Monday 29 February 2016

Review of the day

I should have known better than to suggest the other day, that we’d recently been a bit short of runners up...

Over the years, the service has had more than it’s fair share of second places – and we got 2 more this afternoon, to add to the tally.
First it was Renard, who ran exactly the race I expected, but was picked off close home by Minella Reception.
I didn’t think there was a progressive horse in the race – but Minella Reception was clearly just that, and he waltzed passed Renard between the last 2 fences.

In fairness, to Renard, he battled on bravely, having probably done a bit too much early, in the cheek pieces.
He’ll likely be dropped another pound or two – and on truly soft ground, he could still have a relatively modest event in him.

Next up it was No Duffer.
The market move (14/1 into 7/1) and the race position taken up by Paddy Brennan (tucked in behind the leaders), made it clear very early, that we were on a ‘live’ on with him.
Unfortunately, he managed to bump into an even live-er one !

Leo Luna had shown absolutely nothing in 3 runs this season – and had plummeted down the handicap as a result.
However, he too was very well backed and under an aggressive ride from Jamie Moore, had too many guns for No Duffer.
It was always a possibility - but it was a real shame…

As for the mentions:

Then Saroque could easily have been a third second placed tip on the day.
Again, he ran really well – but bumped into one, in the shape of Fourovakind, who was returning to form, having shown little earlier in the season.
And again, the market foretold the improvement…

The market also foretold the poor run by Pemba.
She was odds on with bookmakers early this morning (around even money on BF) – but had drifted out to 7/4 at the off.
The story was similar with Winner Massagot and Simply Ned on Sunday – and again, the layers got it right, as she weakened out of things up the straight.
The area of laying weak favourites close to the off, definitely warrants investigation.

Milansbar battled bravely to win the handicap chase – the market didn’t say a lot about him pre-race.
It didn’t day much about Albert Dolivate either – but he managed to bump into an improver and was another one who had to settle for a second placing, thereby capping a day of near misses…

Finally, just a reminder that as it’s a Friday, I will open the tipping window at 6:00 in case there is anything I can tip this evening in tomorrows big races.

TVB.

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