Cheltenham - Day 1

Day 1 of the 2016 Cheltenham festival – and unbelievably the meeting will open on ground described as good to soft, and quickening by the day…

Bearing in mind the deluge of rain that has fallen over the last 3 months, that seems incredible.
As recently as last Tuesday, an inch of rain fell on Prestbury Park – yet it wouldn’t surprise me, if selective watering takes place on Wednesday or Thursday evening.
The course clearly has no drainage issues.

At least we know where we stand with the ground – which hasn’t been the case for so many meetings during the past few months !

Knowing where we stand with the runners however, is a slightly different matter.

The Mullins camp caused a stir when not declaring Yorkhill for today’s opening Supreme novice hurdle. The horse had been well backed last week, but has been re-routed to tomorrows Neptune hurdle.

However, that was nothing compared to the bombshell dropped this morning when it was announced that Vautour would run the Ryanair rather than the Gold Cup.

Just last week, owner Rich Ricci said that the horse either ran in the Gold Cup or stayed at home.

It’s no exaggeration to say that ante-post punting without inside information is a complete lottery.

You may hit lucky – but you are just as likely to fall flat on your face.

I decided to leave the mate-post markets alone this year (officially speaking, anyway !) – so whilst I’ve got a lot of races to tackle ‘on the day’ – at least I’ve got a good hand on the key variables (ie. the runners and the going !).

That said, even with all the knowledge you can possibly acquire, solving the races isn’t easy.

The races are either too simple – or too difficult ! (oh for some of the middle ground !).

I’ve ended up tipping in 5 of the days races – but have also previewed the other 2.

As is invariably the case, I’ve gravitated towards the longer priced runners and ‘value’.

Lets hope that some of thattheoretical value has turned into actual profit, by the end of the week !

1:30: The opening race of the festival, and it will be a little surprising if it’s not won by either Willie Mullins(Min, backed up by Bellshill), or Nicky Henderson (Altior, backed up by Buveur D’Air).

I put forward Altior as a novice hurdler to follow, when I did my pre-season preview for the SBC, back in October.

He was 25/1 for this race then – so it’s nice to see that he has repaid my faith (he is a best price 9/2, now).

Hopefully one or two of you are on him at the fancy prices…

He should certainly run well, though whether he will run well enough to beat Min, is a different matter.

It’s nearly impossible to compare the two of them – though instinctively, I feel Min is the more likely winner.

That’s reflected in the prices however, so there is no edge in that statement.

Of the stable back-ups, I prefer Buveur D’Air to Bellshill – but once again, so does the market…

The next 3 in the betting are Supasundae, Tombstone and Silver Concord.
Again, I think the market has them positioned about right.

A case of sorts can be made for each of them – though it would be a little surprising if they were able to overturn the ‘big 2’.

Of the 3, then I most like the chances of Silver Concord.
He won the Championship bumper 2 seasons ago – and whilst his hurdling career hasn’t gone to script – he has the natural ability to go very close in this – and the drying ground will be a big help.

Of the rank outsiders, then I could see Holly Bush Henry outrunning his odds of 66/1 – but probably not sufficiently, to place.

In summary, I had in the back of my mind that I might make Min a Top Pick – and I’m quite surprised that he can be backed at odds of 9/4.

However, it is impossible to know how good he is – and the lack of market confidence is a worry.

I’d love to see Altior win – but I think he is more likely to place.

If forced to bet in the race, I would probably take a risk on Silver Concord at 16/1.

A safer option would be Tombstone EW – as I certainly think he is capable of placing (though I would be a little surprised if he won).

2:10: With Douvan considered possibly the best horse Willie Mullins has ever trained, it is no surprise to see him an unbackable 2/5 shot in this.

It may be an exaggeration to say that he’s only got to jump round – but if he does fence cleanly and is beaten, it will be an enormous shock…

He’s won his 3 novice chases this season, very comfortably – adding to his 4 hurdle wins from last season.

Unfortunately his reputation has scared away a number of his rivals (they are now contesting the JLT race on Wednesday), so he won’t be tested as fully as he might have been.

