Daily write-up - Mar 23rd

Just the two NH meetings this afternoon: at Warwick and Haydock.

The weather remains fine and the ground continues to quicken (they have been watering at Haydock).

A bit like yesterday, the cards on offer are reasonable – if unspectacular.

I have some half fancies in a few of the races – but nothing I’m prepared to tip (given the very weak markets).

That’s not to say there aren’t any decent bets – just that the bookmakers are so defensive in their early prices, you may have to be patient, in order to secure them.

Here are my thoughts on a few of the races…

Warwick

3:15: I tipped Pure Poteen on his penultimate run at Doncaster.

I felt he wanted decent ground – but I’m not sure he got it that day. However, the state of the ground was rendered immaterial by his poor jumping.

He made a mistake at the very first fence – and a shoddy round of jumping was finally ended when he fell at the fourth last.

He followed that run, with a poor effort at Chepstow.

However that was on very heavy ground – and I’d be inclined to disregard that.

He’s probably best judged on his outing over this course, back in November, when he finished runner up to Conas Taoi.
He was a bit unlucky to bump into an improving sort that day – and if he repeats that level of form, I think he will go close.

However, I slightly prefer the chances of Brownville this afternoon.

He was running well over hurdles, from a higher mark than he races from today, this time last year.
He showed promise on his chasing debut at Worcester in October – but has not run so well in his 2 subsequent chase runs.
However, they were on soft ground – and I think he will go better on todays quicker surface.

He also has cheek pieces applied for the first time – which suggests connections mean business.

Pure Poteen can be backed at 8/1: with Brownville at 5/1.
I think that both are fair enough prices…

4:20: Chantara Rose is the one that interests me most in this.
She was sent off 9/2 favourite in a 16 runner handicap at Doncaster on her debut for Neil Mullholland stable.

However, she broke a blood vessel that day and finished well down the field.

She’s been given nearly 2 months to recover from that – and back on her preferred quick ground, could be worth an other chance. Certainly the suggestion from the market last time, is that she could be a well handicapped horse.

The other one of interest in the race, is Dubh Eile.
Tim Vaughan has been horribly out of form all winter – but one or two of his have been running better, recently.

She ran really well in a class 2 race at Worcester in the summer – and gets in today off a 7lb lower mark.

She should improve for a recent spin at Newbury – and with Dickie Johnson back in the saddle, she must have a fair chance.

Chantara Rose is 8/1 and Dubh Eile 5/1, which again, looks fair enough.

4:50: This is quite a tight looking race, but I can see Midnight Jade drifting to a backable price.

She was put in 5/1 last night – but is now 7/1 in a few places.

She is far less exposed than most of her rivals, having had only 5 previous runs under rules – with just one of those over fences.

That was her most recent outing at Southwell, where she showed much improved form to win a modest handicap chase. She’s only been given a 6lb rise for that win – which looks very fair.
She had some decent form in PTPs in Ireland (all on good ground), so it was maybe no surprise that she improved for jumping a fence.

She raced prominently lat time – and that tends to be an advantage at Warwick.
Of the more exposed ones, I would be most interested in Nail ‘M.
He’s got form in better races than this – but he’s already had quite a hard season, so there is a chance this might be one run too many…

Haydock

3:30: Some Buckle is quite weak in this  - but I think he’s the one to beat.

He was trained by Tom George last season – and ran some very creditable races over hurdles (including in the Imperial Cup, when he finished just behind Thistlecrack !).

He was one of a batch of Roger Brookhouse horses who moved from George to Paul Nicholls, and he made his debt over hurdles for Nicholls at Cheltenham in December.
He ran reasonably in that race - and the expectation was that he would step up on that when sent over fences for the first time, at Taunton in January

However the ground was desperate that day – and Some Buckle just didn’t take to it.

Consequently he turns up today on the back of a disappointing run – and I think that explains his price.

My feeling is that he’s a better class of horse than today’s rivals.
It’s also quite interesting that he’s the only horse that Nicholls sends to Haydock.

Cases can be made for the other 4 in the race – but I think they will have to go some to beat Some Buckle.

4:30: This does look most likely to go to one of the top 4 in the market – and my preference is for Lord Landen and Quito de Tresor.
Lord Landen did us a big favour back in December, when winning at Cheltenham – and surprisingly gets to run off a mark just 2lb higher today.

He will have perfect conditions (2m6f and decent ground) – and is Paddy Brennan’s only ride of the day.

There really isn’t a lot to dislike about him – apart from a price of 11/4.

Quito De Tresor is a bigger price - but is also a bit riskier.
He’s a Musselburgh specialist – who really must have decent ground.
He’s not had that recently, so it’s to his credit that he has still be running well.

Todays trip will stretch his stamina – and that is a slight concern.

However, he too is the only runner on the card for his trainer and jockey.

Lord Landen ticks more boxes, so he would be my preference - but there’s little margin in his price.

There is some margin in Quito de Tresor price – but he has a few question marks over him.

It’s a tricky one – with both Listen Boy and Whiskey Ridge, potential flies in the ointment…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.