Daily write-up - Mar 8th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Exeter and Newcastle.

Things are likely to be very quiet this week – even by deep winter, mid week standards…

In precisely a weeks time, it will be the opening day of the Cheltenham festival.

To an extent, we are simply killing time, to that point…

Talking of Cheltenham, all of the significant bookmakers – bar William Hill and Ladbrokes – are now going NRNB on all of the races.

I will start looking to issue the odd festival bet in the next couple of days – though I would like at least one of the big 2, to be NRNB, before I do (so people have the option of placing bets on the high street).

The 5 day declarations for Tuesday, will be out on Thursday, so that might be a good time to start the creation of our portfolio..!

As I mentioned in the early email to the Tips guys this morning, I’ve experienced a few internet issues, over the past couple of days.

My connection has barely been available between 7:30 and 8:30.

Fortunately the impact this week is minimal – but if it happens next week, it will be nothing short of a disaster !

As a reminder, if you don’t receive any emails at roughly the time you expect – and particularly, if you contact me and don’t get an email response – check the forum.
In a worse case scenario, I’ll make sure a status update is posted on there (either by me, using my mobile – or by one of the other guys).

With regard to today, then it is relatively low key stuff – particularly at Newcastle.

The Exeter meeting isn’t bad – though I’m not sure what the ground will be like there.

I have views on a few of the races – but no tips.

Here are my thoughts…

Exeter

2:35: Sonny the One seems very short in this, at just 7/4.

I can just about agree with him being favourite – but I would have expected him to be at least a 5/2 shot (maybe 3/1).
He’s in decent form – running well on his last 3 outings – but he’s edging up the handicap, and that will catch him out sooner or later…

Minella on Line is dropping down the handicap – like a stone ! – but I’m not sure I’d want to side with him.

In fairness, he ran reasonably last time out at Haydock, in a much better race – but as I’ve said endless number of times recently, the form of the Rebecca Curtis stable, would stop me from supporting anything trained by her, at the moment.

Dancing Shadow has a chance, dropped in class – though his ability to stay 3 miles is open to question.

The same is true of Epic Warrior – he raced too freely last time and that exuberance will need to be curbed if he is to get home.
Sidbury Hill in yet another unproven over the 3 mile trip – but I think he is worth a try at it.
We were on him last time at Wincanton, when he was beaten over half a mile shorter.

I really expected him to win that day, as it looked a pretty weak race.

As things turned out, it probably wasn’t as weak as I thought, so maybe a third placing wasn’t too bad an effort. 

He’s been dropped a couple more pounds – and I’m sure he can win off todays mark. If his jumping holds up – and he stays the trip – I think he is the one to beat…

3:05: Speredek is the one that interests me in this…

Lat time out at Plumpton, he travelled like the best horse in the race, before failing to get home.

That was over 3m1f in heavy ground – and he drops a couple of furlongs in trip today and should get slightly better ground.

If stamina was the issue, then that might be sufficient to get him home in front.

He’d certainly shown enough promise on his previous hurdle runs this season, to make you think that he is capable of taking a race such as todays, off a mark of 107.

I also see the booking of Tom Scudamore as a positive move. He has a good record for the Nigel Hawke stable – though the stable itself has been pretty quiet over recent months.

Of the others, then I would expect Knight of the Realm to run well: whilst market support for the long absent Tea Time Fred, would be significant.

4:10: it is inevitable that Renard will win another race sooner or later – and it could very well be today…

We’ve been on him twice already this season: first time out at Carlisle, when I thought he was a near certainty - but he disappointed badly: and on his most recent run at Warwick, when he performed much better – but still found one too good.

He drops 2 race classes today (class 2 to class 4) – and there is a chance that he will outclass his rivals.

Certainly, he’s in reasonable form; and both ground and trip should suit him admirably.

At a price, we’d be on him again – however, at just 5/2, I’m prepared just to watch him…

In truth, I can see enough possible dangers to feel relatively easy about leaving him alone.

I could make out a case of sorts, for all bar one of his rivals (the exception being the bottom horse, Isthereadifference).

Tolkeins Tango and Bears Rails are the two I would be most interested in, if Renard weren’t in the race.

He is however, so it will just be a watching brief for me…

Newcastle

3:15: I’m a bit surprised to see Streets of Promise, weak in the betting for this…

She ran really well at Uttoxeter over fences on her penultimate outing, before gaining a convincing victory over hurdles at Towcester, last time.

She runs off a mark of 117 today – the same mark she ran off at Uttoxeter – and a full 8lb lower than she is now rated over hurdles (she won at Towcester off a mark of 120).

In short, she is well handicapped – and in form.

She should have no issue with trip or ground either, so there are ticks in all the main boxes.

I guess what I’m not so confident about, is dismissing all of her rivals.

The Orange Rogue and Celtic Thunder, could certainly be dangerous.
So too could Present Flight, if Lucinda Russells horses were in better form.

I’m tempted to make Streets of Promise a Top Pick – but I just don’t think I quite have a good enough feel for the race to do so.
I do like her chances though…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.