That’s the downside of a 4 day festival (the best can avoid the best, if they want to) – but it’s the way it is…

In terms of who will chase him home: then Sizing John and Vaniteux look the most likely - and despite Vaniteux having the better form in the book, I would slightly prefer the former.

I could also give Baltimore Rock a chance of placing.

Previously trained by Daid Pipe, he was beaten on his debut for Neil Mullholland, in the Chepstow mud.
I would expect him to improve for that run and could see him running better than his odds imply.

Unfortunately, with only 7 runners, that means he would need to finish second (which is a little unlikely) in order to collect on an EW bet.

However, can be backed at 16/1 in the ‘without Douvan’ market – which means he would be 4/1 to finish in the first 3 (assuming Douvan was also in the 3).

That seems a fair - if unspectacular…

Finally, if you’ve no financial interest in the race, make sure you are cheering on Fox Norton.

He’s owned by one of our number, Brian – and is likely to give him quite a thrill this afternoon.

He may not be quite good enough to win: but the quickening ground will be in his favour – and having Dickie in the saddle is never a bad thing !

Best of luck, Brian !

2:50: I doubt there will be a more competitive race than this, run all week…

The market is headed by Out Sam and Holywell – and both could be very well handicapped horses.

Out Sam is on the upgrade and seems to have got in lightly – however, his ability to deal with a 24 runner field has to be taken on trust.

Holywell won this race 2 seasons ago – and was fourth in last years Gold Cup.

Based on that, a mark of 153 looks very lenient – but he’s been completely out of form.
However, if the market support for him remains to the off, he will be difficult to ignore.

Kruzhlinin is the obvious one if you are playing with a straight bat - though a 10lb rise for his last time win at Kempton, won’t have helped his chances.

I’ve decided to split stakes across 2 of the runners:

The first being a very old friend, Morning Assembly.

I had sky-high hopes for him a couple of seasons ago, when he was a novice.

His defeat of Don Cossack had me dreaming of Cheltenham glory – and I was a little disappointed he could only finish third in that seasons RSA chase.

However, the horse immediately in front of him was Smad Place – and whilst that one has improved this season (now rated 169), the form makes Morning Assembly looked well handicapped on a mark of 150.

He had 18 months off the track but his 2 recent comeback races seem to suggest that all the old ability remains – and if that is the case, I think he will go very close.

The other one I want on side, at a much bigger price, is Ballykan.

He is just a novice – but ran some fair races in the autumn before being put away for a mid winter break.

He reappeared in the Betbright chase at Kempton at the end of last month and ran a cracker to finish fourth to Theatre Guide.

That should have blown away the cobwebs – and whilst it’s a big ask for a novice, I think he can go very well in this off a mark of just 136.

There are plenty of other dangers in the race, but there are 3 in particular at big prices, who would be of significant interest, if well supported in the market:

Regal Encore: Southfield Theatre and Spring Heeled.

The other one worthy of a quick mention is Band of Blood.

He was an official eye catcher, when running at Doncaster 10 days ago.

I’m not convinced this is the right race for him (I think he wants more of a stamina test) – but it is interesting that Dr Newland is letting him take his chance…

3:30: The defection of Faugheen has thrown this race wide open.
Horses that previously looked likely to place at best, have now got a real chance of winning.

I spent a lot of time turning the race round – but again, came to the conclusion that the bookmakers have it about right…

As many of you will be aware, I have an issue with 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle (I think they lack the physical maturity to compete with top class elders at level weights): that eliminated 4 of the runners.

Victory for My Tent or Yours, after over 700 days off the track, will be almost unprecedented: whilst neither Sempre Medici nor Sign of a Victory, look good enough.

That left me with a short list of 5:

Camping Ground, Identity Thief, Nichols Canyon, The New One and Annie Power.

If the ground was heavy (or even soft), Camping Ground would undoubtedly be the value play.
However I can’t see the quickish ground suiting him.

The other 4 are the top 4 in the betting: which is always disappointing – if not too surprising…

There is not a lot between Nichols Canyon and Top Notch – so if I don’t fancy the latter, I can’t really support the former (at much shorter odds).
I’m not a fan of Nichols Canyon – and I also don’t like the way that there was never any possibility of Ruby riding him.

