Wednesday 13 January 2016

Daily write-up - Jan 13th

Newcastle was abandoned earlier in the week, leaving Taunton as the sole NH meeting today…

And it’s not a bad meeting either, with a couple of decent handicaps the features on the 7 race card.

I did think I would be able to find a tip in one of them – and if pushed, I guess I could have done.
But I don’t see a particular need to push things at the moment – so you’ll have to settle for some ‘mentions’ instead…

The main race of the day, is the handicap chase at 2:40.
Top Wood looks the right favourite in this but he doesn’t look unbeatable - in fact, his record suggests he is one to take on.
The trouble is, there are 3 or 4 that I could have taken him on with…
Despite the trip appearing too far, I would be very fearful of Easter Day, if he is well backed.
Simply, he could be different class to his rivals - and if that is the case, his stamina is unlikely to be fully tested.
However, he does have some big questions marks hanging over him – so he’s not one I could ever have tipped.
I did actually consider tipping Wychwood Brook. He was 8/1 first thing – and if his price had drifted to 10/1 (which I thought it might), we would have been on him.
He has ticks in a lot of boxes - and I would certainly expect him to run his race.
I would just be a little fearful he might find one or two, too good.
In addition to the 3 mentioned, I could also make half a case for all of the others, bar Paddy the Oscar.
Consequently, any bet in the race would have to be ‘value’ based – and I felt that there was never quite enough value in Wychwoods price…

The following race on the card (3:10), is less competitive - but the market has the right horses at its head…
Pull the Chord won the equivalent race 12 months ago and must have a decent chance of repeating the trick today – even off a 15lb higher mark…
He beat Sirop De Menthe on his seasonal debut and that one has subsequently franked the form, in no uncertain manner.
I suspect that Pull the Chord is still improving – and he probably sets the standard today.
Winning Spark is the solid option in the race.
He was unlucky over course and distance, 2 runs ago – and was still in with every chance when falling last time out, at Exeter.
He remains handicapped to go well today – and I’ll be surprised if he finishes out of the frame.
The potential fly in the ointment is The Brock Again. He’s been off the track for over 12 months – but the early betting is suggesting that he is fit enough to do himself justice today.
If he remains strong in the market, I would be fearful of him.
The other one worth a mention, is Venetias, Adelar.
He’s been off the track for nearly 3 years – and as an 11 year old, it is a bit surprising that connections are persisting with him.
I suspect today won’t be his day – but he is likely one to bear in mind, in a month or twos time…

There is a cracking Hunter chase off at 3:40.
It will be great to watch a number of old favourites in action – many having their first runs for new yards…
The betting suggests it is between 4 of them: Pearlysteps, Join Together, Chance de Roy and Dark Lover – and it probably knows best.
However, I might be tempted by a small EW play on Ballyalia Man.
He’s been pulled up in two recent Points – but at least he’s had recent runs.
On his old form, he would have a squeak – and he should handle todays trip/ground.
There is a ridiculous amount of guesswork – but at 33/1 he could be worth a tiny, speculative play…


Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

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