubt that he’s been layed out for the race – and will have been primed for a mighty run.

In fact, there’s only one thing I don’t like about him (excluding the price !) – and that’s the fact he needs to be held up…

I was just as keen on Rajdhani Express in the equivalent race 12 months ago – but despite not needing to be held up, he never got a run and consequently finished well beaten.
Sometimes, the best horse doesn’t win the race.

This will all come down to whether Richie McClernen can navigate countless traffic issues - and get Johns Spirit into a position where he can mount an effective challenge.

If he can, I think he’ll win – if he can’t, he won’t…

My original intention was to gamble on Richie pulling it off – but it’s a huge concern and simply, at odds of 6/1, I’m not sure there is much ‘value’ in it.
As a consequence, I’ve decided to just save on the horse…

I’ve also decide to save on Fingals Bay.

There is no worry about him getting trapped behind a wall of horses.

In his first time blinkers, I’m pretty sure that Dickie Johnson will try to make all (or at least be very prominent).

The issue for Fingals Bay, is the fences. His jumping technique is not the most robust - and as we know, Cheltenham takes a bit of jumping !

If Dickie can get him into a rhythm up front, he will take some passing – though equally, if he hits one, the game will quickly be over…

As with Johns Spirit, the value in his price is minimal – but he’s also got a big chance of winning, if things work out right…

As well as these 2 fancied runners, I’m taking more speculative stab at a couple of relative outsiders.

Niceonefrankie was an official eye catcher, when running behind Taquin Du Seuil at Warwick, last time.

That suggested he was back close to his best – and his best saw him take apart a competitive field over todays course and distance, in December of last season.
He runs from a mark just 3lb higher today – and Charlie Deutsch effectively offsets that with his 5lb claim.

The horse is another who likes to race prominently – which is likely to be an advantage this afternoon.

The final one I want on side, is Salubrious.

The case for him, is simply that he is a previous festival winner, who is now potentially well handicapped.

He won the Martin Pipe hurdle race at the 2014 festival, off a mark of 141.

He actually reached a rating of 153 over hurdles - but runs today off a mark of just 140.

There has been some promise in his chase runs this season, without things fully clicking.
If they click this afternoon, then he is more than capable of going very close.

Hopefully those 4 between them, will manage to yield the winner !

Collectively, I’ve risked half a point on them – and I feel happier doing that, than putting all of my eggs in one basket and going 025pt EW on one of them.

There aren’t many more in the race that I would consider: though market support for Full Shift would be a worry: whilst I could see Little Jon outrunning very big odds.

4:50: This is the first ever running of the mares novice hurdle. It is presumably seen as a preparatory race for the David Nicholson mares race, which is run on the opening day of the festival.

It’s not a race I have strong view on.

Before the meeting began, Limini was being touted as Rich Ricci’s best chance of a winner at the festival.

If that’s right, then the others are just playing for second place.

I did think that Smart Talk might be worth an interest EW - as her form is way ahead of the other UK mares.

However, I’m not sure she really wants quick ground over 2 miles – and she’s already had a hard season.
Considering that in all probability, you would be playing simply to get your money back – she is easy enough to swerve.

If you want one at a price (125/1 in fact !), then I would suggest the French trained, Why Wait. Needless to say however, it would just be educated guesswork…

5:30: I’ll be a bit surprised if this race isn’t won by one of the top 4 in the market…

Doctor Harper, Cause of Causes and Upswing look like they have been layed out for it: whilst the Giant Bolster would be handicap good thing, if he were able to recapture the form that saw him place in 3 Gold Cups.

The Giant Bolster was actually the first one of the 3 that I dismissed – despite the fact that the prevailing good ground could well see him bounce back to his best.
It was far more difficult to separate the other 3: though the available odds – and the presence of Derek O Connor in the saddle for Upswing - helped me to do so !

In addition to having the best jockey, it’s arguable that Upswing has also got the best form.

Certainly, his penultimate run, when second to the now 163 rated Sausalito Sunrise, in receipt of just 8lb, looks very good (considering Upswing runs off a mark of 139, today).

He was well fancied on his most recent run in the Welsh National – but was pulled up in heavy ground.

I’m happy to ignore that – and feel sure that Jonjo will have him absolutely spot on today.

At a general 10/1, I think he represents a bit of value.

Whilst I respect the chances of both Cause of Cause and Doctor Harper, at 6/1 I don’t think they represent any value.

Consequently for the other bet in the race, I’ve plumped for an outsider, who I think has a good chance of placing.

We were on Grandads Horse last time, when he was a gallant second at Doncaster.
He has gone up 2lb for that run – but that puts him on a mark of 136 – still 3lb below his last winning mark.

We know the horse is in good form – and he loves quick ground.

He has also got Sam Waley Cohen in the saddle, which is a real bonus in the amateur races.

My feeling is that he probably won’t be quite good enough to win – but I think he’s got a real chance of placing and 8/1 to finish in the first 4/5, is not a bad bet…

Others worthy of a mention, include Indian Castle, Sambremont and Lost Legend – as I could see all 3 of them outrunning their odds.

However, I think that the 3m2f trip will be to far for the official eye catcher, A Good Skin. Hopefully he will run again, over a little shorter, before the end of the season.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Cheltenham 1:30 L’Ami Serge 0.25pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 2:10 Our Kaempfer 0.25pt win, 0.125pt place 10/1

Cheltenham 3:30 Aux Ptit Soins 0.125pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 4:10 Johns Spirit 0.125pt win 6/1

Cheltenham 4:10 Fingal Bay 0.125pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 4:10 Niceonefrankie 0.125pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 4:10 Salubrious 0.125pt win 25/1

Cheltenham 5:30 Upswing 0.25pt win 11/1

Cheltenham 5:30 Grandads Horse 0.125pt EW 33/1

Eye Catchers

Cheltenham 2:10 Padge

Cheltenham 4:10 Niceonefrankie

Cheltenham 5:30 A Good Skin