Instead, he rides Annie Power – and she is a worthy favourite (particularly in receipt of 7lb) – but she is risky…

Firstly there is the trip – then there is her jumping.

There is also the fact that she isn’t really proven (as bar one race, she has spent her life running against grossly inferior horses).

All this left me with The New One…

I was very keen on him for the Champion 2 seasons back, when his chance was severely compromise by the fall of Our Connor.

He was a little disappointing last season – but had physical issues (a kissing spine).

Those issues have not plagued him this season – and he’s won 2 of his 3 starts (beaten by Faugheen on the other).

Simply, in Faugheens absence, I think he sets the standard.

It is quite possible that something will improve past him – but I think that’s what will need to happen.

On balance, I figured it was better to go with what I consider the best horse in the race, rather than find one that might step up to his level.

4:10: Of all the races on day 1, I’ve spent longest looking at this one.
The main reason is because I feel that favourite, Vroum Vroum Mag, is vulnerable.

I’m not saying she can’t win – I just think a quote of even money is too short for a horse who has a number of question marks hanging over her…

She’s unproven on todays ground; has better form over fences – and whilst she comprehensively won on her only previous run in the UK, there are reasons for thinking that most of her rivals that day, ran below form…

A lot of her price, is due to the fact that she is substituting for super mare, Annie Power. However, she is yet to demonstrate a level of ability anyway near that achieved by Annie Power.

Time may show that she is just as good - but as yet, that hasn’t happened…

All this said, whilst it’s one thing wanting to take her on – it’s quite another finding the right horse to take her on with…

In truth, I was a bit spoilt for choice, with 4 or 5 possible candidates.

The most obvious is Polly Peachum.

We were on her last year when she was beaten by inches –and I would fully expect her to go close again today.
The only issue I have with her is her price. She’s a 6/1 shot – so unless she wins. We will only break even backing her EW.

I would expect her to place – but she’s not getting any younger, so I don’t think that’s a formality.

In truth, there is very little between her and The Governess.
The two met on atrocious ground at Sandown at the beginning of January – and Polly Peachum came out on top by a head.

Polly Peachum is 4lb better off today – so in theory should confirm the form,
However, The Governess is the younger mare (so has greater scope for improvement) - and will be having only her fourth run today, for Dr Newland.

With Dickie Johnson taking over in the saddle for the first time, I expect there to be very little between the pair, making The Governess the more attractive bet at 16/1.

The others I considered getting involved with were Lily Waugh: Desert Queen and Legacy Gold.

The first named is an old friend of ours – and I have had this race in mind for her for a few months.
However, I have to be realistic. She is now 9 years old; has had a very tough season; is better on a soft surface – and her jockey can’t claim his allowance.

I can accept one or two negatives, if the price is right (and 33/1 is tempting !) – but 4 of them seemed too much (I’ve had a little saver on her, all the same !).

I think Desert Queen is a ridiculous price at 50/1 (I’ve also had a little on her) – and I can see her far outrunning those odds – though I’ll be a bit surprised if she places.
She is very much a back to lay in running option (as she likes to race prominently – assuming she jumps off !).

Legacy Gold is a real dark horse – and probably couldn’t be backed without inside info - or market support (she’s currently 66/1).
She’s been off the track for quite a while – but back with her original trainer (Stuart Crawford), has form from a couple of year back, which would give her a real chance of placing.

4:50: I know that like me, one or two of you are on Minella Rocco for this, at big prices…

I put him up in the forum immediately after his latest run at Ascot, when he was a 25/1 chance for this race.

That was a good call – and he is a great bet at that price – but at 6/1 this morning, I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole !

Yes, he can win – but his price is down to connections (Jonjo, JP McManus and Derek O’Connor) and potential.
Based on his 2 previous course run this season, he has very little chance.

Instead I’ve opted for a couple in the race – and I’m quite keen on them…

My main fancy is Native River.

