Daily write-up - Jan 27th

The abandonment of Bangor early this morning, means that NH racing will take place at just Catterick and Thurles this afternoon….

I’ve been running this service for almost 4 seasons now and this month is fast becoming the most frustrating that I’ve experienced in all that time.

Every single meeting seems to have been in some doubt – with at least one being lost most days.

I hate to think how much time I’ve spent studying form for races which ended up not taking place – and coming up with tips that I’ve been unable to issue.

There was another one today at Bangor – and one that I was pretty keen on.

I realise that it’s nobody’s fault – and there’s nothing that can be done about it – but it can still drive you mad !

Anyway, it is as it is…

I’ve still ended up with a small tip on the day.

It’s a horse that I tipped last time it ran – but it was a big disappointment that day.

My original intention was to leave it alone today – but on balance, I think it is worth a tiny play, to see if it can redeem itself !

Here’s the rationale – plus a few other very brief thoughts…

Catterick

3:35

Money for Nothing was one of two horses that I tipped in a small race at Market Rasen on Boxing day.

I felt he had a very good chance that day, in what looked an incredibly weak contest.
However, things didn’t pan out as I’d hoped.

There was no pace in the race and Money for Nothing pulled like crazy.

He never gave himself a chance – and a mistake before half way sealed his fate.
He has been dropped 3lb for that run – but more importantly, a hood has been applied and Adam Wedge returned to the saddle.

Wedge rode him on his penultimate run at Bangor (when he caught my eye) but was replaced by Alain Cawley, last time.

Hopefully the hood will settle Money for Nothing today – and Aye Well should provide some pace.

If that happens, then hopefully Money for Nothing will run his race and we can find out how good he is…

In truth, there is a chance that he won’t be quite good enough.

He is stepping up in grade today and therefore taking on better class rivals.

That said, subsequent events seem to suggest that I underestimated the strength of the race he ran in last time…

The winner, Chankilla, has subsequently run poorly at Towcester – but the 3 other horses who finished behind him that day have run in 4 subsequent races between them – and won all 4 !

I’m not sure that has a particular relevance to the chance of Money for Nothing today – but it’s interesting non the less !

In terms of his rivals, then the one I fear most, is Uno Valeroso…

We were also on him last time – but he was unlucky not win, just failing to reel in long time leader, Cloudy Joker.

The handicapper has kept him on the same mark following that run – and that makes him the one to beat.
However, a best price of 3/1has little margin in it…

A case of sorts can be made for most of the others, and Aye Well will be a big danger if he gets an uncontested lead.

However, I think Money for Nothing has a chance, provided he settles in the race – and that chance is a fair bit better than the 20/1 on offer…

0.125pt win Money for Nothing 20/1

The only other race of interest, from a betting perspective, on the Catterick card, is the handicap chase at 1:50.
However, this is a low grade affair and consequently it is difficult to be confident when assessing it.

Veroce is the one I’m most drawn to. It’s not easy to get a proper handle on him, but was a beaten favourite last time over a shorter trip.

I would expect him to do better today – particularly if he is ridden more aggressively.

However, a best price of 9/2 leaves little margin for error.

Admiral Blake was the other one that caught my eye – but he is risky (on only his second outing over fences) and again, the price of 6/1 has little juice in it…

Thurles

Virtually all of the races on the Thurles card look like ones to avoid from a betting perspective.

That said, there are a few interesting horses running, who are worth keeping an eye on…

Most notably, Goonyella, who runs in the handicap hurdle at 3:25.

He is my (and Robs !) long range fancy for the Grand National – and I’m sure its no coincidence that he’s racing over hurdles (rather than fences) with the weights for the big race due out in the next few weeks.

I wouldn’t expect him to win today – but I would be hopeful that he will put up a decent show.

In the following race on the card (4:00) it’s fascinating to see Charles Byrnes Either or Out, drifting to 15/2, having opened up a 5/1.

The horse has run in 4 maiden hurdles – and been beaten by an average of 100 lengths in each race.

In such circumstances, you might wonder how he was ever installed at 5/1 – but this is Charles Byrnes we are talking about !

Furthermore, Davy Russell is in the saddle - so it’s no surprise, that the bookmakers priced up ‘cautiously’…

It’s also no suspire to see that he’s not been backed – Charles isn’t stupid !
It will likely be a game of cat and mouse until the off – but my guess is that Either or Out will be beaten 100+ lengths again today (unless he is very well backed late on !).

Finally, The Maguires (Adrian and Finny) team up with Knockraha Pylon in the handicap hurdle at 2:15.

The horse is making its seasonal debut, and sports first time blinkers.

He’s very difficult to get a handle on (won a maiden last year), but unlike Either or Out, you are almost guaranteed to get a run for your money if you back it.

That said, 8/1 in a 16 runner handicap, doesn’t strike me as particularly good value…

Here’s hoping for great day ahead !

TVB.