Daily write-up - Nov 27th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Musselburgh.

Waiting for tips is a bit like waiting for a bus…

Non for days – then a load come at once !

Alas, there is nothing I can do about it.

The horses/races are either there to be tipped in – or they aren’t.

It’s all out of my control.

Suffice to say, there are plenty of races I can tip in today – and so I’ve tipped in a few of them.

With time tight, I’ll keep the pre-amble short – and get straight into the detail.

Newbury

2:05

I’m sure a few of you will recall that I was quite keen on L’Unique when she made her chasing debut at Wincanton earlier this month.

However, she had a horrible time that day…

Something spooked her going to the fifth fence and she tried to duck out.

She then had a horse fall immediately in front of her on the second circuit.

In truth, she did well to get round and I thought that might be the last time we saw her over fences – but that’s not the case…

Clearly, her trainer, Alan King, still feels the mare can make a mark over the big obstacles - and if he’s right, I think she could be capable of springing a bit of a surprise today…

Certainly, the conditions of this race favour her, based on her hurdles form.

She is receiving weight – up to a stone – from horses who she would be running against on much less favourable terms over the smaller obstacles.
Ofcourse chase form and hurdles form aren’t completely interchangeable – but it’s still nice to know that she has the latent ability to just about win this, if she does jump round OK.
And I think there is a much better chance of her jumping round Newbury than there was of her jumping round Wincanton.
Newbury is a big open track – and she should get the time and space she needs, to get over her obstacles.

Ocourse, she could get round safely but be too ponderous – and that is a risk.

However, I think it is a risk worth taking at the prices..

In terms of her opponents, then I would expect Maximiser to make a bold show up front – he could be quite capable of jumping his rivals into submission.

That said, I suspect he will lack a change of gear if anything is close enough to strike, jumping the last.
Hopefully Wayne Hutchinson will be able to get L’Unique into that position – because if he does, I think she has the required class to win.

0.25pt win L’Unique 16/1

2:40

I believe that Monetaire has perfect conditions today and I could be really keen on him.

However, there are a couple of things that slightly temper my enthusiasm: the patchy form of the David Pipe yard – and the presence of Upepito…

Ignoring those, then I think the case for Monetaire is quite compelling…

He finished second in last seasons festival plate, off a mark just two pound lower than he runs off today.
That in itself would give him a strong chance in todays race – but he was very unlucky not to have won that race.
Firstly, he got a way to a poor start – and secondly he wouldn’t have been ideally suited by the relatively quick ground.

As a piece of form, I think it’s the best in the race – the fact that it doesn’t flatter Monetaire, makes him of strong interest.

I also like the fact that he is coming into this race, in peak condition, following a run in the Paddy Power Gold cup; and the fact that he won at this meeting 12 months ago (so he clearly has no issue with the course).

Todays trip and ground will be perfect for him – in short, he is a very strong contender…

As I said, I can only see 2 issues with his case:

The first is stable form; and the second is Upepito.

He could be a really well handicapped horse – and it will be frustrating if that is the case.

I might save my stake on him – but not for official purposes.

Others in the race that I could see running well, include Royal Regatta and Little Jon – plus I’m not sure Kings Lad should be quite the price he is.
That said, I wouldn’t put any of those above Upepeito – and I’m hoping he’ll only be capable of chasing home Monetaire.

0.375pt win Monetaire 7/1

I really wanted to tip in the handicap chase at 12:55 – but I couldn’t figure out what !

I was originally drawn to Drumshambo, as he is spectacularly well handicapped.

However, he was very well handicapped for most of last season.

He might spark back to life today, as he will be running fresh – and over a shorter trip than he competed over last season.
But in truth, I’m not sure he will…

The other one who could take the race part, is the favourite, Mon Successeur.
He ran a big race at Wetherby on his debut for Paul Nicholls – and looked like he should progress for that.
However, he was a little disappointing next time out over hurdle at Cheltenham.

If he can build on the Wetherby form, he is probably the one to beat – but there are question makers over him…

The safest bet in the race, is Bincombe.
He ran a good race on his seasonal debut in a hotter contest than this – and has been dropped 3lb for it !

He has also got a decent conditional on his back, claiming 8lb.
I think it will be hard to keep him out of the frame – and at 6/1, he looks an EW bet to nothing.
However, for win purposes, he just might be vulnerable.

In truth, I couldn’t confidently put a line through Colins Brother, Vision Des Champ or Rouge et Blanc.
So reluctantly, I had to pass on the race…

I also had to pass on the handicap hurdle at 1:30.

In truth, that was a little easier to do – once the spectacular price on Gevrey Chambertain went (he was 33/1 last night).

