Daily write-up - Mar 24th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Chepstow and Ludlow in the UK – and Thurles in Ireland…

I know I’ve not mentioned it for the past couple of weeks – but the issue with my phone remains…

Having experienced issues with my broadband the week before Cheltenham – it evolved into issues with my phone line during Cheltenham week.

Thankfully, the broadband was fine that week – but the phone line was completely dead.

Yesterday, the issue returned to the broadband and a BT engineer came out this morning.

Extensive tests have apparently revealed that the problem is underground, somewhere between the green BT box that serves my house - and the telephone pole.

It will be next week before they can look further into it – so until then, I’ve got to keep my fingers crossed (the broadband is very temperamental – but it is still working most of the time).

On the weather front, this looks like it might be our last dry day for a while.

That’s a shame, as I was starting to feel more comfortable assessing the ground.

In truth, most of the damage is now done – the weather has messed up the second half of the season.
It would still have been nice to have some stability during the final week – but it looks like that won’t be the case…

So far as the racing is concerned – then it’s a similar situation to the early part of the week.

The meetings are reasonable enough – and I have views on a few of the races (plus an official eye catcher to discuss !).

Here are my thoughts…

Chepstow

3:15: Nightline was an official eye catcher last time, when he ran at Doncaster.
That run was on the back of a near 4 month absence and he showed up well until weakening between the final two flights.

I would expect that run to have brought him on – and he should relish todays good ground.

This is generally a weaker race than the Doncaster one, so he could have been a decent bet – if it weren’t for the presence of Set in my Ways.

He’s making his handicap debut for Jonjo and is being stepped up markedly in trip, from his runs in novice events.

That makes him immediately of interest – but even more so because he is owned by J P McManus and ridden by Dickie Johnson.

He really could be anything – and the form of his last run, has been franked in no uncertain terms by the horse that finished just behind him.

Nightline has been well backed (he opened 6/1 last night – but is now 9/2 best).
I guess an option would be to back him EW – and accept that you’ll virtually get your money backed if he is placed (which I would expect him to be).
The other possible path is to back him to win – and then save your stake on Set in my Ways.

Suffice to say, whilst cases can be made for a few of the others, I’ll be a little surprised if the race isn’t won by either Nightline of Set in my Way.

3:50: This is a very weak race – and I was quite keen on the chances of Doitforthevillage.

I actually thought he might have slipped under the radar – but I was wrong on that score.

However, he is now a NR, so my views on him are kind of immaterial !

In his absence, I don’t have a strong opinion on the race.

My feeling is that anything could win it – so in the circumstances I would probably plump for Mountain of Mourne, who probably doesn’t deserve to be an 8/1 shot, in this field !

Ludlow

3:05: I thought that Sir Pitt could have been interesting in this, at a price – but he’s another who’s been declared a non runner this morning.
In his absence, I would be inclined to side with likely favourite, Ashcott Boy.

He was a rapid improver in the autumn – and ran reasonably on his return to the fray on unsuitably soft ground at Southwell, a couple of weeks ago.

I would expect that run to have blown away the cobwebs and could see him picking up the winning thread in this.

Certainly I don’t think his 3 main markets rivals, Old Pride, Oficial Ben and Storming Strumpet, set too demanding a standard.

If you can get 4/1 about Ashcott Boy (and that looks quite likely), he could be worth a small play.

4:15: Parsnip Pete completes the hatrick of interesting non runners for today !

I thought he was potential the most interesting of them all – but we’ll have to wait for another day to see him…

In his absence, then the race looks most likely to go to one of the novices that head the market.

It’s not easy to choose between Cloonacoll and Presenting Arms – as both have plenty of potential.

Cloonacool was quite impressive winning a fair race over course and distance on his penultimate outing – and a 4lb higher mark looks workable.

That said, Presenting Arms beat a 141 rated horse on his chasing debut – which is very fair form.

My instinctive feeling is that Cloonacool is the better bet – but at 11/4 and 5/2 respectively, I can probably resist them both.

I’ll also be keeping an eye on Keel Haul.

He did us a favour early in the season and after a few disappointing runs, is down to a mark just 2lb higher today.

I suspect he’ll need to drop a little further still, before he wins again – but the application of a first time visor is an interesting move.

Thurles

2:55: The fact that So Young can be backed at 3/1 for this, suggests he’s not the horse he once was.

3 seasons ago, he was a solid grade 2 performer over hurdles – and if he was still able to operate at that level, he would likely be odds on for this.

He’s only run once since then however – and that was over hurdles 3 weeks ago.
He showed little that day – but he could easily come on massively for the run.

However, the betting suggests that isn’t the case – and unless he’s strong in the market close to the off, the inclination is to think that he won’t be winning.

In that case, this looks between The Winkler, Fine Article and Hurricane Darwin.
The former has got the best chasing form – however, he looks a little limited.

Fine Article has also got some decent chasing form – particularly his debut run in October, behind No More Heroes.

His 2 most recent runs have been disappointing – but it’s interesting to see that he is fitted with first time blinkers this afternoon.

If they have the desired effect, I think he is the most likely winner – and 3/1 isn’t a bad price to be taking a risk on…

Hurricane Darwin is the potential fly in the ointment, as he is making his chasing debut.
He can boast some fair novice hurdle form – and if he does take to fences, he is likely to run very well.

My inclination would be to go with either Fine Article or Hurricane Darwin – probably influenced by the betting.

3:30: I did consider tipping Rebel Cry in this – but I’ve decided against it.

I think he’s got a decent chance, it what is quite a weak contest – particularly with Jack Kennedy taking 3lb off his back.

He was very consistent over hurdles last season, off similar marks to today – and there is a possibility that he will improve a little switching to fences.

However, I do have a niggling concern that 2 miles on good ground may be insufficient test of stamina for him.

He was won over 2 miles – but that was on heavy ground and generally, most of his runs have been over half a mile further.

It’s also not a race in which it is easy to get a handle on all of his rivals.

Most seem quite limited – though that is probably true for him as well !

The one who concerns me most, is Deano.

He looked as if he might make up into a fair chaser – but for a variety of reasons, that hasn’t yet happened.

It’s still early days with him however, and if everything did click this afternoon, I could see him running well.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB

Advice Summary

Eye Catchers

Chepstow 3:15 Nightline