Daily write-up - Mar 12th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Chepstow and Ayr in the UK – plus Limerick in Ireland…

As you would expect, with Cheltenham just round the corner, it’s pretty low key stuff.

The Sandown meeting has 3 or 4 reasonable contests – but the meetings at Chepstow, Ayr and Limerick are what you would expect to see during the mid week.

Worse than that, the weather is on the change – again !

After a deluge of rain earlier in the week, there’s been non for the past few days – and coupled with rising temperatures, that means the ground is drying out…

How quickly that will happen, is anyones guess (which is the problem !).

It still looked pretty heavy at both Sandown and Ayr, yesterday – but the official going description at both course, has changed this morning and with a warm(ish) day ahead, the ground could easily be just on the soft side of good, by the time racing starts.

I issued the first couple of tips for Cheltenham, yesterday – and I’ll continue to issue the odd tip or two, over the next few days (prior to the start of the festival, on Tuesday).

As I said yesterday, I don’t expect to be going mad, tips wise.

The festival has got a strange look to it (certainly strange to those of us who were brought up on very competitive fields).

I read the other day, that there will be very short priced favourites (less than 2/1) in as many as 10 of the races.
That situation would have been unthinkable 20 years ago – and simply can’t be good from a betting perspective.

Anyway, that’s all in the future – we’ve got today to deal with first !

There are tips in a couple of races – but as always, I have my thoughts on a few more.
Here they are…

Sandown

2:00: Races don’t come much tougher than this: 18 runners – and it’s difficult to eliminate more than 3 or 4 !

There is little point in me listing all those who I feel have a chance, so I’ll just focus on the one that I’ve tipped…

I think Alcala has quite a lot going for him…

He was a comfortable winner of a novice hurdle on his seasonal debut at Worcester in October – and followed that up by finishing last of 4 in a grade 2 novice event at Cheltenham’s Paddy Power meeting.

Just a week later, he finished fourth again - this time in the fixed brush hurdle final at Haydock.
That is always a very strong race, so that was a commendable run, for one so inexperienced.

Alcala has only run twice since then: firstly when a beaten favourite for a Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton, on Boxing day: and most recently, when winning a novice hurdle at Fontwell, last month.

The form of the Fontwell win amounts to little – but Alcala was visually impressive that day.

Interestingly, he was wearing a first time tongue time and it’s possible that it resulted in him producing an improved performance.
The tongue tie is retained today – and the services of 7lb claimer, Harry Cobden are enlisted.

This is the first time that Alacala has been apprentice ridden and suggests that Paul Nicholls wants to maximise his chance.

As I’ve suggested, dangers abound – particularly as many of the runners are potentially big improvers.

However, Alcala has already performed to a decent level – and if the tongue tie has improved him, then with Harry Cobdens claim making him look well handicapped, he sets a decent standard for the others to aim at.

2:35: The two I like most in this are Relax and Bertie Boru - but both have significant question marks hanging over them.

Relax is a course and distance winner off the same mark as today, so his chance is pretty obvious,

However, he unseated his jockey at Newbury just 7 days ago – and has a strong preference for really deep ground, so there are doubts on that score, as well…

Bertie Boru is handicapped to win this – and with first time cheek pieces in place and Dickie Johnson in the saddle, you have to feel that if there is a day, then today will be it.

However, I have already tipped him twice this season – and his jumping has let him down on both occasions.

As you know, I’m a big fan of Dickie – but if the horses can’t jump, there’s not going to be a lot he can do about it

Maybe the cheek pieces will sharpen him up – they will need to if he is going to win.

That said, it is difficult to make much of a case for many of the others – this race certainly looks there for the taking.

If he jumps round cleanly, I think Bertie Boru will win; if he doesn’t, and the ground is sufficiently soft, I think Relax will win.

If Bertie doesn’t jump – and the ground has dried out, you are probably best to get your lucky pin out !

3:10: There are a couple of official eye catchers running in this, in the shape of Affaire D’Honneur and Sirop De Menthe - and I want them both onside !

I identified this race for Affair D’Honneur, following his run in last months Betfair hurdle.

After a poor start that day, he was last turning in, but motored up the straight to eventually finish fourth.

Assuming he can get away on terms today (and I guess that must be a slight doubt), I think he has the ability to go very close, off a mark just 1lb higher…

Sirop De Menthe ran last time at Ascot – and we were on him that day.

However he was given an injudicious ride, chasing a suicidal early pace - and ultimately paid for it up the home straight.

The fact he managed to finished fourth that day, speaks volumes for his ability – and its surprising that he has been dropped 2lb for that run.

That puts him on a mark of 132 – just 2lb higher than the mark from which he finished second to Rayvin Black, over todays course and distance, at the beginning of January.
That was a huge run – and has subsequently been advertised by the exploits of Rayvin Black, who has shown himself capable of competing at graded level.

