Daily write-up - Jan 20th

The frost has claimed Newbury today, leaving meetings at Musselburgh and Fairyhouse…

On RUK yesterday, they had telephone interviews with the clerks of the course, from both Musselburgh and Newbury.

Their stories were similar: both expected temperatures to fall overnight to around –3 degrees, but they didn’t envisage any problems.
The inspections scheduled for this morning, were just precautionary, they said – particularly at Newbury, where ground covers had also been deployed.

I therefore felt quite comfortable absorbing myself in form study during the evening.

True neither meeting was spectacular – but there were a few decent races spread across them, and I was optimistic that I might be able to find the odd interesting angle…

Furthermore, I thought I had – so it was very disappointing this morning to find that Newbury had been frozen off.
These things happen, I guess - presumably the frost was heavier than they expected.

It still feels like I wasted a chunk of yesterday – though I guess that’s an occupational hazard (rain significantly affecting the ground, can be just as annoying !).

Anyway, we still have Musselburgh – and Fairyhouse – and whilst it is generally low grade stuff, I’ve managed to salvage one tip for the day…

Here’s the rationale for that – and a few other thoughts…

Musselburgh

2:55

This is the best – and most valuable - race on the card, and the bookmakers reckon it’s a 3 horse affair…

Shrewd, Holly Bush Henry and Zaidiyn have been backed almost to the exclusion of everything else, and to an extent, I can understand why…

The first two named were both impressive, wide margin winners, last time out and would appear to be progressive sorts. However, they will each have to contend with big weights rises today (15 & 14lb respectively) – and a step up in grade (class 4 to class 3).

They might be up to it – but at the prices, they would always be the kind of horses that I would want to oppose…

When I first looked at the race, it was the other one of the 3, Zaidiyn, whom I was keen on siding with.
He ran really well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Baby King at Haydock and followed that up, with another good run on New Years day, when third over todays course and distance.

He made a bad mistake at the last that day, so could well have finished even closer to the winner. Running off the same mark today, I think he sets the standard.

Frederic also ran in the race on New Years day.

It was his first outing of the season – and his first for Micky Hammond (he was trained by Donald McCain last season).

Despite it being a class 2 contest and him likely to need the run, he was strong in the betting that day, going off at just 10/1.

Furthermore, he travelled really well – and was only beaten between the final two flights.

Rather surprisingly, the handicapper has dropped him 4lb for that run – and with the benefit of it under his belt, I think he should get much closer to Zaidiyn today.

Whether he can beat him, is a different matter – and it also remains to be seen whether he can beat the other 2 market leaders – however, there is little doubt in my mind, that as a young, potentially progressive horse, he represents the value in a market that seems unduly skewed towards the favourites.

0.25pt win Frederic 20/1

The rest of the Musselburgh card is low class stuff and the only other horse I could have been interested in, is Arctic Court, in the closing race.

I’ve mentioned him before – but I’ve also mentioned his need for decent ground – and he’s not going to get that.

That said, he is in danger of becoming embarrassingly well handicapped – and as a 12 year old, he needs to win one of these soon, or his chance will be gone.

Even with the ground against him, I’m not surprised to see that he has been backed.

I suspect conditions won’t be desperate – and whilst the ground will likely cost him a few lengths, he could still be too good for his rivals.

It’s a tricky one to call: he was 12/1 last night – but is just half that now.
I guess you pay your money and make your choice…

Fairyhouse

This is another low grade card – and one that looks best avoided, from a betting perspective…

The only horse on the card that caught my eye, is Overtures, in the handicap hurdle at 3:35.

He represents the Gigginstown/Gordon Elliot combination – and is the only ride on the day for crack apprentice, Jack Kennedy.

He hasn’t shown much in 5 attempts over hurdles so far – but that means he gets into his first handicap off a mark of just 98.

Against seemingly limited opposition, I would have been very interested in him, if he had been backed - but he hasn’t…

Instead, the favourite, Shannak, has been backed like a horse who’s already past the post – with only See Double You offering any market opposition (33/1 early into 8/1 !).

With these kind of races (and the card is full of them), the market tends to know.
If there is any late support for Overtures, I might get interested: otherwise I will probably just watch…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.