Daily write-up - Jan 29th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Doncaster and Huntingdon.

And for the second day on the trot, the weather hasn’t messed things up.

There weren’t even any inspections – what are things coming to ?!

More than that, both of todays meetings will be run on relatively good ground.
It’s the first time in weeks that horses have had the opportunity to race in conditions that aren’t desperate, so it’s not too suspiring that Doncaster in particular, has attracted bumper fields.

Despite the number of runners, I was pretty sure I would be able to find a tip or two – and I kind of did.

However, come the points where I was able to tip, the prices either weren’t quite there – or in the case of my main fancy for the day, I chose to delay issuing, and the price subsequently crashed.

It really is a very difficult balance: getting the tips out, whilst ensuring people have a reasonable chance of getting on.

Anyway, what’s done is done.

You’ll still got my thoughts to work with – and I’m sure there will be plenty of market movements before the off.

Opportunities will doubtless present themselves, for those of you who want to seek them out !

Doncaster

He was probably always too risky to tip – but I’m still quite keen on Coozan George, in the opener…

The fact he has never jumped a fence in public, is part of the risk: the other part is that he is taking on 15 rivals – many of whom are similarly unexposed.
However, I some how doubt that many of them will be as well handicapped as him – and I do very much like his trainer in these kind of races (Malcolm Jefferson).

Certainly I think that the more exposed horses in the race don’t set too demanding a standard – the main danger is therefore likely to be The Mumper.

I guess there is a price where Coozan George could have become a tip – though I would always feel a little uncomfortable, because it is mainly guess work.

In truth, 7/1 is probably quite fair – anything bigger would be a bonus…

It is the 2:00 race in which I planned to issue a tip – and the horse in question, was Globalisation…

He won well on his seasonal/fencing debut at the beginning of November, before disappointing later in the month, at Newbury.

However, that was in a better race than todays – and he was sent off a relatively well fancied 8/1 shot.

He ran no sort of race that day – but it took place at a time, when the Rebecca Curtis stable was badly out of form.

I would expect him to bounce back to form today – and in truth, there doesn’t look an awful lot to beat in todays race.

I like that Barry Geraghty is taking the ride – and that Rebecca Curtis seems to have saved him for the better ground.

He was 9/1 this morning (even touched 10/1), which was absolutely fine.
I would have been happy with 8/1 and would have considered 7/1.

However he is now just 5/1 – and even with a non runner in the race, that seems tight.

Ofcourse it won’t stop him from winning, if he is back to form – but I have to try and maintain a ‘value’ edge and I think the value is minimal at that price.

There are 3 horses running in the 2:30, which I’ve already tipped this season – and choosing between them isn’t easy…

Non of the 3 won when I tipped them – though both Night in Milan and Echo Springs briefly looked like they might.

The former has gone on to run a good race at Musselburgh; whilst the latter has disappointed at Kelso.

Over todays trip and on decent ground, I would prefer Night in Milan, of the pair…

Sebastian Beach is the other horse I have previously tipped - but he was just very disappointing.

You would have to ignore that run, if you were going to support him today – and the fact that Jonjo has barely had a runner in weeks, would make supporting him a double act of faith.

I suspect the market will advise on his chances…

Ignoring those 3, it still looks a tough race to call: with favourite, Chantara Rose, the obvious one to beat; but Wolf Shield, the last ever runner for George Moore, the potential fly in the ointment…

If Vintage Vinnie gets an uncontested lead – and manages to get into a good rhythm, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cause a minor shock in the novice chase at 3:05.

He has disappointed the last twice, but both runs were at Cheltenham and he didn’t seem able to handle the undulations.

I think he will be much more at home on the relatively flat Doncaster track – and I can see him being tough to pass.

That said, he faces 3 talented rivals, so there isn’t a lot of margin in a price of 4/1…

Huntingdon

The Clock Leary is the one that interests me most in the handicap chase at 2:10 – but this is a tricky race to call…

He disappointed on his first two runs this season – but ran much better last time, when blinkers were fitted.

However, he also ran quite freely - and if he does that again, he might struggle to get home, over this slightly longer trip.
In fairness, he is less likely to be as lit up, second time in head gear – and the presence of Aidan Coleman in the saddle could also help.

As could Artiface Sivola - as he could put some pace to the race, which The Clock Leary might be able to settle behind.

If that happens, I think he will take the beating – but there are plenty of ‘ifs’ involved, considering a price of 5/1.

Aside from him, then nothing really stands out – but equally, nothing can be safely dismissed.

On balance, just a bit too tricky to call with confidence…

The other race of interest on the Huntingdon card, is the Pertemps Qualifier, off at 2:40.

However, this is a race where I am struggling to form a strong opinion…

The market is suggesting that Singlefarmpayment, Amiral Collonges or Kerisper are the most likely winners – and it is probably right.
I could make a case for So Fine (back on better ground) and Taj Badalandabad (better for his comeback run – and with cheek pieces replacing the visor) – but I have a feeling they aren’t going to be quite up to it.

My gut feeling is that Kerisper is the most likely winner – but I try to keep tipping based on gut feeling, to an absolute minimum !!

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.