Daily write-up - Mar 21st

There are 3 meetings today, at Taunton, Southwell and Kelso.

After all the excitement of last week, it’s back down to earth today.

3 standard mid week meetings.

All will be run on better ground than of late – but still, the field sizes are generally small…

I’m sure a few of you picked up that there are a couple of official eye catchers running this afternoon (the Grey Taylor and Vicenzo Mio).

I could be interested in them both: but their prices were tight last night and have only got tighter this morning.

Hopefully one or two of you, availed yourselves of some early value

Here are my thoughts on the races they are running in – plus a few others…

Taunton

3:40: I’ve tipped Vicenzo Mio the last twice he has run – and I would quite like to tip him again today. However, he’s been put in 15/8 favourite – and I don’t want to play as that price…

In fairness to the bookmakers there are only 5 runners – and Tamarillo Grove looks an unlikely winner – so Vicenzo Mio was never going to be much of a price.

Objectively, 15/8 isn’t actually a bad price – as I think he is the most likely winner, though General Ginger isn’t easy to assess.

The other issue with small fields, is the danger of a false pace/tactical race.

Hopefully that won’t happen, as Tamarillo Grove is a confirmed front runner.

If however, he doesn’t take up that role then things will become a lot more uncertain.

The other potential issue, is that Vicenzo Mio can take a bit of settling.

So again, a lack of pace could make things very difficult for him.

If Tamrillo Grove sets off in front: and General Ginger isn’t way ahead of his mark; then I think Vincenzo Mio should win.

Whether that’s worth a risk at 15/8, I’ll let you decide…

4:10: If I could be sure that My Brother Sylvest would be ridden aggressively in this, then I think he would be worth a bet.

He’s back on decent ground (which is key), racing on a sharp track – and has had a decent break since running disappointingly on unsuitably soft ground at Musselburgh.

He’s handicapped to win: whilst the booking of 5lb claimer, Michael Heard, just adds to his case.

The concern is that he might be held up – as was the case, last time at Musselburgh. If that happens, then in all probability, connections are waiting for another day…

I guess you have 2 choices, if you want to get involved: either wait to see if he is backed near the off – he’s currently a 15/2 shot, but really could be half that price, if fancied: Or wait until the race begins and see if he sets off to try and make all.

In both cases, you will obviously have to take a much shorter price – but at last you’ll be pretty confident that the horse will be doing his best to win.

Southwell

2:10: I’m quite keen on the two eye catchers that are running today – but I’m even keener on Owen na View.

12 months ago to the day, he cantered all over Village Vic, at Newbury – and that one ran creditable in last weeks grade 1 Ryanair chase !

Owen na View has run 15 times since that win – and only managed to record a couple of subsequent victories.

However, there have been lots of valid reasons why he’s not been more successful.

Generally, he’s been running in much better contests; on the ‘wrong’ ground; or over hurdles.

Today is the first time in a good while, that he’s had his ideal conditions: 2 miles, fences and quick ground – and he’s back down to his last winning mark.

All things being equal, I struggle to see him losing.

However, once again this is a small field race (just 6 runners) – and there is no guaranteed pace.
Owen na View needs to be held up – and is quite a keen goer.

A lack of pace in the race, really could ruin his chance.

I’d still be inclined to take a chance at a price – but 7/4 isn’t really a price you want to be taking a chance at...

2:40: This looks quite an open contest, and whilst I can see the cases for Thoonavolla and Santa Secret, they look to have been priced up plenty short enough.

I think Toowoomba might represent better value, for Philip Hobbs and Tom O’Brien.

He won at Warwick in December – but has struggled on his last 3 outings.
However, they have been on very soft ground and I suspect he will appreciate the return to better ground this afternoon.

If he does, then he’s not badly handicapped – and the trip and track should be fine for him.

There are 2 or 3 in the race who I can’t fancy (Somchine and Lord Grantham), so a price of 10/1 about Toowoomba isn’t too bad…

Kelso

2:30: Of the 2 favourites, I prefer the claims of Present Flight in this – but it might be worth taking a small risk on Ueueteotl.

He finished well in front of Present Flight, when the two horses clashed at Doncaster earlier in the season.

He is also a couple of pounds better off today – though that’s probably immaterial, as Present Flight broke a blood vessel, that day.

Ueueteotl disappointed badly last time out – but that was on soft ground at Catterick.

He generally performs better of good ground, so I would expect a much improved preference today.

That said, he’s certainly not one I would be confident about – I just think that at 9/2, in a 5 horse race, back on conditions that suit, could represent a bit of value.

3:30: The Grey Taylor is the second official eye catcher to be running today – and I think he’s got a very good chance.

He was given little chance of winning last time out, when he chase a suicidal pace at Musselburgh.

The fact he led, almost to the final fence, says lot for his ability.

He should get an uncontested lead today – and will be happier on the quick ground.

There is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race – and if he does, he will be tough to beat.

That said, there are a couple of potential dangers in the race, namely Lightening Rod and Yorkist. I also think that Jet Master is over priced at 16/1.

I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off supporting The Grey Taylor – I just don’t see a lot of margin in a price of 7/4.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Eye Catchers

Kelso 3:30 The Grey Taylor  

Taunton 3:40 Vicenzo Mio