The
meeting at Lingfield was abandoned a few days ago – but Taunton has survived, so
there is some NH action on the day…
Hopefully the situation with the weather is starting to
improve.
There were a crazy number of meetings lost during January
– and those that did survive were generally run on atrocious ground.
Those of you who have been with the service for a few
years, will know what the ‘wet period’ is a notoriously difficult one to handle
– so the sooner it is over, the better !
Todays meeting at Taunton will be run on very heavy
ground (4.5 on the going stick) – so we still need to be treading
cautiously.
I’ve
issued one tip on the day, and whilst it is no certainty, I think it has a fair
chance and is over-priced from a win perspective.
Here
is the rationale behind it – and thoughts on a few of the other
races…
Taunton
3:45
This
looks quite an open race – and victory for any of the 7 runners wouldn’t come as
a massive surprise.
Master Red and After Hours head the market – and whilst I
can see why, there are reasons to oppose them both…
Master Red is making his debut for David Pipe, having
transferred from the yard of Donald McCain.
He
is one of many horses to leave McCain this year – and most have improved for the
change of scenery.
If
Master Red has – and provided he’s ready to do himself justice today – then he
should run a big race.
But
there are enough questions marks to be opposing him at a best price of
11/4…
After Hours was a tenacious winner last time out – but
has got himself a 10lb rise for a short head win.
He’s
a fine looking horse – but I suspect the best of him will be seen when he goes
over fences.
Again, I’m happy enough to oppose him, at a price of
11/4.
The
horse I want to side with in the race, is De Faoithesdream.
He
was a massively impressive winner on his penultimate outing at Exeter, cantering
home by 10 lengths.
He
was raised 10lb for that win, so connections ran him again quickly, under a
penalty – but he disappointed in a hot race at Sandown.
De Faoithesdream is a front runner – and there was lots of pace in the Sandown race.
De Faoithesdream is a front runner – and there was lots of pace in the Sandown race.
That
put pressure on his jumping and it eventually cracked.
He
ultimately finished well beaten in that race, but I think the run can be
ignored…
Both
the Exeter run and the Sandown run, were over fences – but De Faoithesdream is
switched back to hurdles today.
I’ve
no issue with that, as he is equally effective over the small
obstacles.
He
is also now better handicapped over hurdles: he’s able to run today off a mark
of 128, whilst he is rated 132 over fences.
More
than that, he has the 7lb claimer, Lewis Gordon in the saddle today, so
depending on how you view that, it can be argued that he is effectively running
off a rating a pound lower than the rating he won from at Exeter.
The
other thing I like about De Faoithesdream, is that he is coming here relatively
fresh.
It
is 60 days since he ran at Sandown – and generally, horses like him, who race
exuberantly, tend to perform better on the back of a break.
Of
the others, then Lochnager will need to have come on massively for his seasonal
debut. He looked to me that day, like a horse who wanted a fence. However, he
can race prominently, so that could be an issue for De Faoithesdream.
Heath Hunter doesn’t look to have a lot in hand of his
mark – though the booking of David Noonan is virtually a free 5lb.
Whilst Sea Wall often looks like he could be a decent
horse – but often finds some way to get himself beaten.
If everything dropped right for him today, he’s another who could go close.
If everything dropped right for him today, he’s another who could go close.
But
in truth, it’s that kind of race – so at the price available – and safe in the
knowledge that he should run his race, I think De Faothesdream is a reasonable
bet.
0.25pt win De Faoithesdream 9/1
I
find the betting for the opening race on the card, quite fascinating…
Last
night, Safran de Cotte opened at 8/1 – and I felt it inevitable that his price
would crash.
And
sure enough, this morning, you can’t beat 4/1…
The
reason is quite simple.
6
runs ago, the horse was sent off a 7/1 chance in a 14 runner, class 1 chase at
Cheltenham, running off a mark of 121.
Today, he is running in a 9 runner, class 5 hurdle at
Taunton, off a mark of 100.
He
is also wearing blinker for the first time.
Looked at in those terms, 4/1 is an absurdly big price
!
The
trouble is, last time out, he was beaten nearly 100 lengths in a class 4
handicap hurdle at Huntingdon, off a mark of 105.
Based on that run, even with first time blinkers, 8/1 is
hardly attractive…
I
have no data to back it up: but my feeling is that these kind of horses are
generally best left alone.
They
are in serious decline, for whatever reason – and unless you know that has been
arrested, you are better off not backing them.
Instead, you should probably wait for them to show a
return to some kind of form – and then look to back them on their following run
(albeit probably from a higher mark – and at a shorter price).
Ofcourse that doesn’t mean Safran De Cotte can’t win
today – but it does mean that at 4/1 he almost certainly doesn’t represent
value.
In
theory, that should mean that something else in the race does - but it’s such a
poor contest, I’ve no idea what that might be !
Gallic Warrior catches my eye in the 3:15 race – but I’m
put off by his price.
He
showed promise on his first 2 runs this season, before unseating last time
out.
He’s
Paddy Brennans only ride on the card – and that could be significant.
However, he faces enough interesting rivals, for me to
resist the quote of 7/2, quite easily…
The
final race of interest on the Taunton card, is the handicap chase at
4:15.
Wychwood Brook won a similar race over course and
distance a couple of weeks ago and even off a 5lb higher mark, he looks the one
to beat today.
His
5lb rise is effectively offset by his claiming jockey, so his task shouldn’t be
too much more difficult than it was last time.
That
said, his current price of 9/4 leaves little margin for error.
Half
cases can be made for all of his rivals – though the one who interests me most,
is Cork Citizen…
He
makes his debit for David Pipe today having run last season, in Irish PTPs (and
Hunter Chases).
He
is part owned by Allan Stennett, who has had numerous decent horses with Pipe
(Ballynagour, probably the most famous of them).
I’m
sure Pipe will be able to elicit some improvement out of him – in which case he
is likely to be well handicapped off a mark of 125.
That
said, the improvement might take a few runs to materialise (unless the betting
says otherwise !), so he could well be one to just keep an eye on
today…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
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