Daily write-up - Mar 19th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Uttoxeter, Fontwell and Newcastle in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

Well, I didn’t see that coming !

I had half a mind to take today off, following the stresses of Cheltenham – but following a quick scan through the overnight declarations, yesterday afternoon, it soon became apparent that my day(s) of rest would have to wait a little while !

After months of desperate ground, at long last, we have some decent racing surfaces.

And after a week of unfathomable handicaps – and ridiculously priced good things – we have some appropriately competitive racing.

We also have a number of official eye catches running in interesting races – and a few unofficial ones as well !

How could I not get involved ?!?!

I’ve ended up tipping in 6 races – and with sufficient time, I’ve little doubt could have tipped in 6 more !

I can’t guarantee a winner, but I’ll be a little disappointed if we don’t get one - or maybe even two !

Here’s my thinking…

Kempton

2:40: Always on the Run did us a favour last time out and off a 9lb higher mark, there’s a fair chance he’ll be able to follow up today.

He was a convincing winner last time – but most of his rivals fell, so it is open to question, what he actually achieved.

He goes up in class today – and more importantly, may be harried for the lead by Ink Master.

If that happens, then I think it will play into the hands of his more patiently ridden rivals.

Sirabad is the obvious one - but the market is wise to him.

Consequently, I think it is worth taking a small chance on Purple N Gold.

This is his first run over fences, after a winter break. However he has recently had a pipe opener on the flat.
That run suggests me that connections want him spot on today.

His form in the autumn, is in higher grade races than todays – so he should find this  race a little easier.

The booking of 5lb claimer David Noonan, is a real positive and I think he’s a decent bet at 10/1…

3:15: The first of the 2 consolation races for horses balloted out at Cheltenham, and I’m not surprised to see Townshend sitting clear at the top of the market.

Not only does he represent the all powerful Mullins/Walsh combination, he also ran last time in the uber competitive race at Fairyhouse, won by Squouateur.

That one might have let the form down yesterday – but I still think it is very strong form.

The fact Townshend was sent off 2/1 fav for that race – on his Irish debut – tells you the regard in which he is held.

He was keen that day – but a hood is fitted today.
He will doubtless take the world of beating – but 2/1 is very short…

My plan was to take him on with a seasoned campaigner – EW.

I was quite keen on Totalise - but he is now a NR.

In his absence, Vercingetrix makes some appeal – but he doesn’t make sufficient appeal for me to tip him…

3:50: This is another very competitive race.

There are quite a few I could be interested in – and that is the issue…

Top of the list is probably official eye catcher, Festive Affair.

He finally gets to run over a 2m4f trip – and I would expect him to run very well.

However there are plenty more whom I would also expect to run well…

I could see Fairy Rath, Ballyboley and Alterilago all performing with credit: whilst I wouldn’t discount big runs from Cernunnus, Orbasa and De Faoithesdream.

Interestingly, at least half of the above named like to front run – so this race could be run at a searching gallop.

That could suit Festive Dream, assuming his jumping holds up – and it could also suit Ballyboley.

They would be my two against the field – but on a day like today, I don’t feel the need to force a tip.

Uttoxeter

3:00: I’m quite keen to take on favourite Henri Pari Morgan in this – as he’s up 13lb for a romp in the Chepstow mud.

He’s running a higher grade race today – and on quicker ground, I don’t think he’ll find things anywhere near as easy.
I also want to take on second favourite, Abracadabra Sivola, who despite winning last time out, has disappointed me this season…

My 3 against the field are Run Ructions run, April Dusk and Smooth Stepper.

I’m keenest on Run Ructions run (though the fact she’s the biggest price, may be a factor in that !).

She’s faced some very tough tasks, since winning on her chasing debut.

Based on her hurdles form, she is handicapped to go very close this afternoon – and she appears just as effective over fences as she was over the smaller obstacles.

April Dusk is the potential fly in the ointment – particularly if well backed.

He was impressive when winning over the course in December - and would have gone very close but for falling on his following run at Leicester.

He had a confidence booster over hurdles last time – and if that has done the trick he is likely to go very close this afternoon.

Smooth Stepper is the other one of interest.

His last 2 runs have been very good – and he doesn’t look badly handicapped.

I could have split stakes across the 3 – but I decided to just go with the first 2 named and keep my fingers crossed !!

3:35: Muhtaris is another one of those horses who will be inextricably linked with the 201516 TVB season…

I tipped him at Ascot on his penultimate outing, when everything went wrong and he was pulled up: I then chose not to tip him on his next run at Newbury, when everything went right and he was a comfortable winner.

He yinged: I yanged…

Hopefully we can be in sync today.

