Daily write-up - Dec 5th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Aintree, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

An absolute glut of top class racing – and if I’m honest, almost too much for me to get my head round.

I would have like to have just focused on the days premier meetings, at Sandown and Aintree – but as is often the case, the better betting opportunities can be found elsewhere…

I try to limit myself to 6 or 7 races a day – but it’s almost impossible to do that today.

Coupled with some seriously big fields – its been a big ask.

Anyway, I’ve done the best I can.

I’ve looked closely at all the days big races –and picked off a few tipping opportunities.

I’m sure I’m missed something (possibly at Navan, which I’ve had to leave completely alone) – but there are only so many hours…

Here’s the rationale for my tips – and some other thoughts…

Aintree

1:40

The first race of the day over the National fences and despite the numbers, I’m not sure it is quite as competitive as it appears…

I’ll offer 4 against the field and am hopeful, they will include the winner:

Sainte Are, Soll, Algernon Pazham and Pineau de Re.

Sainte Are was third in this race last year (when I was very keen on him) – and runner up in the Grand National.

It’s difficult to see him not being in the shake up today.

Pineau De Re won the 2014 Grand National – and runs off a mark 2lb lower, today.

He also ran he best race in a long time, last time out.

However, he is now pushing 13, and probably vulnerable to younger legs…

Algernon Pazham has much younger legs (he’s 6) – but his inexperience coupled with a slight question mark over his stamina, are the concerns with him.
Finally, Soll…

He also has form over the National fences (he’s run well in 2 previous ones, without quite getting home) – and I suspect he has been trained to the minute for this.

He’s got blinkers back on, will love the ground – and it’s the perfect trip.

I just think that today could be his day – let’s hope I’m right !

0.25pt win Soll 11/1

3:20

The second race of the day over the National fences, is the Grand Sefton.

I wouldn’t be quite so confident that I could find the winner of this with a short list – and I was generally drawn to those at the head of the market…

Victory for Double Ross, Rocky Creek, Poole Master or Bennys Mist, would not come as a surprise – but I can’t see any margin in their prices…

I think I can see a bit of margin in the price of Seventh Sky – even though his chance isn’t that obvious…

I was really taken by his defeat of No Butts at Warwick last season and whilst he’s not managed to follow that up, he has subsequently been plying his trade in conditions races at the highest level.

He drops back down to handicap company today – and with a reasonable weight on his back.

The trip and going should be fine for him –and whilst it’s anyones guess how he’ll handle the fences I’m optimistic he’ll be OK.

His trainer/jockey combination were on fire last week – so lets hope they can keep it going today.

0.125pt win Seventh Sky 14/1

It will be good to see Don Poli back on the track, in the conditions chase at 2:15.

An impressive winner of last seasons RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival, he was then subsequently disappointing at Punchestown.

I would always forgive a horse a bad run at the end of the season – but I wonder whether he will be fully tuned up for today…

If he’s not, then I could see either Many Clouds or Southfield Theatre taking advantage.

I would favour the former – but so would the betting, so I’ll probably just a race to watch and learn from…

Sandown

3:35

I’m expecting the ground to ride quite quick at Sandown this afternoon – and that won’t suit all of the horses…

Relax, Count Guido Deiro and Mountainous, are 3 who I could have been interested in, if the going had been soft – but on quicker ground, I think they’ll struggle…

One who I don’t expect to struggle with conditions, is Godsmejudge.

Formerly with Alan King, he ran some cracking races on decent ground in the 2013-14 season – most notably when finishing runner up in the Scottish National and third in the B365 Gold Cup.

Both of those races were of better class than todays – and Godsmejudge was rated 10lb higher.
If he could recapture that form, then he would undoubtedly have an excellent chance this afternoon.

And that is the big question with him, as aside from a fair run in the Betbright chase at Kempton in February, Godsmejudge showed nothing last season.

However, a change in yard can often work wonders – and whist Godsmejudge ultimately finished well beaten on his stable debut at Cheltenham, he ran with promise for a good part of the journey.

If he has come on for that run – then in ideal conditions, off a very good mark, he could take some beating…

Of the others in the race, then I would respect the chances of Caroles Destrier – he is a class act; Also Bertie Boru is one I would be very fearful of, if somehow he has learnt to jump properly (as Sandown will certainly test him).

On balance though, I’m happy enough to just take a risk on Godsmejudge, opting for the EW option, just in case…

0.125pt EW Godsmejudge 22/1

With Un De Sceaux. Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig all absent, the Tingle Creek is not the race it threatened to be…

In truth, it looks quite simple to read:

Special Tiara will try to make all and it will just be a question of whether anything can get past him…

The betting reckons Vibrato Valtat might – and I would agree that he is the most likely to, if anything does.

