Daily write-up - Jan 17th

The abandonment of Kelso means that there is just the one NH meeting today, at Leopardstown in Ireland…

The meeting is dominated by a couple of very valuable handicaps: one over fences and the other over hurdles.

The hurdle race might be remembered by readers of a particular vintage, as the Sweeps hurdle.

Here is a bit of background (courtesy of Wikipedia !):

‘The Coral.ie hurdle evolved from the Irish Sweeps Hurdle, an event which was first run in 1969. This was one of several races which contributed to the Irish Hospitals' Sweepstake, a scheme to help fund investment in Ireland's health service. Thousands of tickets were sold to the public, and each was allocated with the name of a horse due to run in a particular race. The tickets corresponding to the winning horse could yield a substantial dividend. The Irish Sweeps Hurdle initially took place at Fairyhouse, and it was then transferred to Leopardstown in 1971. In its early years the race took place in December, and prior to becoming a handicap it served as a major trial for the Champion Hurdle.

A second phase of the race's history began in 1987, when it became known as the Ladbroke Hurdle. This event was run at Leopardstown each year in January until 2000, but it was then switched to a different venue, Ascot in Great Britain. Since 2001 this has been the usual venue of the Ladbroke Hurdle, and the race is now scheduled to be run in December.

The Pierse Hurdle, named after its sponsor Pierse Contracting Ltd, was introduced at Leopardstown in January 2001. It had an identical format to that of the "Ladbroke", and it was in effect a continuation of the same event. The race was sponsored by MCR Group in 2010 and 2011, Boylesports bookmakers from 2012, and Coral from 2016.’

A history lesson as well as some tips – never let it be said that TVB doesn’t give you that bit more

Needless to say, both races are ferociously competitive – but I’ve decided to take them on.

We’ll obviously need a bit of luck – but hopefully the selections will give us a good run for our money.

Here’s the rationale:

Leopardstown

2:15

25 runners – 8 of them owned by JP McManus. I think it’s reasonable to assume he’s keen on winning the prize !

Barry Geraghty must have had quite a job picking between them, so it seems significant that he has opted for After Rain.
A young, progressive hurdler – who’s form moved to a different level, when he was fitted with a hood, it’s no surprise to see him installed as favourite…

I’m not too surprised to see Desoto Country as second favourite either.

A fair novice with Donald McCain, he looked an improved performer on his first outing for Gordon Elliot.

Third favourite is Buiseness Sivola, Ruby Walsh’s choice of the 4 Willie Mullins runners.

Combining the 3 of them, works out a shade of odds against – which might appear tight (considering the field size), but is probably not too far off the mark…

That said, there can be little value in backing any of them, bearing in mind the need for luck in running etc…

Instead, I’ve opted to side with a couple of bigger priced runners:

The first of those is Vive La France.
He hasn’t run since the Galway festival in late July and has his first outing for Alan Fleming today – so clearly, a fair bit has to be taken on trust.

However, he did absolutely dot up last time out – and even a 12lb weight rise might not be enough to prevent him following up.

I’m choosing to read it as a positive that he’s not been out since Galway – as that was a way connections could preserve his handicap mark for a big race.

And whilst you wouldn’t expect a horse leaving Tony Martins stable to improve – Alan Fleming has been absolutely flying this season: his first as private trainer to Barry Connell.

This looks to have all the hallmarks of a ‘plot’ horse – and it would be a huge feather in the cap of both Fleming and Connell if they were to pull it off.

Ofcourse it won’t be easy – but I’m optimistic that they have the horse to do it with…

The other one I want on side is Bamako Moriviere.

He’s a completely different sort.

Trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Rich Ricci, he doesn’t appear to be the first string for either.

Furthermore, he’s only run 4 times in his life – and just the twice over hurdles.

One of those occasions was on his debut for Mullins at Limerick over Christmas.

That was in a small field conditions race, but Bamako Moriviere looked to be going every bit as well as the winner, Dicosimo, turning into the straight that day.
Dicosimo went away from him at that point – but he still ran a very good race, considering it was his first outing in nearly a year.

I just find it fascinating that he is now running in just about the most competitive handicap of the season, when there must have been a host of other possible targets.

Ofcourse, there is a possibility that it will all be too much for him and he just wont be able to cope.
However, there is also the possibility that he will show himself much better than a mark, which the assessor effectively had to guess, based on just a couple of outings.

At odds of 25/1, I figured him worth a tiny risk.

0.25pt win Vive La France 16/1

0.125pt win Bamako Moriviere 25/1

3:00

Los Amigos was a big eye catcher last time out.

That was in the very valuable Paddy Power chase, run at Leopardstown over the Christmas period.

Prominent throughout, he was still cruising jumping the third last, but ran out of steam once into the home straight.
In a way, that wasn’t too surprising.

He hadn’t run since the Irish Grand National in April (where he was sent off favourite) – and whilst he does stay 3 miles, the application of first time blinkers probably caused him to race a little too keenly.

The blinkers stay on today - but he is dropped back in trip by 3 furlongs, which I think should help – certainly his 3 chase wins have all been over this kind of trip.

Formerly trained by Jim Dreaper, Los Amigos has always looked the type to win a decent chase – and hopefully today will be his day.

I’m a little concerned to see that regular pilot, Andy Lynch is on board Fine Rightly, as I would see this one as the biggest danger.

I have no idea whether Lynch had a say in the matter, but I certainly wouldn’t view it as a positive.

That said, in Adrian Heskin, Los Amigos still has a fine jockey, who hopefully will be able to come good on his first ever ride for the McLoughlin stable.

Of the others, then Blood Cotil and Seabass look the main dangers.
That said, with the rest of the field either JP or Gigginstown owned, they can’t be easily dismissed !

0.375pt win Los Amigos 12/1

The markets seems to be about right, in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 1:50…

Childrens List and Gallant Oscar look by far the most likely winners – but are priced up accordingly.

I would actually have a slight preference for the former – but at 4/1, any value is minimal.

Of the others, then the apparent dangers all seem priced about right.

Not for Burning and Sammy Black look the most likely, if there is to be a ‘shock’ – but I’ll be a bit surprised if the race isn’t won by one of the market principals.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.