Daily write-up - Jan 1st

As I said in my earlier email, there is a ridiculously good card at Cheltenham tomorrow (so good in fact, I’m tempted to call in on my way down to Cornwall !).

Whilst I’ve not got time to go through the races quite as thoroughly as I would if I were tipping (I try to re-watch the last few runs of anything I tip), I do have a some views on them, which I thought it were worth sharing with you.

Just to re-iterate, these are not tips – but they are worth considering if you plan to get involved in any of tomorrows races (hang overs permitting, of course !)

12:10

West approach caught my eye last time, behind Uknowhatimeanharyy and this looks like the right race for him.

Back in trip by half a mile – on heavy ground – these are the conditions I would have wanted for him.
In fairness, it’s not a race where you can be adamant – because there are too many unknowns.
That said, I like his chance just as much as any of the market leaders and would make him one of the best bets of the day at 10/1.

12:45

This isn’t a particularly strong race, with questions makes against all of the runners – bar Alternatif.
He won well at Fontwell last time – and a 4lb rise in the handicap is hardly punitive.

I could make half a case for almost all of the other runners – but no more than that.

Beg to Differ would be the main concern – but he is likely to find the trip stretching him.

De Kerry Man would be interesting if guaranteed fully tuned up – but it could well be Financial Climate who ends up following home Alternatif.

1:20

This is as exciting a race as has been run all season (in my opinion !).

As you should know by now, I love Seeyouatmidnight – and I expect him to run very well. I just think he might be done for toe by something (unless he runs them all into the ground !).

Volnay De Thaix could be the one to do that - if he’s in touch jumping the last (though that’s not guaranteed).

Three Musketeers is an understandable favourite – and probably sets the standard.

However, I have a feeling that Aubusson could be the one to beat.

It’s crazy to be writing off horses of the calibre of Le Mercury and Minella Rocco – but I am ! Whilst I’m also dismissing Blaklion on account of the trip.

My guess is that Aubusson will lead home Three Musketeers and Seeyouatmidnight – though it’s a race I am more likely to just watch.

1:55

I fancied Little Jon last time out when he finished behind Village Vic – and I see no reason to desert him tomorrow.

I thought he was going just as well as the eventual winner, when he slipped on landing at half way, last time – and he will be 8lb better off tomorrow…

He certainly represents the value call, at 10/1.

Of the others, I could be interested in Top Gamble on the ground – but I’m not sure about the track.
The track and ground will be perfect for Thomas Crapper – it’s just whether he is good enough.

At 20/1, he may be worth a small EW interest.

2:30

Our old friend Rons Dream heads the market in this – and I think she will run well.

The trouble is, she is edging up the handicap and another victory might just be beyond her (even in near perfect conditions).

Instead, I’ll take her on with Batavir. He finished behind her when she won over the course in November – but is 13lb better off today.
He also ran very well on his subsequent outing behind Baradari at Haydock.

The dangers in the race look generally priced about right. The only other one worth mentioning is Sybarite.
You should know the drill with him by now: he gets well behind and then finishes with a rattle.
3 miles, heavy ground and the Cheltenham hill are precisely what he needs – if he’s anywhere near turning for home, things could become interesting !

3:05

With the heavy ground far from ideal for Cole Harden, I can understand Top Notch heading the market.

However, I don’t think he sets an insurmountable standard…

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Camping Ground run well – though Robert Walfords stable has been very quiet recently.
My inclination is to take a chance with Lil Rockerfellla. The trip is a slight question mark – and he’s unproven in this class.

However, he is massively progressive – as tough as old boots and in the form of his life.

Furthermore he’s available at 20/1.

There will certainly be far worse EW bets running tomorrow !

Just a final one worth a mention at Catterick.

Small field, low grade chases aren’t my favourite at the moment (!) – but I would still be tempted by Cloudy Joker in the 2:50 race.

He’s caught my eye the last twice he’s run – and he’s got ideal conditions tomorrow.

At 4/1 early, I suspect I would find him hard to resist !