Daily write-up - Jan 8th

Just the one NH meeting has survived the weather again today: at Doncaster…

It’s been a quiet old week.
To be honest, I didn’t expect to be tipping today – although one horse running, has been very much on my radar for almost 2 months now.

I was initially concerned about the ground for him – but I’ve decided to take a risk.

Hopefully it will pay off !

Here’s the rationale for the tip – and a few other brief thoughts…

Doncaster

2:25

It seems a long time ago, that I marked down Pure Poteen as a horse we had to be on next time out…

That was following his run at Warwick, at the beginning of November, when he ran the progressive Conas Taoi to 5 lengths giving him 15lb (excluding his jockeys allowance).

That struck me as a smart piece of form, and whilst Conas Taoi was a little lucky to frank it next time out (he looked beaten when gifted the race on the run in), there would have been no disgrace, even if he had finished second.

As a result of that run, Conas Taoi is now rated 17lb higher than when he beat Pure Poteen – whilst the latter runs today off a mark just 2lb higher…

The big question in my mind, is why it has taken so long for Pure Poteen to reappear.

I’ve been monitoring him closely, and he has been declared for a few races – however, on each occasion, he has been scratched before the off, generally on account of the ground…

I was actually a little surprised that he was declared to run today – but my understanding is that connections expect him to go on the ground and if that is the case, I think he’s the one to beat…
In truth, this doesn’t look a particularly deep race.

Lovely Job is the one to beat, based on his excellent second last time at Leicester.

He runs off the same mark today – and could well appreciate the step up in trip.

The other 2 worthy of a mention are Mysteree and The Rambling Kid.

The former won well on his seasonal debut - but that was after a long absence, so you’d have to be worried that he might ‘bounce’. Whilst The Rambling Kid comes here on the back off a fall – which is never ideal for a novice…
My expectation is that the race will primarily concern Lovely Job and Pure Poteen.

Provided Pure Poteen handles the ground, then I don’t think there will be much between them, so as you can get roughly the same price on him to place as you can on Lovely Job to win, it was a relatively easy decision on what to tip !

0.25pt EW Pure Poteen 6/1

There is very little else of interest on the Doncaster card…

In the novice chase at 12:45, Vyta Du Roc is clearly the one to beat - but I’m not convinced he’s a 2/5 shot…

That’s a short enough price to be taking about any novice chaser – let alone one who might not be ideally suited by conditions and who faces a couple of potentially decent rivals…

The bet in the race, is probably Bouvreil at 4/1.

However, the potential fly in the ointment is Legal Exit.

He was decent in Ireland and makes his debut for Tom Lacey today – with Dickie Johnson on board. You can get 12/1 on him in a couple of places – which holds a bit of appeal…

The only other race of interest on the card, is the following mares hurdle (off at 1:20).

This looks between the top 3 in the market – and I now think that the right one is at the head, in the shape of Iron Butterfly.
She is a dual course winner - and is also proven in heavy ground.

Whilst she is no certainty, she carries less risk than her two main market rivals…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.