I have to admit that he’s a speculative one – and whilst I could argue a case for him (blinkers back on, soft ground, flat track), I suspect connections would like a few more pounds of his rating before they really go for it.
If he is very well blacked (close to single figures), you should probably take the hint  -but otherwise, there are plenty of progressive sorts who are likely to have too much foot for him.

Forthefunofit is the other one I could have been interested in – but there is also quite a lot of guesswork involved with him – and the price isn’t as great.

Doncaster

12:15

This race reminds me very much of the handicap hurdle at Ludlow on Monday, in which I tipped Looks Like Power.

I felt I’d found one that day, which had slipped under the radar (and I had) – but I was fearful of a more obvious one (Kublai).

For Looks like Power, read Echo Springs – and for Kublai, read Night in Milan…

Post race on Monday, I said I wish I had spilt my stakes between the two of them – so that is precisely what I’ve done this afternoon.

The case for Echo Springs is based around a couple of eye-catching runs in much better company, at Aintree.

On the back of those, he gets to run in a handicap today off a very workable looking mark of 115.

I would hope he could do damage off that mark – and the booking of Brian Hughes just adds to his case.

However, if he is going to win today, he’s going to have to overcome a horse who is spectacularly well handicapped and running in ideal conditions.
That horse is Night in Milan – who is a Doncaster specialist and, as recently as January, ran a mighty race over course and distance, when finishing third in the Skybet chase off a mark of 146.
He runs off a mark of 120 today – so is clearly thrown in.

The only issue is, today’s race is over hurdles - and all of his form is over fences…

As I said previously, form in the two disciplines isn’t interchangeable – however…

Night in Mila will get his perfect conditions today (3miles on good ground at Doncaster); he also gets blinkers reapplied and the amateur who has ridden him the last twice, is dispensed with and James Reveley brought back.
To be honest, this horse has lights flashing all over him !

I couldn’t ditch Echo Springs because I would never forgiven myself if he does win – but equally, I can’t call myself a form student and not tip Night in Milan…

Of the others, I would be a little fearful of Nautical Nitwit - and may save stakes on him – but I’ m very optimistic that won’t be necessary.

0.25pt win Night in Milan 6/1

0.25pt win Echo Springs 14/1

In the handicap chase at 1:20, I was half interested in Off the Ground – but my feelings on him are similar to those on Gevrey Chamebertain.
He is now reasonably handicapped - and will have perfect conditions – but I just think connections might want to get him very well handicapped before they strike.
Again, I would suggest you watch the market – and if he is well backed pre race, maybe get involved.
Again there are at least a couple in the race, who he should be able to follow home, if that is the plan for today…

The nearest I got to a fifth tip on the day, was Wild Bill in the handicap chase at 3:05.
He caught my eye travelling well, prior to falling at Ffos Las last time out – and gets to run off the same mark today.
I think he is capable of winning off that mark – and he might even be capable of winning today.

However, the presence of a couple of very dangerous looking rivals, tempers my enthusiasm..

Present Flight is the obvious one – and I think he will be a tough one to beat. However, I am actually more fearful of Silver Eagle…

He returns from a long absence but is very well handicapped based on hurdles form.

He comes from a stable in form – and my thinking was, if he was backed, he was one to be frightened off.

7/1 at 8:30 – he is 3/1 now.

I’m not prepared to take on that kind of confidence…

Finally, I can’t recall the last time I saw Derek O’Connor riding over here, outside one the big festivals.
He’s the top amateur in Ireland and his booking for a horse (even at Cheltenham) tends to be significant.
He is over today for 1 ride, for Jonjo in the bumper.

Now he may be attending a stag weekend in Leeds and wanting his flight paid for –I’ve no idea.

However if he has come over simply to ride the horse, he has to be one to be very interested in,

Walk Waterford is the beast in question – and it can now be backed at 5/1…

Musselburgh

2:55

Just the one race of interest at Musselburgh – and indeed, the one horse…

I put up Blades Lad in the forum a couple of weeks back, when he ran on the flat at Southwell.

That was because he had caught my eye ion no uncertain terms, when finishing second in a novice handicap chase at Sedgefield.

He was beaten that day, by Ashcroft Boy – but that horse has gone on and won again since and is now rated 18lb higher than when he just pipped Blades Lad.

In fairness, Blades Lad got a 6lb rise for his efforts that day – but I have a feeling that might not be anywhere near enough…

Certainly his run at Southwell showed the horse is at the top of his game – and his opponents today look decidedly moderate.

Ofcourse, he has to jump round; and I would prefer the rain to have stayed away (not that he won’t go on soft ground – just that I would be more confident on good) – but you can’t have everything.

Castlelawn and Muwalla look the ones to be fearful of – but neither look world beaters.

In short, I think Blades Lad is a very good bet.

0.5pt win Blades Lad 4/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.