Sunday 10 January 2016

Daily write-up - Jan 10th

Once again, we are back to just a single meeting today: this time at Fairyhouse…

It is a quiet time of the year regardless - but the weather is really wreaking havoc with the fixture list…
The meeting scheduled for Ayr tomorrow, was lost this morning, meaning that we will have a second blank day in a week.

As I’ve said before, there is nothing we can do about it - this period will pass…

In truth, todays meeting at Fairyhouse is not really one to get overly excited about.

The main race of the day, is the Dan Moore memorial chase at 2:20.

This is a strange one, in so much as it’s a top class handicap chase run over 2 miles (approximately) – you don’t get many of those in Ireland…
Consequently you don’t get many horses suited by the distance - so there is a chance you can make hay, if you have the right horse…
I think Nearly Nama’d is the right horse today.
He won a similar race over course and distance in November.
He was sent off at 40/1 that day – but there seemed no fluke about his victory.
He led from half way and held off Minella Four, who subsequently went on and won the Paddy Power chase over Christmas.
He’s been handed a 7lb weight rise for the win – but that doesn’t look overly punitive.
Particularly as Barry Geraghty replaces Roger Laughran in the saddle (which has to be worth at least a  couple of pounds).
It also seems quite significant that Geraghty will be riding off a near minimum weight.
The opposition look generally exposed – and whilst there are some quite useful types up against him, there is nothing to be overly fearful of.
If we could get 5/1 properly (it’s been available in a place or two), he would be an official tip. However I would have to settle at 4/1 and that seems a tad short.
It’s a close call tho – and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off having a play on him…

There’s not much else of interest on the card…

In the preceding handicap hurdle I might take a small chance on Another Challenge – but mainly because of the trainer.
The horse was off the course for 18 months prior to a couple of recent runs.
He’s not shown much in either – but he should now be close to full fitness.
He’s handicapped to just about win, if back to his best – but you couldn’t be sure that was the case.
He can be backed at 14/1 now – though I suspect that price will get quite a bit shorter if connections think he is ready to do himself justice.

There is an interesting looking novice chase at 3:20.
A chance can be given to at least 5 of the runners – but I am most drawn to The Winkler.
He never really lived up to expectations over hurdles – but he’s looked better over fences.
4 consecutive second places, suggest his attitude might not be as you would want – but I don’t think that’s the case.
I just think he’s run in to 4 better horses on the day.
That might happen again today – but I suspect he will give you a good run for your money and might even be worth considering EW at the 5/1 available…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

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