Daily write-up - Mar 6th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Huntingdon and Sedgefield in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

As is so often the case on a Sunday, the quality racing takes place on the west side of the Irish Sea.

In fact, if this afternoons racing was limited to the UK, I would be having a day off !

Thankfully however, the meeting as Naas contains some fascinating contests, to keep interest levels up.

That said, betting opportunities are limited – but it should be great viewing for the enthusiasts !

Here are my brief thoughts…

Naas

2:10: Min is a very short priced favourite for the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, and the strength of his form will be tested, in the opening contest…

Gurteen finished 14 lengths behind him when making his hurdling debut at Punchestown in December – and has won his 2 subsequent races.

Attribution was beaten almost 10 lengths behind Min in a grade 2 event at Punchestown, in January.

If those 2 finish first and second, the opposition to Min in the festival opener, had better start running for cover !

It’s a distinct possibility as well, with them heading the betting – however the 3 other runners aren’t easily dismissed.

There is too much guesswork involved for serious punting, but if forced, I’d side with Burgas.

Like Attribution, he is Gigginstown owned – and Byran Cooper has chose him ahead of the more experienced Henry De Bromhead runner.

Burgas has only run twice in Ireland: travelling nicely before not getting home on his debut at Fairyhouse in January: but then making no mistake in a maiden at Thurles on his subsequent outing.

He looks to have a progressive profile – and whilst still has a fair bit to make up on Gurteen, form-wise, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him do just that.

3:10: Total Recall was an official ‘eye catcher’ on his most recent run, at Fairyhouse , last month.

That was in what looked like a ridiculously strong handicap hurdle - and on his belated seasonal debut, Total Recall led the field to between the final two flights.

My feeling was, that with that run under his belt, Total Recall would take some beating in a average handicap hurdle…

I stand by that - however, this does not look like an average handicap hurdle !

There are 3 or 4 unexposed horse in the race, who literally could be anything – and whilst I doubt they will all turn out to be world beaters, I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them turn out to be too good for Total Recall this afternoon.

Head of list of likely winners, is the JP owned, Fairly Legal, who makes his handicap debut off a mark of 129, after 3 runs in maiden hurdles.

It’s impossible to know whether the mark reflects his ability – though the fact that Barry Geraghty has partners him in preference to JPs other runner, the equally unexposed, A Great View, is definitely a positive.

The two others in the field worthy of specific mention are Bamako Moriviere and Pistol Park.
We were actually on the former last time, when he was pulled up in the Coral.ie hurdle at Leopardstown in January. That was probably a case of too much, too soon for him – but if he bounces back to the form he showed on his Irish debut at Limerick in December, he will be tough to beat.

Pistol Park is making his Irish debut today, for Barry Connel/Alan Fleming, and literally could be anything. I suspect the market will advise on his chances…

In summary, I would expect Total Recall to run well – and there is a chance that he could win (if non of his chief rivals raise their game).
However, he is more likely to be placed, with the winner being one of the other 4 mentioned.

Whatever, it should be a very informative race with regard to the future…

4:40: My long range Grand National fancy, Goonyella, runs in this.

I do hope he wins the big one, as most of the regulars in my local pub are on him – including the landlord – and I shouldn’t have to buy a round for quite some time, if he does !

That’s in the future however, and today is just a step on the path to racing immortality, for him.

I can’t see him being fully revved up for the race – and whilst I would expect him to run well, I could enviage him fading out of things from the third last, as lack of hard fitness, catches him out…

I still think that his owner, Alan Potts, might get todays race winner however, in the shape of Venetian de Mai.

A prolific PTP winner, it’s taken him a little time to find his feet under rules – but his last time out win at Down Royal suggests that things are now coming together.

He doesn’t have a lot in hand of Futeramic on that run, but I would expect him to come out on top again.

At a price, last years runner up, Bothair Clei could run well – though again, a placing is likely to be the best he can manage.

Huntingdon

Rain seems to have had quite an impact on the ground at Huntington and there are a lot of withdrawals this morning.
I would suggest treading very carefully if you get involved with races from the course.

3:30: There are now only 4 runners in the Cambridgeshire National, which makes it a bit of a non event, from a betting perspective.
That’s a shame, as I think I could have put forward a reasonable case for Arbeo – at a price.

A 3 time course winner, he is in decent form at the moment – and whilst climbing the handicap, it still a fair way shy of the peak rating he achieved a couple of years back.

He has ticks in lots of boxes – but has a big question mark in one – the trip…

In fairness, it’s not that we know he won’t stay the marathon 3m6f – it’s just unproven.

My feeling is that he probably will – particularly if ridden to conserve a little energy.

With regard to making him a bet, then I think it’s a question of what price you put on him lasting home.

My feeling is that the doubt has been more than factored into the price - and therefore he should represent a bit of value.

However, with just 4 runners, it means that we’d have to take 3/1 about a horse not guaranteed to get home – and that doesn’t feel like a good bet…

 

Sedgefield

3:20: The most valuable race on the card looks likely to go to the favourite, Jac the Legend.
He pushed Straidnahanah close at Catterick last time, and this looks an easier contest.

Auldthunder is in good form – but this is a fair step up in class and I have a feeling the field might get away from him.

We were on Mwaleshi last time – but he didn’t appear to get home over 2m4f – so the chances of him lasting an extra half mile, must be slim. I’m guessing connections are working on getting him on to a mark from which he can bolt up.

Scotswell has shown nothing on 2 runs this season – though isn’t too badly handicapped if he did bounce back to form.

Askamore Darsi could be interesting – but you would have to be prepared to forgive a very poor last time out run.

On balance then, Jac the Legend should win: though Askamore Darsi is a danger – and Scotswell is worth keeping half an eye on, just in case…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

 

Eye Catchers

Naas 3:10 Total Recall