Daily write-up - Mar 3rd

The meeting scheduled for Clonmel, has been washed away - but they still race this afternoon, at Ludlow and Taunton…

They are both reasonable meetings, for a mid-week – with races of interest on both cards.

As you would expect, there is a question mark over the going – and I’ve issued just the one small tip…

I’ve added last weeks ‘eye catchers’ to the forum.

I’ve now been logging the eye catchers for a month, so progressively more of them should be returning to the track.

As I’ve said previously, I would expect them to become a significant driver for the daily write-up – though I guess Cheltenham may impact that in the short term.

There’s no eye catchers running today, however – but one or two interesting horses, non the less.

Here are my thoughts…

Ludlow

3:05: I’m hopeful that Top Cat Henry can pick up the winning thread in this…

Formerly trained in Ireland by Kieran Percall, he joined the stable of Dr. Richard Newland, just over 12 months ago.

He had 4 runs for Dr Newland last season – all over hurdles – and performed reasonably well in them all.

However, he looked an improved performer when switching to fences in October of this season.

He won at Fontwell on his seasonal debut, before being placed in good class events at Stratford and Cheltenham on his next 2 runs.

On the back of those runs, he was sent off a 10/1 shot for the class 2 Grand Sefton chase over the big fences at Aintree’s December meeting – despite running from 9lb out of the handicap.
He was a little disappointing that day – and on his only subsequent run, at Market Rasen, just after Christmas.

He’s had a 2 month break since then, which should have to freshened him up – and he returns to the track today on better ground (which should suit him).

He has been dropped back to the mark that he was placed off, at Stratford and Cheltenham and I’m sure he can win a race from it – the question is whether it will be today...

That I can’t be so sure about – though I am sure that he will have no issue with the trip and the ground should be OK (provided it isn’t very soft).

The track is an unknown – and his absence can be read either positively or negatively…

My suspicion is that the horse is being aimed at the Topham, at the Grand National meeting – and in order to get into that race, he will need a win beforehand.

Connections are running out of time to achieve that, so hopefully they will be going for it today (I’m sure the market will advise, close to the off).

Of the others, then I respect the chances of Hollywoodien – but he offers little value at 3/1.

By the Boardwalk offers more value at 12/1 – though his fitness would be a concern, after 3 months off the track.

3:40: I was hoping I could find an angle into this race – but the market seems to have it about right.

The unexposed Nexius, is the most interesting runner in the race – but he’s been installed the 2/1 fav.

He certainly has plenty of potential – but that price is tight enough in a competitive race.

Royal Palladium is the obvious one to take him on with.
He ran a cracker in the Badge Ales chase on his seasonal debut – and after a few disappointing runs, gets in off a mark just 1lb higher this afternoon.
Trip, ground and course will suit him perfectly, so if Venetia has managed to rekindle the flame, he is very much the one to beat.

That said, if Venetia has managed to rekindle the flame in his stablemate, Drumshambo, the others won’t see which ways he goes !

He is running from a mark 34lb lower than the one he was operating from 2 years ago – and as he’s only 10, he really shouldn’t be in terminal decline.

However, he is only running from a mark 3lb lower than last time – and he was well beaten then…

I think the trip could be a bit too far for Big Society – and Galway Jack (though trying him over it, is an interesting move).

Conversely it may not be a sufficient stamina test for Sun Cloud or Top Wood.

Kilbree Kid doesn’t look particularly well handicapped – whilst Foundry Square is likely to need the run.
In short, Royal Palladium sets the standard – but Nexius may well be up to surpassing it.
Drumshambo is the potential fly in the ointment – though only ‘believers’ are likely to support him !

4:15: She’ll probably be collared up the home straight, but Lady of Longstone should be a good back pre-race to lay in running, play in this…

She is almost guaranteed to front run – and she has a tendency to get up a lead which makes the in running players nervous.

She ran well enough last time out on ground that would have been far too heavy for her, on the back of a 2 month absence.
She’s been dropped 2lb for that run – and on todays more suitable surface, I can see her lasting longer than most will expect.

It wouldn’t completely surprise me, if she managed to pull of a shock and steal the race – though the safe play would be to secure a profit before the second last hurdle...

Taunton

3:50: I’m not convinced that Vazaro Delafayette is one to be taking a very short price about in this…

Yes, he was ultimately an impressive winner at Huntingdon last week; and yes he is effectively 6lb ‘well in’ running under a penalty this afternoon – but I think that over simplifies things.

He looks a very ‘quirky’ (if talented) individual – and early in the Huntingdon race, he looked a most unlikely winner.

His jumping was poor – and he had a tendency to go left (not ideal on a right handed course).

Todays race is better quality – and I doubt he will get way with such shoddiness.

Strictly on the book, he shouldn’t beat Fight Commander, who had him well behind when winning last time (also at Huntingdon).

It would probably be wrong to take that form purely at face value – but against that, respective odds of 6/4 and 6/1 appear even more wrong !

The other one of interest, is Nitrogen.

It s a concern that he’s not run for 3 months – but he showed distinct promise when he did last run, at Newbury in December.
Todays step up in trip should help him and his chance has to be respected.

That said, if I did play in the race, I would be most inclined to go with Fight Commander to confirm the form with Vazaro…

4:25: This is another trappy race – and it’s not easy to choose between the front 4 in the market…

It’s not helped by the fact that they have very different form lines – so trying to find ways to compare them, isn’t easy.

My inclination is to side with course specialist, Tornado in Milan.

He won over today course and distance 2 runs back – and then performed really creditably last time out, over 3 furlongs shorter.

That was probably in a better race than todays, so off the same mark, it’s difficult to think he won’t be there or thereabouts…

The trouble is, one of the other 3 could progress past him.

The market will likely guide on that possibility – so if it doesn’t shout for any of them, I would stick with Tornado in Milan.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(E) Ludlow 3:05 Top Cat Henry 0.25pt win 8/1