Certainly I think he can cope with a 6lb weight rise – though this is a tougher race.

I think the surfeit of likely pace will help him though – and I can tell you now, if he does cut through the pack close home, I’ll take a lot of pleasure from it !

The other one of significant interest, is Braavos.

He is a rare beast, in so much as he’s an official eye catcher who I didn’t see run !

However, I did see the two horses he split run (Agrapart and Flying Angel) – and they have franked his form in no uncertain terms.

He was a gutsy winner on his only subsequent race – and I’m sure he is very well handicapped on a mark of 120.
I would have liked to see Dickie in the saddle – but then I doubt he would have been a 6/1 shot !
Thomas Cheeseman rode him to victory last time – so there is no reason why he won’t ride him well this afternoon.

I was sorely tempted to split stakes on him – but just feel the race is a little too competitive to be taking a short price.

Of the others, then Chef D’Oeuvre and Champagne at Tara are the most obvious dangers – but they are not the only ones.

Masterplan is a back to lay in running option – even though there could be a lot of pace in the race.

4:10: Sizing Coal looks the obvious one for the Midlands Grand National – but he’s been found by the market.

He finished third in last years Irish National, off a mark just 4lb lower – and arrives today on the back of an eye catching hurdle run.

He represents the same connections that took this race 12 months ago – and is likely to take a bit of beating.

That said, 6/1 is plenty short enough in an 18 runner handicap…

At bigger prices, then Mad Brian would be a danger if recapturing his old form.

The fact he’s been sent over from Ireland suggests he is fancied: whilst Subtle Grey is quite interesting for Donald McCain. He’s only a novice – and his best form is on softer ground – but I still think he could go well.

Fontwell

3:10: Altesse de Guye is another horse with strong links to this season.
However, unlike Mutharis, she and I have been in relative harmony.

I tipped her EW at Ascot, when she finished second to Desert Queen: and I resisted tipping her last time at Towcester, when she was fourth after a break.

That was an eye catching run (officially speaking) – and I was pretty keen to be on her next time (which is today !).
I would have preferred her to be running in a less classy race – but I’m pretty sure she is a fair bit better than her current mark.

I am happy to take on most of her rivals, for one reason or another – though Sunshine Corner does worry me.

I guess I could have tipped her as a saver – but I’ve opted to save stakes with a place bet on Altesse instead (and hope the dead 8 go to post !).

I’m sure she will run well – and I’m very optimistic that even if she doesn’t win, she will go very close.

3:45: I’m pretty keen on Sun Wild Life in this…

Back down to his last winning mark – and running on decent ground, which he should appreciate.

The form of his last run also looks pretty good now. That was at Kempton, when he finished fourth behind Silvergrove and A Good Skin.

Those 2 subsequently went on to fill the places in the Kim Muir at the festival.

The slight concern with him, is the trip. It’s not that he won’t stay it, just that he’s unproven over it.

I also very much like the booking of apprentice Paul O’Brien – he’s good value for his 7lb claim.

The Cider Maker and Fight Commander are the two obvious dangers – but they have been winning races on softer ground and going up the handicap as a consequence.
They won’t find things as easy today.

Gowran Park

3:20: Diamond Cauchois is another one that I’m pretty keen on this afternoon.

Following a decisive win on his Irish debut, he ran in the very hot race at Fairyhouse, won by Squouateur.

He finished fifth in that race - just 4 lengths behind Townshend.

That one is 9/4 favourite for a strong race at Kempton this afternoon – whereas Diamond Cuachois is 5/1 to win this much lesser event.

That strikes me as value !

He gets to run off the same mark this afternoon – over the same trip and on similar ground.

In short, there is no reason why he won’t run his race.

It’s impossible to be adamant about his rivals – but most of the others who are prominent in the betting are returning from spells over fences. I would be a little disappointed if Diamond Cauchois can’t cope with them.

Verewal could be interesting for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend – but the market doesn’t seem overly keen on him.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Advice Summary

Tips

Kempton 2:40 Purple N Gold 0.25pt win 10/1

Uttoxeter 3:00 Run Ructions Run 0.25pt win 12/1

Uttoxeter 3:00 April Dusk 0.125pt win 13/2

Uttoxeter 3:35 Muhtaris 0.125pt win 16/1

Fontwell 3:10 Altesse de Guye 0.25pt win, 0.125pt place 11/1

Fontwell 3:45 Sun Wild Life 0.375pt win 15/2

Gowran Park 3:20 Diamond Cauchois 0.375pt win 5/1

Eye Catchers

Kempton 3:50 Festive Affair 

Uttoxeter 3:35 Braavos

Fontwell 3:10 Altesse de Guye