Sunday 27 March 2016

Review of the day

I’ve been here before – in fact, I’ve been here before on the very same day – but it doesn’t make it any easier to take…

8 tips: and to a man/woman, they performed with huge credit – and yet at the end of the day, there was absolutely nothing to show for it.

On the flip side, I’ve always said that TVB isn’t just a tipping service – and those who took notice of mentions earlier in the season, could well have had a brilliant afternoon.

The first such mention, was Altior, who was a massively impressive winner of the opening Supreme novice hurdle.
Back in October, I suggested he might be a good bet for the race at 25/1 – and this afternoon, he proved that good advice.

I wasn’t sure he would get the better of Min today – but he did so in no uncertain terms and looks a live Champion hurdle contender for next season.

Next up it was the Arkle – and Douvan destroyed the field, as I thought he would.
Furthermore, Sizing John finished second, as I thought he might !
And a couple of late falls, meant that Fox Norton finished an honourable third – well done, Brian !

The first of the days tips, ran in the following Ultima handicap chase - and both ran with credit.
Morning Assembly in particular, looked to have every chance approaching 3 out – but a bad mistake there ended his chance - and he weakened into fourth place, on the run in.

Ballykan also ran creditably – but he could never quite get close enough to mount a challenge and he faded out of things, up the home straight.

The Champion hurdle was won in convincing fashion, by Annie Power.
I’d narrowed down the race very effectively; short listing 4 of the first 6 home.
In truth, I could easily have put us on the winner – if it hadn’t been for the prohibitive odds.

Obviously, that didn’t stop her from winning – and she came home in splendid isolation.
The New One meanwhile conclusively demonstrated, that he just isn’t quick enough to win a Champion hurdle.

It was from this point onwards, that things started to get painful !

In the following mares hurdle, Vroum Vroum Mag was a comfortable winner.
That was always a possibly – I just felt she couldn’t be backed at such a short price.

Instead I put us on The Govaness – and she was in the process of running a huge race - and was still in with a real chance of placing, when she took a fatal fall at the last.
It was sickening to witness – as the horse had given her all…

With her out of the contest, Legacy Gold ran on to claim third place at odds of 40/1.
She was on my short list this morning – but I just felt she was a little too risky.

Following his last run at Ascot, I put up Minella Rocco in the forum for the NH chase.
I also made him an official eye catcher.
However, by this morning, he had been heavily supported into 6/1 – and offered no value at that price.

I therefore switched my interest in the race, to Native River – and in terms of ’value’ it was a good call, as he went off the shorter price of the two.
However, a serious blunder around half way severely compromising his chances – and whilst he did well to still have a chance up the home straight, he just couldn’t get back at Minella Rocco.

In the same race, Vicente also ran really well, until a mistake at the third last ended his chance.

I thought things had got as bad as they could do, in the NH hunt chase – but I was wrong !

Those of you who have been with the service for a few years will doubtless remember the first day of the festival 2 seasons ago.

That day, Shotgun Paddy finished second in the NH chase and in the very next race, Ataglance managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

For Shotgun Paddy and Attaglance, read Native River - and Bouvreuil…

He seemed to have the novice handicap chase won, as he jumped past Ballyalton at the final fence - but unbelievably, that one got back and beat him half a length.

To add insult to injury, the main tip in the race, Double Shuffle, was back in third (and I know of at least one person who did Double Shuffle and Bouvreuil in a forecast).

It was a painful end to a difficult day – and one I really don’t feel I (we !) deserved.

As I said at the beginning, we’ve been here before – but it doesn’t make it any easier to take.

I can only hope that our luck improves as the week progresses…

TVB.

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