Daily write-up - Nov 3rd

There’s just the one NH meeting this afternoon – at Exeter…

But before I get on to that, a few words on yesterday…

Obviously there were no tips because I didn’t fancy anything sufficiently to tip it – however there were a lot of mentions, and all of them got beaten…

Now obviously that can’t be considered a good thing – though I am hoping that nobody (even the Info guys) got their fingers too burnt..

Clearly, I can’t have it all ways: I push the write-up as a additional source of potential profit, so when a day like yesterday occurs, I need acknowledge that it could have been the source of potential loss.

All I would say, is that I always push the write-ups – not the mentions.

Yesterday, the mentions included horses that would never have been bets – as well as some that might have been.

In order to get context for the mentions, it is imperative that you take the time to read the write-up – and view it in conjunction with the market, prevailing conditions etc.

If I were to take a positive spin on the write-up, I would say that I was spot on with regard to Kempton being too much of a jumping test for both Parish Business and Adam Du Breteau; whilst Silviniaco Conti did need the run and was beaten by the horse most likely to win the race (Brother Tedd).

Smad Place surprised me, as he was clearly more forward than I expected – but that was probably the only thing I got completely wrong at Kempton.

At Ludlow, both Noche de Reyes and Here’s Herbie ran good races – they just bumped into one better on the day (which I thought they might).
Whilst Vent Nivernais probably ran the kind of race I expected – and would likely have traded a fair bit lower in running, if it had been possible to see what was going on !

Chankillo was probably just disappointing – though again it is difficult to say for sure as it was impossible to see much of the race.

Looked at in those terms, my reading of things wasn’t too bad.

And whilst I’m not after any credit – I do think the day provided a worthwhile lesson, in terms of what the write-up/mentions, can/can’t provide…

Anyway, on to today…

I’ve ended up with three tips across two races…

With regard to the price crash on Big Society, then as I said on the forum, it’s impossible to be sure of the cause…

Maybe it was us – but I would hope that a 0.25pt tip on a horse in a competitive 14 runner race, wouldn’t cause that kind of carnage.

If it has (I will need to monitor similar situations over the next couple of weeks), then I am likely to be left with no option other than to tip late, in the relatively small mid week races (which I will often choose to do, regardless).

Here’s the rationale behind todays tips…

Exeter

2:20

The big race of the day is the Halden Gold cup.

Whilst there are 5 runners in the race, I think it can be viewed as a 4 horse race (coupling Third Intention and Dunraven Storm).

Looked at in those terms, the bookies makes it is pretty even heat – but I’m prepared to take a view on it…

Vibrato Valtat has been put up by pricewise, but I would be willing to take him on.

In truth, he shouldn’t be able to beat Dunravan Storm based on a couple of runs early last season – and I don’t think he’s as good a horse as Gods Own (they will run off the same weight this afternoon).

Furthermore, the Nichols horses have generally looked like they would improve for a run (and Vibrato has no great record fresh).

The next one I would want to oppose is Sire De Grugy.
Now don’t get me wrong, I think a peak form Sire would win this off a mark of 167 – I just don’t think we will see a peak form Sire today.

Firstly, it is the opening run of what should be a long campaign – and secondly, he’s not getting any younger (will be 10 in a couple of months).

We are therefore left with 2: Gods Own and the Third Intention/Dunraven Storm combo…

Unfortunately this is where it gets tricky, because of the rain – and tactics…

Both Gods Own and Dunraven Storm want good ground – so rain will not be a positive for either of them (and could well see them drift).

In that scenario, Third Intention should be the bet – particularly as I think he will get the run of the race.

My expectation is that Third Intention will try to bully the race – with Dunraven Storm following him – and the others playing cat and mouse at the back.

If Daryl Jacobs gets his fractions right, Third Intention may be able to quicken round the home turn – putting pressure on the jumping of Dunraven Storm – and catching out the other 3.

In that scenario I can see him nicking the race…

The trouble is, if the rain doesn’t come – or Jacobs gets his fractions wrong - the others will likely quicken past him up the home straight…

In that scenario, I’m hoping Dunraven Storm will be the main beneficiary.

There is actually a chance that he will lead (which would be no bad thing for him, as it would give him more chance to get his jumping organised).

Regardless however, I think he is just about the best handicapped horse in the race-  so from that perspective, he must have a good chance.

Certainly, I don’t believe he is almost a stone inferior to Vibrato (even if that one was cherry ripe).

In short, I want to be with the two horses who have fitness on their side – against the 3 potentially better animals, who may well have half an eye on bigger prizes later in the season.

0.25pt win Dunraven Storm 6/1

0.25pt win Third Intention 9/1

3:20

Big Society is a horse quite close to my heart.

He was a winning tip at Newcastle, a couple of seasons ago, when he dotted up in a handicap hurdle.
He was backed that day as well – in from 10/1 early to 7/2 at the off – and absolutely hacked up.

He only ran once more over hurdles before switching his attention back to fences (he had tried them twice earlier in his career – but didn’t manage to complete).

He’s a big horse, always likely to be seen to best effect over fences – and yet he hasn’t really progressed over them as I would have expected.

In fact, all of his runs since he returned to the bigger obstacles have been much of a muchness.

His first run got him a rating of 123 – and he’s run virtually to that level on most of his subsequent runs.

So why do I think things might be different today ?

The main reason for my interest is that he was sold over the summer and has switched stables from Tom George to Harry Whittington.

Now I’m a big fan of George, so I don’t see leaving his stable as a positive – however, I am also a big fan of Whittington.

He’s one of the ‘new kids’ trying to make his mark on the block: think Harry Fry, Dan Skelton, Charlie Longson etc. He’s a couple of years behind them – but that’s clearly where he is aiming.

And he seems to aim very accurately – as 3 winners from his last 5 runners, demonstrates.

One of the aces he keeps up his sleeve, is conditional jockey Paul O’Brien.

He’s tremendous value for his 7lb claim – and you should really be interested in any horse that he is riding.

The fact that Whittington fits blinkers to Big Society for his stable debut, tells me that he means business.

In simple terms, this is all about how much Whittington – and O’Brien – are going to be able to improve Big Society.

On last seasons form, I would expect him to finish mid pack. However, if a new training regime and blinkers can eak out a few pounds worth of improvement – plus a few more from the saddle, he just might be able to get his head home in front.

That’s the theory, anway…

0.25pt win Big Society 14/1

 

There are 5 other races on the card – but they are all best just watched…

The opening two novice hurdles will likely be won by horses who will go on to better things: whilst the last two handicap hurdles look like the kind best suited to your lucky pin !

There is a very decent novice chase off at 2:50.

My feeling last night was that the market had it about right – so I suspect that the morning money for Native River is significant (it suggests that Southfield Vic will come on for the run).

Without knowledge on the fitness of the runners making their debuts, it is an impossible race to have a strong view on.
Suffice to say, I will be watching all of the runners closely, with an eye to the future…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead.

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Exeter 3:20 Big Society 0.25pt win 14/1

 

Late

 

Exeter 2:20 Dunraven Storm 0.25pt win 6/1

Exeter 2:20 Third Intention 0.25pt win 9/1

 

Mentions

 

None