There are 3 meetings today: at Chepstow and Warwick in
the UK- plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
Rain
is in the air – and that’s rarely a good thing !
I
was shocked to see how heavy the ground rode at Exeter yesterday – and I think
we need to tread carefully until we know conditions today.
Certainly, there will be a number of horses who were
declared to run on quick-ish ground – that could find themselves running on
ground that is anything but..
Just
before I go onto today, a quick plug for a thread on the forum, created by
Steve.
Steve is a new guy on the Info service, who is looking to
gather early thoughts and views from others on that service.
Now
I don’t know how many of the Info guys frequent the forum – and how many of
those would be prepared to express an opinion - but if you are with that service
and do have an early view on things, maybe you could contribute to Steves
thread…
So
to my thoughts on today…
Chepstow
When
I first looked at the runners for the novice handicap chase at 2:15, I thought
Imagine the Chat stuck out like a sore thumb !
An
unexposed JP horse with a progressive profile, I expected him to be almost
unbackable on his chasing debut.
My initial feeling was that the 3/1 was a surprisingly good price – but when I looked more closely at the race, my view changed a little..
My initial feeling was that the 3/1 was a surprisingly good price – but when I looked more closely at the race, my view changed a little..
In
short, this is a potentially competitive heat.
I
say ‘potentially’ because with them all being novices - most are very
inexperienced, so you can’t tell for sure how good they are. But certainly there
are two or three in the race who could be very useful.
Chief amongst them are Javert, Ozzy Thomas and Blanfords
Gunner.
Of
those 3, it is Ozzy Thomas I would be most interested in. He finished an
excellent fifth in a hot handicap hurdle at the recent Cheltenham
meeting.
Today will be the first time he has tackled fences, but
if he takes to them well – his hurdle form sets a decent standard.
That
said, it’s a standard that one of the other 3 could surpass – so, even at 6/1, I
don’t think he is worth tipping.
In
the 3:20 race, Sykes stands out.
He
dead heated in a decent handicap hurdle at the recent Aintree meeting and gets
to run off exactly the same mark today (it was a conditional riders race so he
doesn’t even get a penalty).
He
looked like a horse on a steep upward curve that day, so provided he has
recovered from his efforts, he will take a lot of beating…
His
most likely danger is the Paul Nichols trained The Eaglehaslanded – but the
betting reflects this.
At a
much bigger price, I will be keeping a close eye on Moorlands Mist.
He
looked like a horse really going places, 2 seasons ago – but it just hasn’t
happened.
He spent a year with Colin Tizzard and went over fences – but that was unsuccessful.
He is with Evan Williams now – and back over hurdles, off his last winning mark.
Instinct tells me that he should be watched today – and maybe backed next time – but you never know with Evan.
He spent a year with Colin Tizzard and went over fences – but that was unsuccessful.
He is with Evan Williams now – and back over hurdles, off his last winning mark.
Instinct tells me that he should be watched today – and maybe backed next time – but you never know with Evan.
I
might have a tiny play on him at 20/1, just in case…
The
final race of interest on the Chepstow card, is the handicap chase at
3:50.
Without exaggeration, Newton Thistle was probably the easiest winner I’ve ever seen when he won on his seasonal debut, least season - he absolutely bolted up.
Without exaggeration, Newton Thistle was probably the easiest winner I’ve ever seen when he won on his seasonal debut, least season - he absolutely bolted up.
The
trouble is, he is running off a mark 30lb higher today (quite
reasonably).
In
fairness, he did manage to follow up off a mark 19lb higher – so the task might
not be beyond him.
In
truth the betting will likely tell – but instinctively I feel he should be able
to defy a mark of 105 (particularly with Maurice Linehan, claiming
3lb).
Warwick
The
closest I got to a tip today, was probably in the 1:35…
I
like its shape, with three 12 year olds in the line-up; a horse making its
seasonal debut; another retuning to fences – and 2 that fell last time.
By a process of elimination, the winner should be Pure Poteen – and 7/2 isn’t a bad price…
By a process of elimination, the winner should be Pure Poteen – and 7/2 isn’t a bad price…
Certainly, I prefer his claims to those of the 2 other
seemingly progressive horses in the field; Conas Taoi and Free of
Charge.
Both of those fell last time – which is never a good thing – but more that that, they both looked beaten at the time, so I don’t think ether is particularly well handicapped.
Both of those fell last time – which is never a good thing – but more that that, they both looked beaten at the time, so I don’t think ether is particularly well handicapped.
Pure
Poteen on the other hand, won very nicely – and could certainly be capable of
defying his 6lb rise in the weights.
The
trouble is, his jumping stills look a little dodgey - and he seems to want
quickish ground.
I
therefore think he is a bit too dangerous to get involved with at the available
price.
In
truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if one of the old timers got into a rhythm up
front and jumped his rival into the ground.
If
that is to happen, then last years winner, Georgian King looks most
likely…
There are some interesting races on the rest of the card
- but little in the way of potential betting action…
It
will be fascinating to see Ballyalton and Willows Saviour returning to action in
the novice chase.
I
would expect to market to be revealing about their chances.
Whilst in the handicap chase at 3:40, Aloomomo should
follow up his bloodless victory at Uttoxeter last Friday: provided he jumps
around OK and last weeks race hasn’t left its mark.
Fairyhouse
Just
a couple to keep an eye on at Fairyhouse…
The
novice hurdle at 3:05 looks very open.
I
was taken by the run of Akito last time out – and although he’s a tricky ride, I
expect the very promising Donagh Meyler will be able to cope with him. His 7lb
claim is a gift – and maybe able to tilt the balance in this particular
race.
In
the following handicap hurdle, I am inclined to side with the Henry De Bromhead
trained Sizing Scorpion.
He ran a cracker on his comeback from a long absence – and a 3lb rise in the weights shouldn’t be enough to stop him – provided he’s gone the right way since that race.
He ran a cracker on his comeback from a long absence – and a 3lb rise in the weights shouldn’t be enough to stop him – provided he’s gone the right way since that race.
And
that’s the big concern – the run was preceded by an 18 month absence, so there
is a chance he could ‘bounce’.
If
the price was right, I might take a chance - but 9/2 isn’t the price I had in
mind.
Here’s hoping you have a great day if you do chose to get
involved.
Tips
Early
None
Late
None
Mentions
Chepstow 2:15 Ozzy Thomas (O )
Chepstow 3:20 Moorlands Mist (S )
Chepstow 3:50 Newton Thistle (C )
Warwick 1:35 Pure Poteen (C )
Fairyhouse 3:05 Akito (O )
Fairyhouse 3:35 Sizing Scorpion (C )
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