Daily write-up - Mar 29th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Hexham and Southwell in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Neither of the UK meetings have much to recommend them – but the final day of the Fairyhouse Easter meeting, is an excellent card.

There are definite betting opportunities – though issuing tips, remains as tricky as ever.

This is clearly an area which I need to adjust, for next season. I’ve got a couple of ideas on how I might achieve this – and I will cover them in the end of season report…

Just a reminder to those who are planning to attend: the TVB trip to the races, takes place this Saturday, at Uttoxeter.

I’ve updated the forum post, to suggest a meeting point – if anyone has any questions/comments (Nick has made a good point this morning), then please use the thread.

Everyone who is able to attend, will be more than welcome. Details of the timings, prices etc. can be fond on the Uttoxeter racecourse website:

http://www.uttoxeter-racecourse.co.uk/horse-racing/racing-home.php

I’ve no thoughts on Hexham or Southwell – but quite a few on Fairyhouse.

Here they are…

Fairyhouse

3:55: If the ground were a bit softer, I would take a chance on Flemenstar in this.
I suspect there is very little between him and favourite Top Gamble – and whilst both would prefer very soft ground, I suspect that Top Gamble is less fussy.

As the ground was riding yesterday, I think it would slightly favour Top Gamble – but a few showers today, could easily swing things in favour of Flemenstar.

I suspect he’s as big as 5/1, because he disappointed last time. However, that was in a grade 1 at Ascot – and Flemenstar is a notoriously poor traveller.

I think you can put a line through that performance.

Prior to that run, Flemenstar had shown himself not far off grade 1 level – despite now being 11 years old.

I don’t think that Top Gamble is any better than a Grade 2 horse – which is why I think there should be little between them.

The only other one in the field that I could be interested in, is Sizing Granite.

I tipped him at Cheltenham, but a mistake at the first put pay to his chances.

That run can be ignored - but what can’t be ignored, is that the horse has a marked preference for quick ground.

He won’t get that today – and that has to detract from his chances.

I wouldn’t completely dismiss him – as the ground is unlikely to be desperate and he may also be a spring horse. However, I will be a little surprised if he can beat Flemenstar and Top Gamble.

4:30: There were 4 who originally interested me in this: Space Cadet, Coney Island, Kinnity Castle and Chain Gang.

The first 3 named headed the market – but it was Chain Gang who really appealed.

He was 16/1 chance, which seemed much too big – but he has been declared a non runner, this morning.

That’s a shame – though it’s interesting to note that Stowaway Shark has been backed – and like Chain Gang, he is owned by Barry Connel.

It could just be coincidence - but then again…

In truth, it’s a near impossible race to get a proper handle on, so there has to be an element of guesswork.

Space Cadet is the most likely to run his race – but 6 second placings and a third, from his 9 runs under rules, is a cause for concern (unless you plan to back him EW !).

Coney Island ran in a grade 1 last time, suggesting that he is well thought of by connections.

He will certainly find it a bit easier running off a mark of 130 in a handicap !

Kinnity Castle actually has little to recommend him from the form book – but he is trained by Tony Martin and was sent off 2/1 fav in a handicap won by Squouateur, on his latest run.
He was pulled up that day – but the suggestion is, that he is much better than that.

He runs off a mark of just 109 – which could seriously under-estimate his ability.

I guess I wouldn’t back Space Cadet to win – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the other 3 come home in front (with Space Cadet hot on their heels !).

5:05: The market says that 3 stand out in this: Desoto Country, Anibale Fly and Clondaw Warrior – and it’s difficult to disagree.

If you are after the race winner, then I wouldn’t suggest looking much further – though whether any of the 3 represent ‘value’ is a different matter.

Certainly, I would be a little surprised if they filled the first 3 places – as non of them are rock solid.

The case for Desoto Country is probably the most compelling – but 5/2 in a 15 runner handicap, has no attraction.

Of the bigger priced runners, then Mick Thonic and Art of Payroll hold most appeal.
If there is to be a ‘shock’, then the first named is most likely to cause it.

He’s got lots of scope for improvement, and 14/1 isn’t a bad price.
Art of Payroll is more likely to run his race, so 20/1 (5/1 to be placed), also seems a fair enough bet.

That said, I wouldn’t be putting either up with a great deal of conviction…

5:35: When I first looked at this race, I just couldn’t see what was going to win it.

I have a sequence, in which I check out the horses – and as I worked down the list, it seemed that every runner was either poorly handicapped, out of form, or just plain limited..!

The last horse I looked at was Caras Oscar – and Eureka – the winner (hopefully !).

In fairness to me, it’s easy to see why he was the last horse I looked at.
He carries top weight, hasn’t run for 9 months – and when he did last run, he finished well beaten.

However, when I looked a little closer, I saw things differently…

Caras Oscar is clearly a fragile horse.He’s now 10 – and has only run 12 times in his life.

However, he’s won 4 of those races – so has a 33% strike rate.

He’s also won the twice he’s run at Fairyhouse – both time at the Easter meeting.
Robbie Power was on board on each occasion – and he also rode him for one of his other wins (he’s only been beaten on him once).

It looks to me as if this horse has been prepped with this one race in mind (or at least, this meeting).

I’m a massive fan of his trainer Colm Murphy – if anyone can get one ready after an absence, he can.

From a handicapping perspective, despite top weight, Caras Oscar isn’t badly handicapped (he beat Jarob off level weights at this meeting last year – and that one is now rated 1lb higher than Caras Oscar).

Bearing in mind the ‘quality’ of the opposition, then I think Caras Oscar is a very good bet.

I’ve almost certainly under-staked him – though we are taking a risk on his fitness.

Suffice to say, I’ll be a little disappointed if he doesn’t win…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Fairyhouse 5:35 Caras Oscar 0.25pt win 7/1