Two wins in November – the second in a grade 2 contest at Newbury – marked him down as a novice of real potential.
He was actually sent off a short priced favourite for the Grade 1 Kauto Star novice chase at the Kempton Christmas festival.
However, he disappointed that day, with the relatively sharp Kempton track appearing not to suit him.

He was even more of a disappointment on his only subsequent run at Wetherby, when well beaten behind Blaklion.

Native River just didn’t seem to run his race on either of those occasions, so it’s very interesting that trainer Colin Tizzard has applied cheek pieces today.
Apparently he thinks the horse raced lazily – and is hopeful that the cheek pieces will wake him up.

If that happens, then I strongly believe he is the one to beat.
Trip and ground will suit him perfectly – and whilst he has a bit of leeway to make up on Southfields Royal based on the Kempton race, I think he will be able to reverse that form.

The other one I want on side, is Vicente.
He’s a fair bit riskier – but I think he has the ability to go close.

He was a good winner over the course in November, but his jumping let him down when he tried to follow up the following month,

He’s been off the track since then – but apparently that was a deliberate ploy as he is best fresh, and on decent ground.

Officially, he’s the best horse in the race – and whilst his rating might flatter him, it does suggest that he is overpriced at 16/1.

Chances of sorts can be given to a few of the others, with Local Show and Ballychorus two worth noting, at decent prices.

A quick mention for our old friend Johnny Og.
He’s already done us a favour this month – however I doubt he’ll be doubling up this afternoon.

The trip is probably too far – the ground may be too quick – and he’s likely to be outclassed regardless  !
That said, I would expect him to race prominently to at least half way, and it should therefore be possible to back him pre-race and lay in running, for a free bet.

5:30: I was hoping to tip Aloomomo in this.

He was an official eye catcher last time, when running really well over hurdles at Ascot.
It looked as if connections wanted to get him into peak condition, whilst preserving his chase handicapped mark – and I’m sure they achieved their objective.
If the ground was slower, I think he would have a huge chance - but on relatively quick ground, over a trip that is likely to be a minimum, I can see him being taken off is feet.

Instead, I’ve decided to spread stakes around and take him on with 3…

My main choice for the race, is Double Shuffle.
I’ve had my eye on him all season – and was very keen on him when he won last time at Ludlow.

He only got a 4lb rise for that win – and connections have clearly saved him for today.
With ground and trip prefect – and Paddy Brennan doing the steering, I feel he has to run a big race.

In addition to him, I also want savers on Amore Alato and Bouvreuil.

Both are much riskier than Double Shuffle – but I think both have a chance of winning…

Amore Alato is likely to be front rank throughout – and is possibly very well handicapped.

He would have won a grade 2 even at Ascot 3 runs ago, in not falling at the last – and has followed that up with a couple more fair runs, again in graded company.
I do worry about the track for him – but if he gets loose on the lead, the others might struggle to peg him back.

It’s very difficult to get handle on Bouvreiul as a chaser – but he did finish second in the Fred Winter hurdle at the festival last season.

He’s been outclassed on 2 of his 3 runs over fences – but they were over the minimum trip.
The only time he was given a more suitable test, he beat Vyta Du Roc, at Doncaster.
The bare form of that gives him every chance – accepting that it might be slightly misleading.

As I say, he’s almost impossible to assess – but the feeling is that he has been targeted at this race and just could be sufficiently well handicapped to win it.
At a price, he is worth a small risk.

Of the others, then I would give a chance to Javert - if he were trained by someone else: whilst I could see On Tour outrunning a very big price – though I’ll be a little surprised if he is good enough to win.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Cheltenham 2:50 Morning Assembly 0.25pt win 16/1

Cheltenham 2:50 Ballykan 0.125pt EW 40/1

Cheltenham 3:30 The New One 0.25pt win 13/2

Cheltenham 4:10 The Governess 0.125pt EW 16/1

Cheltenham 4:50 Native River 0.375pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 4:50 Vicente 0.125pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 5:30 Double Shuffle 0.25pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 5:30 Amore Alato 0.125pt win 22/1

Cheltenham 5:30 Bouvreil 0.125pt win 14/1

Eye Catchers

Cheltenham 2:50 Band of Blood

Cheltenham 5:30 Aloomomo