Daily write-up - Mar 4th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury and Doncaster…

The weather was up to its tricks again last night.

Doncaster were supposed to be racing on good ground today.

However, overnight snow forced an early inspection – and whilst the meeting has passed, there are plenty of NRs – and it’s anyone’s guess how the track will actually be riding…

The going description at Newbury is the classic – ‘good to soft: soft in places’.

It covers most possibilities - but is of limited value.

I would rather watch today and assess – so hopefully we have a better feel for the meetings at the same courses, tomorrow (assuming there is no more rain between now and then !).

In truth, even if I was sure on the state of the ground, I might not have any tips.

There are a few horses of interest – but most of them have doubts of some sort, hanging over them.

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Newbury

3:25: Festive Affair is the one I like in this – but there are a few too many questions marks for him to be a tip…

He actually caught my eye last time out, at Sandown – but that was back in December, so his fitness today has to be taken on trust.

The refitting of a tongue tie and removal of cheek pieces are potentially interesting moves – but I’m not sure I would be confident about reading them accurately !

Taking away all the ‘cloak and daggers’ stuff, I think the horse is well handicapped – and should have no issues with trip, ground or track.

He likes to race prominently, so the presence of Artifice Sivola could be an issue – though I suspect he’ll be happy enough to tuck in behind him.

If I could be sure he was fit and connections were going for it, I would take a chance on him – but without that knowledge, I feel he has to be watched…

The other one I will be watching particularly closely, is Gores Island.
We were on him last time at Wincanton, when he finished third – but he disappointed me that day.

He’s cut back in trip to 2 miles today, which might help. His chances will also be greatly improved if the ground is genuinely soft (or worse).

That said, I don’t feel particularly compelled to support him at a current best price of 4/1.

4:00: I think the betting has this one about right, with Nitrogen and Mystifiable at the head of the market.
Of the two, I would have a slight preference for Mystifiable – accepting that this is probably a stronger race than the one he won at Leicester (even though it is a lower grade !).

That said, I do think that the state of the ground could decide which one of the two comes out on top.

The trip could stretch Mystifiable – so he won’t want the ground too testing: whereas it looks like a minimum for Nitrogen, so softer ground should make it more of a stamina test for him.

Of the others, then I think Special Agent could be interesting in first time cheek pieces.
He looks like he could be a bit of a drifter – and may be worth a small interest, if he reaches double figures.

4:30: Needless to say, Muhtaris the one that interests me most in this…

We were on him last time out at Ascot – but everything that could go wrong, went wrong that day…

He didn’t settle in first time cheek pieces and consequently gave himself no chance of getting home over a 3 mile trip.

The cheek pieces are dispensed with this afternoon – and he drops back half a mile to a more suitable trip.

He also gets the services of 7lb claimer William Featherstone, which reduces the weight he has to carry.

I guess I have two concerns about him: firstly, how he will cope if the ground is on the soft side; and secondly, the form of the James Evans stable (which I just have a slight concern about).

On balance, I guess he could be worth a risk at a general 8/1 – I just feel I’ve been stung a few too many times recently, by the going to take a risk (and that’s what it would be).

Doncaster

There is just too much uncertainty (ground and NRs) to consider getting seriously involved with much at Doncaster, so it has to be primarily a watching brief.

In truth, it’s a relatively disappointing card, so the loss isn’t as great as it might have been.

2:40: This is the most interesting race on the card and I quite like the chances of Azert de Coeur.

He ran really well 3 outings ago at Wetherby, when running the progressive Caraline, very close.

He’s disappointed on his 2 most recent runs, but has been dropped 2lb as a consequence.

He’s Venetias only runner at the course – and he shouldn’t mind what state the ground is in.

The current 4/1 is tight enough – but if he drifts to 5/1 or greater, he could be worth a small play.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.