Daily write-up - Jan 31st

Fontwell was washed away on Friday, leaving just the 2 meetings today: at Sedgefield and Punchestown.

Both are reasonable – if unspectacular – with the highlight of the day, the Grade 2 Tied Cottage chase at Punchestown.

I’ve managed to find a tip on the day – and it will be the final tip for January.

It’s been a generally disappointing month: part down to the weather – and part down to me struggling for a bit of form.

Officially speaking, the month will finish about level – which is hardly a disaster.

That said, if you have been just following the tips, I suspect you may have made a slight loss (unless you were able to secure best prices).

Those using the Info, have probably fared a little better, because there were plenty of winning mentions in the first half of the month.
As always, you pay your money, you make your choice…

On to today then – and the rationale for the tip – plus a few other thoughts…

Sedgefield

3:50

Mwaleshi has been on my radar since his first run of this season - and I’m hopeful that I’ve chosen the ‘right’ day to support him…

The run that first caught my eye, was at Aintree, in a veterans chase.

He ultimately finished well beaten that day, but the race was over 3 miles and he showed up well until the home straight.

My feeling was that dropped back half a mile, he would be interesting…

That actually happened in his very next race: but it was quite a hot contest at Wetherby (won by Village Vic) and with the ground a touch quick and his mark unchanged, I opted to leave him alone.

His next run was also over 2m4f – but that was over the National fences – and he only got as far at the 9^th…

On his most recent run, he was dropped back to 2 miles – but that is probably too short for him, unless he is able to outclass the opposition.

He wasn’t that day, but still ran pretty well behind a couple of decent sorts in Gardefort and Sir Valentino.

As a result of that run, he has been dropped a further 6lb in the handicap – which means he will running today off a mark 10lb lower than he started the season from.

That makes him a very well handicapped horse.

Precisely a year ago today, he ran third at Wetherby off a mark of 142.

That was in a class 2 event and he was beaten just over 2 lengths.
Today, he is running in a class 3 event, over the same trip – off a mark of 125.

I think there is every chance he can take advantage of the handicappers leniency…

In terms of concerns: then I have a couple…

Firstly, there could be a lot of pace in the race – and Mwaleshi likes to race prominently.

That said, I had the same concern over Johnny Og last Saturday – and he managed to find a way round it !

Mwaleshi doesn’t need to front run, so hopefully Danny Cook will find a way to deal with things.

My other slight concern is the ground.
I would prefer heavy (or at least soft) – but the official going description is good to soft.
That said, the going stick reading is 5 – which I generally consider soft – and I honestly can’t believe it can be that quick in Sedgefield at this time of the year.

In truth, both a minor concerns rather than major issues.

All of this said, my biggest concern is definitely market strength.

Winners from the Sue Smith stable – particularly when they have Danny Cook on board – are well backed. Almost without exception.
I could see an argument for Mwaleshi being a 5/2 shot today. If he goes off at bigger than 7/2, I will be worried…

0.5pt win Mwaleshi 4/1

Talking of Smith/Cook runners that are well backed…

Good Vibrations in the handicap hurdle at 2:15, seems to be firmly in that bracket !

He opened up last night at 3/1 – but is a 6/4 shot now !

I thought he faced a couple of potentially interesting rivals in the shape of Carlo Rocks and the well handicapped Up and Go.

However, if the money is down (and it appears to be), I suspect we might see Good Vibrations take his form to another level.

The novice handicap chase at 2:45 looks a pretty open affair…

Victory for any of the 5 runners would come as no great surprise, so in the circumstances I am drawn to the outsider, Lucematic.

She is relatively unexposed for a 10 year old – and has run only once so far this season.

That was when finishing a very creditable third at Newcastle, off the same mark as today.

It’s over 2 months since that race, which is a slight concern – but provided she is ready to do herself justice, I suspect she could outrun her current odds of 7/1 (and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her drift, near the off).

Punchestown

The Tied Cottage chase is off at 3:00.

Felix Yonger is understandably favourite – but you won’t be too surprised to learn that I would be inclined to take him on with Flemenstar.

He took advantage of Un De Sceuxs falls to win the grade 1 two mile chase at Leopardstown over Christmas – and whilst he was maybe a lucky winner that day, it was still very much a step back in the right direction, for this formally high class chaser.

It’s clear that he’ll never reach the heights that were once hoped – but on official ratings, he is still the equal of Felix Yonger – and we know he’s in good form.

Certainly at 4/6 Felix; 9/2 Flemenstar, I know where the value lies…

There is a very tricky looking Pertemps qualifier off at 2:30.

I thought Mall Dini the most likely winner – but I can’t be interested in him at 5/1.

High Stratus is a better value option at 12/1.

He ran a nice race in a conditions event last time – and his 4lb rise for that run is effectively offset by the claim of Donagh Myler.

I think he has a better chance of winning, than his odds imply.

Not for Burning is a less likely winner – but more likely to get placed.
If 16 go to post and you can secure some of the 16/1 with PP, he is worth considering as an EW play.

It’s a little disappointing to see Baie Des Iles installed as 3/1 favourite for the Grand National trial at 4:05 – but I do think she deserves to be market leader.

I was keen on her last time when she won under a peach of a ride from Derek O Connor – and a 6lb weight rise for that win looks fair enough.
She’s not got O Connor in the saddle today – but in Ruby, she has a fair replacement !

Again, it’s a very eye catching booking (particularly as it sees Ruby riding close to his minimum) – and whilst I couldn’t really recommend supporting her at the current price, I do think she is the most likely winner.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.