Sirop is 10lb better off with him today for a 5 length beating – and I’m pretty sure that will be sufficient to enable him to turn the tables.

I do have a slight concern over the state of the ground. Sirop is a horse for whom it really can’t be too soft - so the drying conditions won’t help him.

That said, he can operate on soft – it just reduces the advantage he has over the others.

All things being equal, Sirop should run a huge race today.

The only way I can see things going horribly wrong, is if his jockey rides another poor race.

In truth, he should have been an EW tip (as he shouldn’t be out of the frame) – however, if he gets a ride like last time, then anything is possible !

Rather than take that option, it seems more sensible to split stakes with Affair D’Honneur and hope that everything drops right for one of them !!

3:45: There is far too much guesswork involved to consider a serious bet, but my two against the field in this, are Avellino and Woolstone One.

The former travels over from Ireland having shown good form in 3 bumpers over there – and with a decent 5lb claimer in the saddle.

The latter is a 4 year old and receives a lot of weights as a consequence. She needs to prove her stamina over today trip, but I think she will be OK on that score.

They can be backed at 15/2 and 13/2 respectively, which seems fair enough…

4:55: Minella Reception is quite a short priced favourite for this – but I think that is probably right.
He was hugely impressive last time out at Warwick – and whilst he may not have beaten much that day, an 8lb rise was hardly punitive…

Todays race is actually a grade lower – even though it doesn’t look appreciably weaker.

That said, it’s not easy to see where serious opposition is going to come from.

Half cases can be made for most of his rivals – but the case for Minella Reception is by far the strongest.

I guess he could be Top Pick material – but the small field and questionable ground are causing me to hold back on that one…

Ayr

2:55: I tipped Bold Sir Brian last time out – and was pretty keen on him.

He ran a reasonable race that day - but weakened out of things up the home straight.

He’s been dropped 5lb for that run and is cut back half a mile in trip today.

That will help – as too may the fact that Lucinda Russell had a couple of winners yesterday, after quite a long period in the wilderness.

That said, my overriding feeling is that the horse is in decline.

He really should have won that race – and the fact he didn’t suggests to me that he isn’t the horse he was.

Clearly he retains some ability – but judging the level of that ability is very difficult (we can’t base it on his past performances).

For those who want to get involved with him, I would suggest backing pre-race and laying off in running (just above 2).

Class horses tend to travel through their races – even if they don’t get home…

4:05: I think One for Arthur is the one to beat in this – but he makes limited appeal at 11/4.
He looked like he should have won last time out at Carlisle - but he weakened close home.

If Lucinda Russell’s stable have turned a corner, then I would expect him to have less issues getting home today (particularly as Ayr is a less demanding course) and that will make his hard to beat.

That said, this is a trappy looking race.

No Planning is a very well handicapped horse – and if money did come for him, then I wouldn’t be opposing him lightly !

4:40: A glut of NRs has spoilt this race a bit – though there may still be an angle into it…

Shades of Midnight and Yes Tom were both severely penalised for there last hurdle wins – and they will be doing well to win from their revised marks.
De Boitron is returning from a long break, on ground too soft and over a distance too far, so victory for him would seem unlikely…

The 2 to focus on would therefore appear to be Sa Suffit and Western Rules.

The former won this race 12 months ago - and would appear to have a great chance today off a mark 3lb lower.
However, he is now 13 – and whilst not apparently in terminal decline, he is unlikely to be improving with age !

That makes Western Rules the most likely winner – but unfortunately, he’s the favourite and represents little value at 2/1…

Arguably, Sa Suffit does represent a bit of value at 6/1 – and he maybe worth  a small play, for the less ageist amongst you !

Chepstow

1:50: This looks an absolute minefield !

I’m not too surprised that Umberto Dolivate has made it to favouritism, as he is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race – but he’s been badly out of form and there is no obvious reason why he should bounce back today…

Nail’ M could be interesting – but connections have reapplied the visor and that went horribly wrong, the last time it was applied…

Wood Yer would be interesting if supported in the market – but that doesn’t look like happening.

As a consequence, I would probably take a risk on Copper Birch.

His strike rate is very poor – but he is now well handicapped and will have no issue with conditions.

He has an 8lb claimer in the saddle which will help things further – and at 12/1, I could certainly see him running into a place (and possibly even winning !).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(E) Sandown 2:00 Alcala 0.25pt win 12/1

(E) Sandown 3:10 Sirop De Menthe 0.25pt win 16/1

(L) Sandown 3:10 Affair D’Honneur 0.25pt win 5/1

Eye Catchers

Sandown 3:10 Sirop De Menthe

Sandown 3:10 Affair D’Honneur