Sunday 7 February 2016

Daily write-up - Feb 2nd

The meeting at Lingfield was abandoned a few days ago – but Taunton has survived, so there is some NH action on the day…

Hopefully the situation with the weather is starting to improve.
There were a crazy number of meetings lost during January – and those that did survive were generally run on atrocious ground.

Those of you who have been with the service for a few years, will know what the ‘wet period’ is a notoriously difficult one to handle – so the sooner it is over, the better !

Todays meeting at Taunton will be run on very heavy ground (4.5 on the going stick) – so we still need to be treading cautiously.

I’ve issued one tip on the day, and whilst it is no certainty, I think it has a fair chance and is over-priced from a win perspective.

Here is the rationale behind it – and thoughts on a few of the other races…


Taunton

3:45

This looks quite an open race – and victory for any of the 7 runners wouldn’t come as a massive surprise.
Master Red and After Hours head the market – and whilst I can see why, there are reasons to oppose them both…
Master Red is making his debut for David Pipe, having transferred from the yard of Donald McCain.
He is one of many horses to leave McCain this year – and most have improved for the change of scenery.
If Master Red has – and provided he’s ready to do himself justice today – then he should run a big race.
But there are enough questions marks to be opposing him at a best price of 11/4…
After Hours was a tenacious winner last time out – but has got himself a 10lb rise for a short head win.
He’s a fine looking horse – but I suspect the best of him will be seen when he goes over fences.
Again, I’m happy enough to oppose him, at a price of 11/4.
The horse I want to side with in the race, is De Faoithesdream.
He was a massively impressive winner on his penultimate outing at Exeter, cantering home by 10 lengths.
He was raised 10lb for that win, so connections ran him again quickly, under a penalty – but he disappointed in a hot race at Sandown.
De Faoithesdream is a front runner – and there was lots of pace in the Sandown race.
That put pressure on his jumping and it eventually cracked.
He ultimately finished well beaten in that race, but I think the run can be ignored…
Both the Exeter run and the Sandown run, were over fences – but De Faoithesdream is switched back to hurdles today.
I’ve no issue with that, as he is equally effective over the small obstacles.
He is also now better handicapped over hurdles: he’s able to run today off a mark of 128, whilst he is rated 132 over fences.
More than that, he has the 7lb claimer, Lewis Gordon in the saddle today, so depending on how you view that, it can be argued that he is effectively running off a rating a pound lower than the rating he won from at Exeter.
The other thing I like about De Faoithesdream, is that he is coming here relatively fresh.
It is 60 days since he ran at Sandown – and generally, horses like him, who race exuberantly, tend to perform better on the back of a break.
Of the others, then Lochnager will need to have come on massively for his seasonal debut. He looked to me that day, like a horse who wanted a fence. However, he can race prominently, so that could be an issue for De Faoithesdream.
Heath Hunter doesn’t look to have a lot in hand of his mark – though the booking of David Noonan is virtually a free 5lb.
Whilst Sea Wall often looks like he could be a decent horse – but often finds some way to get himself beaten.
If everything dropped right for him today, he’s another who could go close.
But in truth, it’s that kind of race – so at the price available – and safe in the knowledge that he should run his race, I think De Faothesdream is a reasonable bet.

0.25pt win De Faoithesdream 9/1


I find the betting for the opening race on the card, quite fascinating…
Last night, Safran de Cotte opened at 8/1 – and I felt it inevitable that his price would crash.
And sure enough, this morning, you can’t beat 4/1…
The reason is quite simple.
6 runs ago, the horse was sent off a 7/1 chance in a 14 runner, class 1 chase at Cheltenham, running off a mark of 121.
Today, he is running in a 9 runner, class 5 hurdle at Taunton, off a mark of 100.
He is also wearing blinker for the first time.
Looked at in those terms, 4/1 is an absurdly big price !
The trouble is, last time out, he was beaten nearly 100 lengths in a class 4 handicap hurdle at Huntingdon, off a mark of 105.
Based on that run, even with first time blinkers, 8/1 is hardly attractive…
I have no data to back it up: but my feeling is that these kind of horses are generally best left alone.
They are in serious decline, for whatever reason – and unless you know that has been arrested, you are better off not backing them.
Instead, you should probably wait for them to show a return to some kind of form – and then look to back them on their following run (albeit probably from a higher mark – and at a shorter price).
Ofcourse that doesn’t mean Safran De Cotte can’t win today – but it does mean that at 4/1 he almost certainly doesn’t represent value.
In theory, that should mean that something else in the race does - but it’s such a poor contest, I’ve no idea what that might be !

Gallic Warrior catches my eye in the 3:15 race – but I’m put off by his price.
He showed promise on his first 2 runs this season, before unseating last time out.
He’s Paddy Brennans only ride on the card – and that could be significant.
However, he faces enough interesting rivals, for me to resist the quote of 7/2, quite easily…

The final race of interest on the Taunton card, is the handicap chase at 4:15.
Wychwood Brook won a similar race over course and distance a couple of weeks ago and even off a 5lb higher mark, he looks the one to beat today.
His 5lb rise is effectively offset by his claiming jockey, so his task shouldn’t be too much more difficult than it was last time.
That said, his current price of 9/4 leaves little margin for error.
Half cases can be made for all of his rivals – though the one who interests me most, is Cork Citizen…
He makes his debit for David Pipe today having run last season, in Irish PTPs (and Hunter Chases).
He is part owned by Allan Stennett, who has had numerous decent horses with Pipe (Ballynagour, probably the most famous of them).
I’m sure Pipe will be able to elicit some improvement out of him – in which case he is likely to be well handicapped off a mark of 125.
That said, the improvement might take a few runs to materialise (unless the betting says otherwise !), so he could well be one to just keep an eye on today…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

No comments:

Post a Comment