Daily write-up - Feb 4th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wincanton and Towcester in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland.

There’s nothing too spectacular going on – but some interesting races non-the-less.

I’m sure a few of you sighed, when you saw the instant price crash on the early tip, Gores Island.

However, this time, we weren’t to blame…

Somebody else was backing him from at least 8:20 (possibly a little earlier) – and the bookmakers had just begun to take cover, when I issued.

I’ve no idea whether the money was tipster driven – or connections drive.

I hope it was the latter – but we’ll doubtless find out about 5 mins before the off !

Needless to say, I do fancy the horse – or I would have pulled the plug on the tip.

Let’s hope he doesn’t let me down…

I’ve also issued a second tip on the day – a saver for the first one !

The price of the favourite had drifted to the point ,where I felt it made sense to cover the initial bet.

Aside from the tips, I took a good look at 4 others races – and formed quite a strong view on them all.

I could easily have issued a couple more tips on the day – but was put off by the fact they are all low grade races (with their higher level of unpredictability).

Here are my thoughts:

Wincanton

3:05: Baoulet Delaroque is the obvious one in this – in fact, so obvious I would have expected him to be a fair bit shorter than 9/4.

He is a totally unexposed novice, who beat a well thought of horse, last time out – and he is taking on some largely exposed handicappers.

He’s been given a mark of 124 for his handicap debut - which doesn’t seem outrageous.

However, it would appear that connections are not quite so convinced – and that puts me off him…

Of the others, then Norse Legend on the obvious one to take him on with – and he looks like an EW bet to nothing, at 5/1.

2 others of more speculative interest, are The Geegeez geegee and Space Walker.

Both have to bounce back from disappointing last time out runs – but there is potential margin in their prices – particularly that of Space Walker - if they do…

3:40: I’ll be a little surprised if this race isn’t won by either As De Fer or Gores Island…

The former was a massively impressive winner at Warwick last week and runs today under a 7lb penalty, before a 19lb weight rise kicks in.

In theory, he is therefore 12lb ‘well in’ – and whilst I’m not sure he wants a drop back in trip, he does want very heavy ground.

If he runs to the form he showed last week, he will be very difficult to beat – and he has back-class which suggests he could easily do so.

He’s a very difficult horse to price up. I half expected him to be put in ridiculously short (around 6/4). 3/1 seems generous and in the circumstances, he is worth having on side.

It’s just a shame that Gores Island is running in the same race.

He’s a horse I’ve had my eye on for a couple of months, and I think he was unlucky not to win last time out.

That was over todays course and distance and he was just moving into contention when he was brought down.

It was too far out to say for certain, but I suspect he would have gone very close that day – and on 6lb better terms, I expect him to have the beating of race winner, Quite by Chance.

Although Gores Island is not as well handicapped on old form as As De Fer, he is still very well handicapped.

He won the novice chase on todays card, 12 months ago, from a 3lb higher mark than he races off today.

Both the trip and the ground are perfect for him – and if As De Fer weren’t in the race, I would be pretty confident.

My feeling yesterday afternoon was that I might put him up EW (to effectively cover As De Fer).

However, he is shorter in the betting than I expected – and As de Fer longer.

Splitting the stakes across the pair, therefore makes more sense…

Towcester

2:10: This is quite an open race, and I’m a bit surprised to see Admiral Blake the outsider of the field (available at 20/1 in places).

He ran a reasonable race last week at Catterick on his second run back after an absence.

He looked likely to take a hand in the finish that day, but ran out of steam between the final two fences.

If that run has brought him on, then off a 2lb lower mark, I think he has a definite chance today.

In fairness, it is difficult to rule many out of the race.

Georgian King is potentially very well handicapped – particularly with a 7lb claimer on board.

He’s been running in better races than todays – and if freshened up by a mid winter break, he is likely to be a tough one to beat.

That said, he’s a 9/2 shot, so the market hasn’t really missed him…

3:15: I toyed with tipping Hopes Wishes in this – but if I had done, it would have been EW as I would be pretty fearful of Notebook.

I’m also conscious of the fact it is a pretty low grade race – and it’s not untypical to see horses the subject of big punts in such races, and then run much better than you would reasonably expect  (Seymour Eric could be such an animal in this).

In terms of the case for Hopes Wishes:

Then he won a couple of races earlier in the season for his new connections – before being outclassed in a class 1 race at Newbury.

He was also well beaten last time at Huntington – but that was over a trip half a mile further than today and he travelled very sweetly, to the home turn.

As a result of his last 2 runs, he is now down to a mark just 2lb higher than his last winning mark – and with Harry Cobden in the saddle I think he could be pretty well handicapped.

However, Notebook won like a fast improving horse last time – and with the chance of one or two others coming out of the woodwork, I think Hopes Wishes is better off just being a mention.

3:50: It’s a very similar situation in this race, to the previous one.
I thought long and hard about tipping Princess Fleur – but the fact it is a low grade race (and therefore everything might not be exactly as it appears), has put me off…

Taking things at face value, I would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from the top 3 in the betting:

Princess Fleur travelled very nicely at Warwick last time out on her first run for 6 months.

That was in a better class race than today’s – and over a trip which appeared to stretch her.

With that run under her belt – and off a perfectly feasible mark, I think she is the one to beat.

Mr Bachster won well last time out, but has been given a harsh looking 11lb for his troubles.

Olympian Boy won well over hurdles last time – but is over fences today; is 5lb higher; and is now 12 years old.

Despite that, I think he is the one for Princess Fleur to beat.
That said, there are 2 or 3 others who have the potential to come out of the woodwork and spoil the party.

High Aspirations is the most obvious – with Castletown another.

It’s a tough call to make – and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off siding with Princess Fleur – but there are just enough niggles to stop me from tipping her.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tip Summary

(E) Wincanton 3:40 Gores Island 0.375pt win 7/1

(L) Wincanton 3:40 As De Fer 0.125pt win 3/1