Daily write-up - Dec 12th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield in the UK – plus Tramore in Ireland…

I feel like I’ve been banging on about the weather and the ground since day 1 of this season (apologies for that !) – but it really has been a pain.

Yet, if I thought things had been bad so far – they’ve stepped up a level today !

Ordinarily, the situation tends to pan out as it did yesterday.

Overnight rain leaves me uncertain as to exactly how the track will be riding.

Generally, I know there has been rain – just not how much and what impact it has had.

Well today it’s different…

There is rain scheduled for this morning – and not just a bit – bucket loads of the stuff…

That’s bad enough at Cheltenham where the ground was on the soft side yesterday (and likely to be softer today); but it makes things impossible at Doncaster.

It was supposed to be good there yesterday (though I would question that); however, with extensive rain possible this morning, it could be heavy by the off – or anything in between !

Impossible.

I therefore felt I had little alternative other than to leave Doncaster alone.

I’ve also chosen to leave Lingfield and Tramore alone.

The former because the very heavy ground has resulted in uncompetitive races (or at least, seemingly accurate markets); and the latter because the meeting was in doubt yesterday evening.

That still left Cheltenham for a few tips – and a few more thoughts…

Cheltenham

1:15

I’m not generally in the habit of tipping horses that have been previous winning tips – but I’m making an exception with Keel Haul…

As I’m sure most of you will recall, we were on him for the first race of last months Open meeting and he did the business for us at odds of 25/1.

Despite the price, I felt the win was no fluke – and off a 5lb higher mark today, I can see him repeating the trick.

Clearly trip and track suit him admirably – and I think the extra bit of juice in the ground, will also be in his favour.

He remains a young progressive horse – with form in the book, beyond his last time out win, which suggests he is still well handicapped of a mark of 131.

Unfortunately, there is no 25/1 around this morning – but I do think he is the most solid option in the race – and 13/2 is a perfectly fair price.

In truth, despite the 13 runners, I think the race can be safely narrowed down to around half a dozen.

Cold March, Eastlake and Bold Henry are the obvious dangers: with Going Concern probably the best of the outsiders and Next Sensation one to be fearful of, if he happened to bounce back to his best

That said, I don’t think any of them can boast the credentials of Keel Haul and I’m optimistic he’ll be able to get the day off to a good start.

0.375pt win Keel Haul 13/2

1:50

As the betting suggests, the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup has a really open look to it…

There are plenty of horses for whom a decent case could be made – and tactics/luck in running are likely to play a big part in the outcome of the race.

One who I think should run a big race, is Little Jon.

He threatened to make up in to a decent chaser last season – but silly mistakes kept on catching him out and stopping him from fulfilling his potential.

Despite that, he still ran some good races – but non as good as the race he ran last time out.

That was at Newbury is a decent race over 2m4f on soft ground. Prominent throughout, Little Jon jumped well and stayed on strongly to repel the challenge of the well handicapped Upepito.

That run suggested that Little Jon had come of age – and if he can repeat that level of performance today, I think he will go very close.

There are a couple of things that nudge me in his favour: firstly his prominent style of running should keep him out of trouble; and secondly having Jamie Bargery in the saddle means that he gets 5lb taken off his back, at very little cost.

Of the others, then I could be interested in Buywise – but he’s risky proposition…

In fairness, there is a chance that Adam Wedge will ride him differently to Paul Moloney – but I somehow think it won’t be that much different.

If everything drops right for him, he could win – but he is more likely to hit an issue of some sort, in running…

Tenor Nivernais could be a danger to all if he is able to build on his last time out win: whilst Village Vic is of interest off the minimum weight, with Dickie in the saddle.

Of the less obvious ones, then Doctor Phoenix catches my eye – though this is a big step up in class for him.

0.25pt win Little Jon 8/1

3:35

Lily Waugh has struck me as a massive improver this season.

In truth, I always felt she had serious talent (she cruises through her races), but for whatever reason, that talent didn’t tend to manifest itself in winning performances.
Well, 2 outings ago at Wincanton, that all changed.

She blew apart a field of mares, by 13 lengths easing up.

