Daily write-up - Jan 12th

The weather has claimed Fakenham, leaving Ludlow as the sole NH meeting today…

There is just the one tip on the day, and despite it being in a relatively poor contest, I was quite keen to issue it early.

It makes my life easier if I can issue tips early, as it means that I can produce the write-up knowing what I’ve tipped.

I sent the tip out just after 8:30 – and immediately the price was crushed on BF.

The horse was available at 6.8 on BF when I issued – but within seconds, was trading at 6.2.

Needless to say, the bookmakers reacted:

- Sky and VC cut it within a minute.

- SB and Coral cut it within 2 minutes.

- Tote, BF, L – and Sky again, cut it within 3 minutes.

I’ll be amazed if more than a handful of you got 6/1 – and not many more 11/2 – and that’s simply not on.

I pride myself on issuing tips at achievable prices - but someone (possibly more than 1), is stopping this from happening and therefore jeopardising the service.

I’ve raised the issue numerous times before - and asked for it to stop.

Clearly, my request has had no effect, so I’m now going to take action.

From tomorrow onwards, I will have 2 distribution lists – and I will stagger the issuing of tips.

Initially I will just put a handful of the guys that I know and trust on the first distribution list and they will get the tips 5 minutes before everyone else.

Each day, I will move a couple more people to the first distribution list

I will monitor BF every time I send out a tip.

If a price crash occurs, I will have a good idea of who has caused it.

Whoever is doing it will not be allowed on the service next season (and obviously will continue to receive tips late (very late !) for the remainder of this season).

I can’t tell you how disappointed I am to having to be taking such action.

Not just because it will waste an extra 10 mins of my time, for every tip I issue (and make errors more likely) - but also because I desperately want to create a TVB community, where everyone pulls together for the greater good.

Such is life, I guess….

If anyone feels they have a good case for being on the first distribution list, then feel free to get in touch; similarly, if anyone wants to own up to taking below the odds on BF – and promises not to continue doing so, then it’s not too late to sort things out…

Anyway, on to the rationale for todays tip – and some other very brief thoughts !!

Ludlow

Fishing Bridge is a horse who has been on my radar for quite some time now…

He was first a ‘mention’ at the beginning of last season, when he made his chasing debut at Ludlow.

He jumped poorly that day, but still showed he had enough ability to remain interested in.

Next time out however, he fell – and his chasing career was put on hold…

He was returned to hurdles for his following run  – and in a first time visor, won well in heavy ground at Ffos Las.

That was in a better contest than todays – and off a pound higher mark, so from a handicapping perspective, there is nothing to stop him from winning today.

Since that win, he has run 6 times and not really featured.

However those runs have generally been in better quality races (class 3) and off higher handicap marks.

In the last of them at Ffos Las, he actually looked as if he might be involved in the finish, when making a move up the home straight.

He weakened out of things from the second last, but as that was only his second run of the season, it may still have been needed.

I would expect him to be cherry ripe today; and off a good mark in a winnable race –and with perfect conditions, I think he should go very close.

Non of his opponents fill me unduly with dread…

Market  Option and Rainbow Haze are the obvious ones to beat – but neither are world beaters.

I’ll also be interested to see how Shy John gets on over hurdles. I tipped him over fences on his penultimate run (when he fell, behind Aachen).

In summary, this looks a winnable race – and I’m optimistic that Fishing Bridge will be up to winning it !

0.375pt win Fishing Bridge 6/1

There is little else to get excited about on the Ludlow card…

The handicap chase at 2:00 looks most likely to go to one of the top 2: Take the Mick or Still Believing.

The former is an even money shot – which means the Still Believing is the more attractive betting prospect, at 10/3…

The only other race worth a mention, is the novice chase at 3:00.

In truth, this doesn’t really warrant a mention as a contest - but it will still be good to see potential top notcher, Garde La Victoire, strutting his stuff.

We shouldn’t learn anything about him today, as I would expect him to have no issue conceding 10lb to some inferior opponents.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.