Daily write-up - Dec 16th

The abandonment of Clonmel means there are just 2 meetings today: at Newbury and Ludlow.

It was nice to have a couple of days off – and it was also nice to come back to some decent racing.

There are 5 reasonable handicap chases across todays 2 cards and I was pretty confident I would be able to find something to tip.

However, closer examination revealed that they are all tight races – and the bookmakers have the runners priced up pretty much where I would have them.

I could have taken a ground driven risk (ie. taken a chance on one because of the likely state of the ground), but I didn’t feel that was necessary.

There will be plenty of busy days over the next couple of weeks, so I’m not inclined to force things…

There are my thoughts on the some of the days races – you may be able to pick out a bet or two, as the off time approaches…

Newbury

In the handicap chase at 12:40, I am instinctively drawn towards Wuff…

A decent horse last year for Tom George, he was a disappointment on his debut for Paul Nichols last month.

Backed into 6/4 fav for a competitive amateur riders race, he already appeared to be struggling, when badly hampered by a faller.

He’s been dropped 3lb for that run – which should make him very well handicapped.

I also think he will appreciate todays softer ground – and he may well have benefited from that run.

The trouble is, there are a few ‘interesting’ ones up against him, in the shape of Blameitalonmyroots, Local Show and Delganey Demon – and he’s a 7/2 shot.

With the doubts, I see little value at that price…

Of the longer priced ones, then Invicta Lake is theoretically of interest on his chasing debut.
He won a decent handicap hurdle off a mark just 1lb lower last season – so if he takes to fences, he is handicapped to go very close.

Him taking to fences is a concern though (he’s already 8, which is late for him to be trying for the first time).

Gentleman Jon is another of potential interest – but again, one with a few question marks over him…

In the 1:50 race I do wish that either Mr Burbidge or Val D’Arc weren’t running…

Both like to front run and both are suspect jumpers.

If either one was guaranteed an easy time on the front, I could be interested.

However, one of them is going to have to tuck in – or they are going to get into a pace duel – and I could see that ending in tears…

Mr Burbidge could be interesting on his run at Chepstow, where he finished behind Exmoor Mist, but is now 7lb better off. In theory, it should be quite close between the 2 (though Exmoor Mist probably has a bit more scope for improvement).

Val D’Arc is potentially the more interesting. Prior to his last time out fall, he had come up against a couple of big improvers and run very well in defeat.

However, he does tend to take the odd liberty with his fences – and if he is not getting the run of the race, that is even more likely to happen.

If the race doesn’t pan out well for those 2, then Exmoor Mist is most likely to benefit – though I would also respect the chance of both Allow Dallow and Tresor De Bontee (Dickie is an interesting booking, for the latter).

Ludlow

With more rain expected on ground already described as soft, the going at Ludlow this afternoon, may well end up pretty desperate.

I could be pretty keen on Double Shuffle in the novice handicap chase at 12:55.

He has be running with credit in much better company than this and should appreciate the drop in class.

I’m not overly concerned about many of his rivals, either.

Fourth Act is the obvious one, as he’s shown himself effective in the mud and was running well when falling last time at Newbury.
However, I’m not sure about the strength of that form, A number of the horses from the Newbury race have disappointed recently, so it might not be as strong a contest as it appeared at the time.

Aside from him however, I’m struggling for dangers…

There are question marks (some pretty big !) against most of the other runners.

The issues I see with Double Shuffle are the ground (all of his best form is on good); and his price (11/4 is pretty tight).

If he under performs, I suspect anything could win – but I just can’t quite bring myself to tip him at the price…

The handicap chase at 1:30 is a race where I feel it should be possible to work out the winner…

My Brother Sylvest and Arkaim will both want to front run – and this could easily end up in a pace war.

If that does happen, neither one will get home…

I’d be happy to take on favourite Sir Valnetino, who was very lucky not to fall last time out.

He all but hurdled the fences up the straight - and he’ll be lucky to get away with doing that again…

Jayo Time and Lightening Rod don’t want soft ground – so assuming that’s the case, their chances don’t look great: whilst Kudu Country is out of form, and whilst not badly handicapped, he’s not particularly well handicapped either.
By a process of elimination, the winner should therefore be Vivaccio.

And it might well be – but he’s not one I feel especially drawn to…

The ground looks like having a huge bearing on the outcome of the handicap chase at 2:40.

On decent ground, I would be keen on both What a Warrior and The Tourad Man – but soft ground won’t be ideal for either of them…

Soft ground will be fine for Drumshambo – and he really is spectacularly well handicapped – but I just don’t think he stays 3 miles…

He might if the ground weren’t so soft – but today could end up a war of attrition and I can’t see that suiting him.

It could suit Katkeau – but whether his jumping will stand the test, is anyones guess…

The solid option in the race is undoubtedly Goodtoknow.

Trip, ground and distance will be perfect for him – and he should certainly run his race.

If he had been an EW price, I would have tipped him accordingly – but 7/1 was the best available.
I think there is a chance he might be good enough to win – but I think a placing is more likely.

Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.