Daily write-up - Jan 9th

3 NH meetings have survived the weather today: at Kempton and Chepstow in the UK – and Punchestown in Ireland.

The high light of the day will be the re-scheduled Welsh National – assuming it goes ahead !

The ground at Chepstow is already at saturation point – and with a band of rain expected to pass over the course some time during the day, it’s going to be a race against time…

Don’t believe that the race will actually take place, until you see the tapes going up !

The is no such weather drama at Kempton – but the desperate conditions have taken there toll there and fields are on the small side.

A few of them will get even smaller, assuming Chepstow takes place, as a handful of runners currently declared, will be rerouted to the Welsh venue…

All in all, hardly ideal conditions for betting…

Consequently, we are a little light in that area, with 4 tips spread across 3 races.

I could have forced a couple more - but I saw very little margin in prices (for the respective risks).

If you feel the need for more action, my thoughts below should help to guide…

Kempton

3:10

I’m quite keen on Shangani in this…

He’s back down to the mark from which he ran Ballinvarrig very close, over course and distance, just over 12 months ago.

He’s not done too much since then – but he was in the process of running a good race last time out, when he slipped up on the home turn.

That was in the corresponding race to the one that he had finished second in a year earlier – thereby confirming his liking for both course and distance.

Soft going is also key to Shangani – so that’s one box with a big tick in !

I also like the fact that Charlie Deutsch is on top. Venetia seems to be using him more on her fancied horses and he is good value for his 5lb claim.

Simply, he’s a very solid selection – and there are not too many of those in this particular contest…

For a start Masters Hill and Chase the Spud are likely to miss the race, in order to take up their entries in the Welsh Grand National.

Harrys Farewell looks weighted to the hilt; whilst Poole Master is badly out of form.

Seafood and Kruzhlinin are both potentially interesting on their first runs for new stables – but they have been priced up defensively and both are likely to improve for the run (I suspect they are being targeted at the Grand National).

The ones I am most fearful of are Le Reve and Granddads Horse.

The former will have ideal conditions – but I also suspect he has little in hand of his handicap mark.

Grandads Horse is potentially well handicapped – but both he and his stable are struggling for form. I would also be concerned about his ability to handle the prevailing conditions.

I would expect Le Reve to run well (and probably be placed) – but would be more fearful of Granddads Horse, if he did spring back to life.

0.5pt win Shangani 5/1

3:45

This looks a pretty open race to me and I think it’s worth taking a chance on a couple of the longer priced runners…

The first of those is Last Supper.

Having initially appeared to be very moderate, the fitting of a hood has transformed her.

It was used for the first time at the beginning of last season - and she promptly bolted up at Perth, at odds of 80/1 !

She has subsequently gone on to show that was no flash in the pan, maintaining a much higher level of form on both the flat and over jumps.

She has run twice so far this season. Performing with credit in a mares listed event at Wetherby on her seasonal debut; and then running even better to finish fourth in a hot handicap at Aintree.

The Aintree run really caught the eye, with her having everything other than short priced favourite, Virgilio in trouble, up the home straight.

She eventually faded to finish fourth that day – but I think she was the second best animal in the race.

She steps back in trip today, which I think will help her – and has a 3lb claimer in the saddle, which is a bonus.

My main concern with her is the ground – but if she goes on it, I think she’s the one to beat.

The other one I want on side is Mr Fitzroy.

He will have no issue with the ground – but does have a very poor run last time out, to overcome.

In fairness, it was so poor, I am inclined to think that something went wrong – and the application of a tongue tie today, seems to back up that theory.
As a rule I don’t like to follow horses who have breathing issues, but I’m prepared to make an exception if the odds are big enough !

Certainly on his previous second to Baron Alco at Fontwell (when  a slip on the home turn stopped him from getting even closer to the winner), Mr Fitzroy has every chance in todays contest.

Hopefully one of them will come good, in a race which looks there for the taking…

0.25pt win Last Supper 10/1

0.125pt win Mr Fitzroy 16/1

The Lanzarote hurdle at 2:35, is the high light of the Kempton card - but good luck if you choose to take in on !

Choosing between Bivouac, Ibis Du Rheu, Wrestern Warrior and Yala Enki, looks almost impossible – though I’ll be a little surprised if the winner comes from outside that quartet.

Instinctively, I am drawn to Ibis Du Rheu – but there is no margin in a price of 9/2.

The only other race of interest on the Kempton card, is the handicap chase at 12:50.

However, it again looks like the market has this one right, with the most likely winner, Comeonginger at the head.

The biggest issue for him is the presence of Balgarry.

Both horses like to lead – and I suspect that Balgarry will win that particular battle !

