Daily write-up - Nov 19th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Market Rasen and Wincanton in the UK – and Thurles in Ireland.

Whilst it is true that the quality of the racing is improving as the week progresses – it is only happening slowly…

All 3 cards this afternoon can be described as ‘reasonable ‘ - but not much more than that.

Trying to find an angle isn’t easy – and when you do, there’s an air of inevitability that the market will correct before you have time to issue.

Tipping mid week really isn’t easy…

That said, I’ve found a couple – and whilst one comes with risks – and I’m not overly happy about the price of the other – if we want any tips mid-week, compromises will have to be made…

I’m sure a few of you are wondering why I am prepared to tip Cloudy Bob today, when I wouldn’t tip Big Society yesterday – bearing in mind that both of them halved in price overnight.

Simply, Cloudy Bob is a much more solid selection. His chance is clear in the form book – and he ran a perfectly respectable race last time.

If he doesn’t win, he should go very close.

Big Society was much more speculative. It required creativity to come up with him – and whilst I’m more than happy to be creative, you need compensation in the odds on offer.

Both horses sat in the morning, at roughly the prices I expected them to be.

I felt one could win (Big Society): whilst I feel the other should win (Cloudy Bob).

Consequently, I’m prepared to take a ‘fair’ price on one  - but wasn’t on the other…

Todays other tip is potentially very speculative - but I think I’ve seen something – and I can make a case via the form book.

The question is how will the price stand up to being attacked by us – and how many account closures it will result in (particularly if it does win).

Time will tell, I guess…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Market Rasen

1:30

I think Cloudy Bob has a very strong chance in this race…

He won a very similar contest, over course and distance, on soft ground, last November.

That win was achieved from a mark of 121 – and today he runs from a mark of 119.

From a handicapping perspective, he has a very good chance.
Flowing that win, he was rasied to a mark of 128 – but that proved a bit too much for him.

He gradually slid back down the weights throughout last season (as is often the case) but the closest he came to following up that success, was a second to Comeonginger at Kempton (same trip, same ground, another right handed course).

Cloudy Bobs preferences seem quite clear – and he get s them today.

He is also back on a mark which he can win from – and should be in peak condition following a couple of runs this season.

Simply, he is as solid a selection as you will get…

Ofcourse, that doesn’t mean he will win (though it should mean he will run well) – as there might be something with plenty in hand of it’s mark, running in the race.

However, I can’t see many where that could be the case.

Top weight Russborough is an obvious danger, for Venetia. Her horses tend to keep on improving…

Rio Milan is also a danger, as conditions should suit him well. However, he is off a career high mark - and his stable isn’t in the best of form.

Up for an Oscar is potentially the biggest danger of all - on his debut for Peter Bown.

He could be very well handicapped – and I would be fearful of him if he was strong in the market.

All this said, with a straight bat, I think Cloudy Bob is the most likely winner – and whilst I would have liked a point or two bigger, realistically, 4/1 is a fair enough price.

0.5pt win Cloudy Bob 4/1

I suspect that the opening race on the card will turn out to be a decent affair (so worth watching).

I’ve no idea what will win it – but if I was going to take a stab, I would side with Oldgrangewood, on his debut for the Skeltons…

In the following race on the card (1:00), the market expects Venetia Uhlan Bute to follow up its Bangor win of last week, under a 7lb penalty – and I’m not sure I would want to argue with that.

Second fav, St Johns Point, could make things tough for him – but its difficult to see an angle into the race.

The handicap hurdle at 2:05 looks far more open – but not easy to call.

I can understand why Clondaw Banker is favourite - but I would be prepared to take him on at under 2/1 – the problem is with what…

Work in Progress and Handiwork both have chances – whilst Brave Sparticus is well weighted over hurdles, compared to his chase mark.
All this said, I might be more inclined to take a small chance on Sky Khan – maybe EW.

He ran well at the Cheltenham October meeting – and Lucinda Russell continues to have her string in good form.
I think he offer some value, at the general 14/1.

Thurles

2:30

I think there is a chance that Repeater could be very interesting in this..

A former high class flat horse, he seemed in decline during the 2014 flat season and was sold at the end of it, for £20K.

He began his hurdling career in a maiden hurdle at Navan, at the start of this year – but didn’t show very much.

In truth it was a similar story in 3 more runs in maiden hurdles - and a couple of runs in flat handicaps.

However, he then ran in a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out – and things were a little different.

Wearing a hood for the first time, he was backed into 12/1 at the off (quite a short price for a horse who had shown nothing previously).
However, he certainly showed something that day – and was still pulling as he took up the running, approaching the second last.

However, a mistake there and his effort was over, almost as quickly as it had begun.

Has been dropped 2lb for that run however – and maybe more importantly cut back half a mile in trip.

The really crazy thing is that thee horse gets to run off mark of 86 over hurdles today – when he was rated 109 in him prime on the flat.

That was after he had finished third in the group 2 Doncaster cup !

Now clearly he’s not the same horse now (he would be border line champion hurdle class if he was !) – but I’m not sure he has regressed quite as much as his official rating implies…

Obviously he’s a risky one – and there are at least a couple in the race that I’m fearful of.
However, if he retains just a slither of his former ability (and he’s only 6 – so he shouldn’t really be in terminal decline), then there is just a chance he could make a mockery of today race (assuming connections managed to get their money down before we did !!)

0.25pt win Repeater 16/1

The bookies make the opener on the card a mach between Moyle Park and Ttebbob -and they might be right…

However, there are question marks over both and I might be more inclined to side with Net Decosse, for the Gigginstown/Willie Mullins combination.

He is risky as well – but at least you get a price for those risks (8/1).

In the big race on the card, Sir Des Champs should really prove himself different class.

True, he’s been off the track for 18 months and true, todays trip will be a minimum for him – but all the same, if he is anything like the horse he used to be, he should comfortable take care of todays rivals.
However, even if he isn’t the horse he used to be, its a tough race to call – with Lyreen Legend also coming back after a long absence - and both Mala Beach and Rubi Light making their seasonal debuts…

I did, very briefly, consider tipping Maggio EW – as I think he will run his race.
However, if any of the 4 previously mentioned are even close to their best, Maggio should be outclassed.

The bet would therefore be based on them all under performing – and I’m not comfortable with that logic.

Wincanton

In the opener on the card, I would have tipped I’m in Charge – if the ground had been decent.

He has run a couple of nice races over hurdles recently – and I’m sure he can strike off his current mark over fences – but he has a well documented preference for quick.
I guess we don’t know exactly how the Wincanton ground will be riding – so he might just get away with it.
However, as he is running the first race on the card, it would be an educated gamble.
If it looks OK as they gallop down, you could may be take a risk – but he can’t be an official tip.

The only other the race on the card that I looked at, was the handicap hurdle at 1:50.

I thought Miles to Memphis looked the most likely winner of this – but that was before the apparent plunge on the Sheena West horses (see Nicks post, in the forum)

This said, I could still have been tempted by one – but only in a particular set of circumstances…

I thought Byron Blue ran very well last time out in a race he had no chance in.
I could see him running well again today – but only if he got an uncontested lead.
Unfortunately, Benbecula is another in the race who likes to lead – so there could be a battle.

If Benbecual was withdrawn pre-race (and he might be, if it is very soft), Byron Blue could be interesting (as a back to lay in running, at very least).

With Benbecula in the race – and the potential for plots – I think it is best left alone.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.