Daily write-up - Mar 2nd

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wincanton and Bangor-on-Dee.

A third meeting was scheduled for Downpatrick in the north of Ireland – but it has been abandoned due to snow and rain.

We’ve not had much snow this winter.

Apparently it has been the warmest winter since records began – in 1659 !

The average daily temperature has been 7 degrees – hardly tropical – but not really arctic either.

I suspect the mild weather explains why some stables have been badly out of form for most of the season.

Bugs have got into the yards – and there has been no freezing temperatures to kill them off…

I was a little surprised to read that it wasn’t the wettest winter on record as well (apart from in Scotland, where it was the wettest on record).

It feels like there hasn’t been a dry spell, since November – though I guess that generally speaking, the rain hasn’t been incessant.

There has been a dry day – followed by a rainy day.

Consequently getting a handle on the going (which is my main issue !) has been nearly impossible.

I couldn’t believe how heavy the ground looked at Catterick and Leicester yesterday, (bearing in mind the previous dry week) – and I guess I’ve not much idea what to expect at Wincanton and Bangor today.

Consequently, I’m continuing to tread carefully…

Aside from that, there’s not much else to report.

Cheltenham looms on the horizon (less than 2 weeks away) – and a few of the bookmakers are now going NRNB on all races.

Once the majority are doing so, I’ll consider one or two early festival tips.

As for today – then no tips – just a few mentions, as we get ourselves back into the groove.
Here are my thoughts…

Wincanton

2:45: La Vaticane is the one of most interest in this – but she makes limited appeal at 5/2.

She is returning from a 2 month absence – and this will be her fourth run of the season.

The previous 3 were all in better quality contests than todays – and she ran well in them all.

However, she didn’t manage to get her head in front – and that’s a bit of a concern.

Certainly last time, she had a lot going for her – and could only finish fifth.

Blinkers are applied for the first time today – and if the issue is in her head, she should win this. However, I don’t feel the price is really there to be taking a risk.

That said, the opposition look quite limited, so she might struggle to lose !

The dark horse is Si C’Etait Vrai for Neil Mullholland.

He was a decent horse in Ireland 18 months ago – but was pulled up on his only run for Mullholland, at Newbury in November.
That said, he was an 8/1 shot that day in a better race than todays – so the suggestion is that he was fancied.

He might have been worth a risk at a price – but 5/1 is too tight with all the guesswork involved.

That said, if he shortens further in the betting, I wouldn’t oppose him lightly.

3:55: Tagrita is the closest I got to a tip today.

She’s 11/4 for this – but I don’t think that’s a bad price.

In fact, it’s the main thing that is putting me off her – as I expected it to be shorter !

She won well over course and distance last time – and I don’t think a 6lb rise is overly harsh.

She has ticks in almost every box, so 2/1 or less would have felt quite reasonable to me…

I guess the worry is, that her 3 main rivals are difficult to get a proper handle on.

The Harry Fry trained Bim Bm Boum, has his first run in a handicap – he could be anything.

Murrayana switches to hurdles after 4 reasonable runs over fences – and is Dickie Johnsons only ride of the day (and unusually, for Colin Tizzard).

Somerset Jim was a massively impressive winner over course and distance last time –and whilst he has been given a 16lb hike in the weights the handicapper is guessing…

Without guidance from the market, it feels like an impossible race to assess.

If Tagrita is supported in the market and goes off close to 2/1, I think she’ll win – but significant money for any of the other 3, would make me very wary about supporting her.

Bangor

3:05: I thought that Cloudy Beach won well enough last time to remain of interest next time off a 6lb higher mark – but that was without seeing the opposition he faced !

He faces a couple of potential very dangerous rivals today, in the shape of Not for You and Supreme Asset.

The former is trained by Charles Byrnes in Ireland – so the very fact he is running at Bangor, makes him of interest.

He actually ran at Chepstow as recently as Saturday, and looked a little unfortunate not to collect there.

He must have every chance of going one better today (and will likely be backed to do so).

Supreme Asset is from the Donald McCain stable, which is gradually finding some kind of form, having been badly out of sorts for most of the season.
The horses is potentially very well handicapped – and if it can bounce back to form, must have every chance, under what are near ideal conditions.

It doesn’t feel like a race, where you could bet with confidence - but Supreme Asset at 5/1, is the value call, without market guidance.

3:40: This is a very open race – and it’s not easy to split the market principals.

If forced to opt for one, I would go with Romulus du Donjoon – but it wouldn’t be with a great deal of conviction.
Of more interest would be Quincy de Pictons – if he were supported in the market.

He is 12 years old, horribly out of form and better over fences – but he gets to run from a mark 21lb lower than the mark from which he bolted up over fences, just over 12 months ago.

In short, he is potentially spectacularly well handicapped - if connections have him ready to go for it.

The market will likely tell on that score – he can be backed at 12/1 now but I would expect closer to half that, if he was going to run well.

If the money doesn’t arrive, then I would suggest a watching brief on the race…

4:15: Son of Suzie is in danger of running out of excuses - but this is the weakest race he’s contested for a long time.

He’s dropped 10lb since he was the first tip of this TVB season - and he’s been returned favourite on his 2 most recent runs.

Connections step him up to a marathon trip today (3m5f) – and reach for first time cheek pieces.

It’s an interesting double move (and not one I particularly like !) – but if it works, he could outclass his rivals.

I’m pretty sure that he will look like the winner for much of the race (so back in advance to lay in running, could be a good move) – the question is whether he will get home.

I’ve no idea on that score – but if he does, I think he should win very easily.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.