It wasn’t as if she beat nothing, either. The runner up that day, Lady of Longstone, had won 2 of her 3 previous races – and also won her next one.

It was a further 10 lengths back to the third horse that day - so Lily Waugh really did dot up.

She was turned out under a penalty and again easily got the better of an in form horse, with the third, 14 lengths further back.

The handicapper has now been able to react to those wins and she is racing off a mark 15lb higher than the first of them – but I’m not sure that will be enough to stop her.
Simply, she is in the form of her life – and currently the sky appears to be the limit.

She will be running off a mark of 134 today – but in absolute terms that’s not particularly high.

I could easily see her making up into a 140+ rated horse.

She will have conditions to suit (assuming it doesn’t get bottom less) and David Noonan taking 5lb off in the saddle (he will actually drive over from Lingfield this afternoon, for the ride).

Provided she remains in the same form she was last month I think she will take a lot of beating.

0.375pt win Lily Waugh 8/1

There’s not too much to get excited about in the first two races on the card…

Though I could see Sky Lino out running his odds in the opening juvenile race (though the original 25/1 is now only 14/1 – so appeal is lessened) – particularly if the going is very soft.

I’ve not got a strong view on the novice hurdle at 2:25 – and whilst I would hope Peace and Co will be good enough to take the International hurdle at 3:00, I won’t be backing him to do so…

I probably won’t be backing anything at all in the race, though if the ground got truly desperate, I might be tempted by a small play on Melodic Rendezvous at a huge price

Doncaster

As I said in the introduction, I don’t feel I can get involved at Doncaster, because of the uncertainty over the ground.

If the ground does turn soft (or worse), then it is really going to mess things up for a lot of the runners.

Most of the horses running at the course today, will be running mainly because they expect to get decent ground.

Obviously that tends to be quite rare at this time of year, so if connections think they can get it, they will target their horses at races run at the course (it’s a similar situation at Musselburgh).

Clearly, some of the runners will be able to handle conditions regardless – but there will be quite a few who may as well have stayed at home (and there could be lots of non runners).

Rather than go through the races as I normally do, I’ll just pick out a few that I think you should be interested in IF the rain comes and the ground turns soft…

In the opener (11:50) the chances of Hartside will be greatly improve by rain.

He still might not be quite good enough to win – but he is getting close to a mark from which he can strike.

At 10/1, he would hold some EW appeal…

The handicap chase at 12:20 could be turned on its head by significant rain…

Most of the field have a strong preference for decent ground, so things could change completely…

If the going is soft, Saints and Sinners would get interesting: as could outsider Rival D’Estruval.

In fact, he could get very interesting indeed…

In the 1:30 race, the favourite Straidnahanna would appreciate some cut in the ground – though he is short enough for a horse who took a crashing fall last time.

Indian Castle would also appreciate soft ground – and is well handicapped.

The third interesting one is Achimota – though this is a couple of classes higher than he tends to operate at…

Finally, soft ground would be no hindrance to Qewy in the handicap hurdle at 3:15 – but he is plenty short enough at 11/4.

That said, he does look potentially well handicapped – and there aren’t many others I could fancy in the race…

Lingfield

Generally, the betting seems to be about right in the Lingfield races that I looked at…

In the opener, I quite fancied Crafty Roberto – but he’s now favourite.
Failing him, then it would have been Sea Wall – but he’s second favourite.

In truth, there’s nothing I would confidently dismiss in the race – and the betting seems to have them all priced about right.

It’s a very similar story in the handicap chase at 1:10.
It’s not easy to split the 3 last time out winners – and not possible to completely dismiss the other 2.

There might be a bit of value in Winston Churchill at 4/1 – but only a bit.

The presence of Gevrey Chambertin (and Tom Scudamore) in the handicap hurdle at 1:45, is interest – and I’m not too surprised he’s been backed.

That said, I wouldn’t be overly interested in him just yet, as I would like to see him drop a little further down the handicap…

Finally, my 2 against the field in the handicap chase at 2:20 were Saint Raph and Terraco – and they are now first and second favourite…

Like I said, not a lot to get excited about at Lingfield !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.