Daily write-up - Mar 27th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Plumpton and Sedgefield in the UK - and Fairyhouse and Cork in Ireland…

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the woods…

Heavy overnight rain meant that Plumpton had to pass an inspection this morning.

It did – but it’s anyone’s guess what the ground will be like.

There have also been the inevitable raft of non runners…

I had hoped to issue a tip – or possibly two – at the course, but it now feels like a bit of a lottery, and I don’t like tipping in such circumstances.

The ground changes shouldn’t have been as extreme at the other courses – though in truth, with recent rain everywhere, I’m not really sure what to expect.

I spent a bit of time on the two Irish cards – and managed to find a horse I’m quite keen on – but the price isn’t great.

I’ve made it a Top Pick – and you also have my thoughts on a few other races – plus some mentions.

Even on tough days, TVB gives you that little bit more

Plumpton

4:00: Official eye catcher, Vicenzo Mio has his second run in a week, in this.
He ran second at Taunton last Monday and it seems quite significant that he is returned to the track so quickly.

This doesn’t look the strongest of events – and at 9/2 last night, I would have been prepared to tip him.

However, the overnight rain has resulted in 4 withdrawals this morning and as a consequence, he is now an 11/4 shot.

Worse still (though not too surprisingly), most of his main rivals remain in the race, so I don’t see him as a betting proposition.

I would still make him the most likely winner – so 11/4 probably isn’t a bad price: but Baratineur, has scope for improvement; whilst Billy no Name and Sea Wall will relish very soft ground (assuming that’s how it rides).

5:10: This is quite a tight race, in which a number can be given a chance…

If forced to side with one, it would probably be Tour Des Champs – who is down to a mark just 1lb higher than he was successful from, on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

He should have no issue with the ground (whatever it might be !) – and the trip, so his case is quite solid.

A similar case can be made for Saroque – who is also on a workable mark and should cope fine with conditions.

Up against them, are a couple of improving sorts, in Krakatoa King and Blameitonmyroots.

The former could certainly win a race like this – though I’m not convinced he’ll be suited to the tight Plumpton track.

Bottom weight, Coolking, is very interesting – particularly with David Noonan taking off 5lb. He’s a potentially well handicapped horse - who seems to have be revitalised by a couple of recent wins over hurdles.

Itoldyou won this race 12 last season – off a 3lb higher mark.
He’s been completely out of form this season – but the fitting of a first time visor is an interesting move.

Tom Cannon in the saddle is also an eye catching jockey booking – particular as his retained stable of Chris Gordon, has Coolking in the race.
Certainly, they are a pair of intriguing subtle signs !

Fairyhouse

3:05: The first of two grade 1s on the card – and I think Jers Girl is the one to beat.

She is already proven as close to the top of the pack of a seemingly decent bunch of Irish juvenile hurdlers – and I can see her dealing with her older rivals this afternoon.
The fact she gets almost a stone from all of them will certainly help - though the step up to 2m4f is an unknown.

I think she will handle it fine though – and expect Barry Geraghty to settle her in behind what is likely to be a strong pace.

Willie Mullins provides two of her main rivals in the shape of Myska and Asthuria - though it’s a little surprising to see Ruby Walsh riding the latter.

If he had been on board Myska, I suspect she would be favourite – and I think the fact he’s chosen to desert her, reflects badly on her chances, rather than well on those of Asthurai (who I suspect will need the run).

Jessbers Dream is the other one of significant interest - and I would expect her to run well.

However, I’m not convinced she should be ahead of Jers Girl in the betting.

Jers Girl is a bit too short for me to be tipping – but I think she’ll win, so I’ll make her a Top Pick !

4:15: I think the state of the ground will have a big impact on the result of this race.

The absence of Otago Trail, leads me to think that the going isn’t that heavy (he wants it bottom-less) – though I guess he could be missing for some other reason.
Outlander is clearly the one to beat – though I wouldn’t be keen to take 13/8 on a horse who fell at Cheltenham just 10 days ago.

Kylemore Lough is the obvious alternative – though he has a marked preference for very heavy ground.

He never really struck me as a grade 1 horse either - though whether a true grade 1 animal will win this, has to be open to debate.

As with the other grade 1 on the card, Ruby Walsh’s chosen mount is interesting.
I would have expected him to be on Vedetariat - who at least has some potential; as opposed to McKinley, who looks exposed at below the required level.

The conclusion I draw, is that neither of them are likely be good enough.

That said, it’s not easy to pull together a case for any of the others, which makes things tricky !

By default, one of the market leaders will probably win – but it’s certainly not a race I would want to bet on.

Cork

3:55; Coolaghknock Glebe finished runner up last time out to Squouateur in the handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse, which initially seemed to be very strong form – but which has recently suffered a few reverses…

In fairness to the horse – he had won his two previous races this year, so even without that run, he has a decent chance this afternoon.

That said, he runs off a mark 21lb higher than when successful at Fairyhouse at the end of January – so the handicapper hasn’t missed him.

Rather than take a short price on him, I would be more inclined to take a risk on Who’s That.

She won at Leopardstown, early in February – before finishing a close up sixth at the same track, later in the month.

Both were decent runs and she has not been unduly punished by the handicapper.

For those looking for a back to lay in running option, then the strong travelling Good as Gold, could well come there looking like she will win, at the second last.

Whether she gets home however, is a completely different matter…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Top Picks

 

Fairyhouse 3:05 Jers Girl

Eye Catchers

Plumpton 4:00 Vicenzo Mio