It may not be an issue for Comeonginger as he will likely get a nice lead in the race – but I still don’t think it is ideal.

My feeling is that Comeonginger will run down Balgarry up the home straight – but odds of 2/1 and the possibility of a tactical race, make it one to watch…

Chepstow

1:45

I have to be honest, I missed a trick with the Welsh National…

Back at the beginning of December, after a good run in the London Marathon, I considered tipping Mountainous.

He was 25/1 at the time – and whilst his profile isn’t ideal, I figured him worth a risk.

However, I decided to wait a few days – and whilst I waited, he was tipped up elsewhere !

The price went – and it has continued to contract.

He was 8/1 this morning – which is just too short.

I’m not saying he can’t win – he can – but so too can about a dozen others…
Unsurprisingly, most of the potential winners are at the head of the betting – but one horse who I think the market has under-estimated, is Firebird Flyer…

He will relish todays trip and ground – and with a surfeit of pace, could also have the race run to suit (he likes to be held up).

He’s not badly handicapped either. He would have to win off a career high mark – but he’s hacked up from a rating just 2lb lower, so that should be quite possible.

He’s also a good age, at 9. It’s true that most recent Welsh National winners have been a little younger – but the younger generation have limited representation this year.

Firebird Flyer should be just about at his prime – more than can be said for some of his rivals.

In short, with ticks in many of the boxes, he has a very good chance – in a very open race.

0.125pt EW Firebird Flyer 28/1

The previous race on the card (1:10), was won 12 months ago by Awaywiththegreys.

We were on him that day (as I’m sure many of you will remember !), and whilst I wouldn’t completely rule out a repeat victory, it would take an act of faith to support him today.

He showed very little last time out – and whilst he may well come on for that run, significant improvement will be required.

I might be more inclined to opt for another old friend, in Moorlands Mist.

He finished second in the same race that Awaywithegreys ran in – but has been raised 6lb for his efforts. That will make things tricky for him today.

In truth both of them might find the concession of weight and years to Sykes, a bit beyond them…

I thought for quite some time, about taking a risk on Racing Pulse in the novice handicap chase at 2:55.

He has shown nothing in 2 runs over fences for Rebecca Curtis this season – but was a very useful novice hurdler, the season before last.

The step up in trip today, looks an interesting move – plus Curtis’s stable is now in much better form.
I am also intrigued to see her utilising the services of Johnny Burke.

She’s has had a lot of success bringing over Paul Townend to ride – and I suspect that Burke will be after a winner this afternoon.
The thing that puts me off Racing Pulse, is the very heavy ground – I’m just not convinced that is what he wants.

It is also quite a trappy race.

He was 12/1 last night and worth a risk at that price. 8/1 this morning and I’m force to take a watching brief…

I think the right horse heads the market in the handicap chase at 3:25 – but I’m not remotely interested in backing Otago Trail at 13/8…

I can only imagine what the ground will be like by this point - and the race could end up a complete lottery.

In fairness, Otago Trail should go in desperate conditions – but he also has a lot of weight to lug round.

Rouge et Blanc has been there before and got the T-shirt.

He’s getting a bit old now – and is not particularly well handicapped – but at 14/1, he might still be a bit of value…

Punchestown

I Knew Well is the horse that interests me, in the handicap chase at 1:00 – so much so, that I considered tipping him !

The trouble is, he’s a JP horse, making his debut in a handicap, over a longer trip than he’s been running over in novice events.

There’s a lot guess work involved and whilst I suspect he could be different class to his rivals – I would be guessing.

Of course, his connections will have a much better idea on things.
He’s 4/1 now, which I think is reasonable.

However, I would be more inclined to wait and watch the market.

If he goes off at 3/1 or less, I think he will take a lot of beating…

The following race on the card (1:35) is just as interesting…

As a few of your may recall, I picked out Court Frontier as one to be interested in, when he ran over the Christmas period.

He got a questionable ride that day, from his inexperienced jockey and ended up finishing third.

I’m sure connections will be out to make amends today – but despite the field size, this is a trappy race.

Unic De Bersy and Barely Legal have both got chances – but the one I’m most interested in is Baie Des Iles.

He ran some very promising races over hurdles last season – and the booking of Derek O Connor for his chasing debut in Ireland, catches the eye.

He can currently be backed at 7/1 – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift.

I think he might be worth a small play to upset the favourite…

Finally, the last race on the card, sees Diamond King trying to win his first race for Gordon Elliot.

We were on him last time when he ran a good second in a very hot handicap at Fairyhouse.
I suspect he will go one better today – but odds of 6/4 on very heavy ground, over a trip that will stretch him, make limited appeal…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.