However, if Neol Fehily gets his fractions right, I think Special Tiara will take some passing – and Noel isn’t a bad judge of pace 

I think Bristol De Mai is the one to beat in the Henry VIII novice chase – but he’s not one to be piling into at 6/4…

For a start, the Sandown fences take some jumping – but also, he faces some potentially decent rivals.

As if often the case in novice chases, it’s impossible to get a proper handle on many of the runners – but I was certainly impressed by Willows Saviour on his chasing debut at Warwick; whilst the fact that Henry de Bromhead brings over Sizing Codelco to run in the race, is almost a tip in itself…

Wetherby

2:05

As I’m sure you all recall, we’ve already been on Vendor once this season…

That was on his second start of the campaign, when he finished second at Wetherby.

I really fancied him that day – and if anything, I fancy him even more today !

I felt that the way he was ridden in the Wetherby race, cost him his chance of victory – so I was a little surprised to see him ridden in a very similar way, next time out at Haydock.

That was in a much stronger race – and he was allowed to bowl along, even though there were other front runners up against him.

In the circumstances, I thought he ran really well: threatening to steal the race turning for home, before eventually tying up…

He’s dropped back in trip today – and I’m starting to relax a bit about how he is ridden !

I still think he would be best dropped in  - but if connections want to race prominently, then after 3 previous goes with him, I’m prepared to bow to their superior knowledge.

That said, I’ll be very surprised if he leads today.

Circus Star is a head strong sort - whilst Stopped Out, Sa Suffit and Woodpole Academy all like to front run as well.

My hope is that he will just be settled in behind the pace – and hopefully take up the running late.
I do think it is significant that after trying various other jockeys, Danny Cook is in the saddle today.

I suspect that when the Smiths want one to win – he is their ‘go to’ man.

Let’s hope he and Vendor pay back our loyalty, this afternoon.

0.5pt win Vendor 7/2

The preceding race on the card (1:30) is also quite an interesting one…

It sees a rematch between 3 horses who met at the last Wetherby meeting, in the shape of Indian Voyage, Grey Life and Yorkist.

At the revised weights, on the heavy ground, then Yorkist is the one I would expect to come out on top (his 7lb claimer swinging the balance).

However, I don’t think it’s absolutely guaranteed - and I do think it would be dangerous to ignore the rest of the field…

I certainly couldn’t conclusively rule out any of the other 3 runners – so at 7/2, the value in Yorkist is limited…

Chepstow

2:30

I have to be honest, I expected Victors Serenade to be much shorter in this (around half the price): however, I also have to say that I can understand why he’s not…

For a start, recent form figures of PPP9 (beaten 91 lengths), mean that he’s not going to be attractive to the superficial form reader !

However, his run prior to that, resulted in a win, over todays course and distance, off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off today.

Maybe that was the run I was expecting people to latch on to…

And the reason I thought they would, was because it was his first run of last season – and clearly he is a horse who goes best when fresh.
His trainer has actually gone on record saying exactly that: Victors Serenades season will be all about today – anything else will be a bonus.

Looked at in those terms, he has a lot of appeal. He clearly handles the course and distance – and is also a renowned mud lark.

Lots of ticks.

However, the other thing that is keeping up his price, is a number of credible opponents…

Strong cases can be made for Benvolio; Rigadin De Beauchene, Tour Des Champs, Rebeccas Chioice and Top Wood, based on old form.

That said, I don’t think the case for any of them is more compelling than that for Victors Serenade…

In truth, we were always going to be on him today: it was just a question of how much  and at what price.

He may well disappoint – but equally, he could easily win.

At 12/1, I felt he represented some value.

0.375pt win Victors Serenade 12/1

In the previous race on the card, I really did hope I could put us on Moorlands Mist.

I’ve been following him for years - and thought there a was a lot of promise in his debut for Evan Williams, last month.

I also thought that run might have gone under the radar and was therefore a little shocked to find him priced up at 3/1 today !

I guess he might drift – though it doesn’t look an overly strong race.

All this said, I do have some reservations about him acting on very heavy ground.

I guess my hope is that he disappoints today and we can pick him up at a better price next time.

I’m not counting on it tho…

Finally, a mention for Teachmetobouggie, who has the second outing of his life in the bumper that closes the card.

He is owned by one of our number: Neil.

I know that Neil has high hopes for the horse – particularly after a very promising run on his debut at Ffos Las, last season.

In truth, this looks a winnable race – and Bouggie has been backed.
Whether it is Neils money, you’ll have to ask him in the forum !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.