Daily write-up - Nov 8th

There are 4 meetings today: Sandown and Ffos Las in the UK – plus Navan and Limerick in Ireland…

The high light of todays racing, is the reappearance of last seasons Gold Cup winner Coneygree, who begins his campaign in an intermediate chase at Sandown.

He is probably the only Gold Cup winner to have run in intermediate chases (they are for horses just out of their novice season) - but then again, he was the first novice in 40 year to win the Gold Cup (and there probably weren’t intermediate chases back in those days !).

I’ve ended up with just the one small tip on the day.

I did consider a couple of others – but the uncertainty over the ground remains – and I didn’t feel absolutely compelled to tip them.

Once again, there was a significant market reaction to the tip that I did issue – even though it was just 0.25pt.

I can claim (with some justification) that the price would likely have collapsed anyway – but clearly, I’m having quite an effect on these weak, early markets.

I’ll need to give a bit of thought to the best way of handling things, going forward…

That will have to wait for another day though – for now the rationale for the tip – plus my thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Ffos Las

3:15

The first thing that needs to be said about As De Fer, is that he is a risky selection…

It is 4 years since he last win a race, and in that time he has suffered a variety of issues. He could well be gone at the game – and if that’s the case, he’ll likely be pulled up today.

However…

If he retains just a fraction of his former ability, then off a mark of 106, he should absolutely dot up in todays race.

Put into context, his last winning run, over todays course and distance (and on soft ground), was off a mark of 135. More than that, he won in a hack canter, was raised to a mark of 139 – and went off a 10/1 shot for the grade 1 Welsh Grand National.

Unfortunately, that’s when things started to go wrong – he was pulled up that day and he has been in decline pretty much ever since then.

That said, I felt there were definite glimmers last season, that the ability still remains.

He ran a reasonable race on his seasonal debut at Exeter (off a mark of 129) – and also ran pretty well over 2m4f at this course as recently as January.

The speed rating he achieved that day, was the second best of his life - and the second best in todays race.

His final 3 performances last season weren’t as good - but they resulted in his mark falling by almost 20lb.

I would be pretty convinced that the best time to catch him is first time out – so over the perfect course and distance, on ground he will relish – and with Noel Fehily on top - I think he is worth a risk at a price.

For those of you who play on the exchanges, it is worth considering putting in a low lay to recover your stakes.

There is a chance that the horse will travel incredible well – but just not get home (he’s had breathing problems).

Hopefully that won’t be the case, but it could act as a form of insurance.
In terms of dangers, then I couldn’t categorically rule out any of the runners.

That said, the favourite Conas Taoi has to be respected, if he has recovered from his tough race on Wednesday; whilst bottom weight, Tom Bach, catches my eye (even from 8lb out of the handicap).
He has very good course form – and hinted at a return to form on his comeback run at Chepstow.

0.25pt win As De Fer 7/1

Earlier on the Ffos Las card, I was quite tempted by Gowanauthat.

He ran a good race when beaten by the improving Butlergrove King at Worcester, before unseating early when favourite at Ludlow.

The big concern with him, is whether he will handle todays heavy ground – but if he does, I think he will take the beating.
One who will handle the ground is the Venetia Williams trained favourite, Bobble Boru.
There’s a chance she is also well handicapped, so whilst I suspect the race is between the two of them, it’s still not easy to see an angle (as they are first and second fav).

The novice handicap chase at 2:40 looks just too difficult to fathom…

With a straight bat, Delores Delightful is probably the one.

However, Wild Bill is the type who could improve markedly for fences (he’s a former PTP winner); whilst it would be no surprise to see big improvement from either of the JP runners (Globalisation and Rouquine Sauvage).

On balance, just a watching race…

Similarly, the handicap hurdle at 3:50 looks incredibly trappy.

The issue here is that most of the runners in the race, have a non conventional angle that needs to be examined and put into context.

Uknowhatimean has his first outing for Harry Fry (only runner on the card) and understandably the bookmakers have priced him up very defensively.
The expectation is that he will be a big improver – and that may be the case – but equally it may not…

Berea Boru had graded aspirations a couple of seasons back. If he retains his ability, then a mark of 125 could look very lenient.
Count Guido Diero is well handicapped over hurdles, compared to his chase rating; Whilst Minella on Line is potentially very well handicapped, if he can build on the bit of promise he showed on his seasonal debut.
In short, a case can be made for many – but all of them have potential holes.

Minella on Line might become interesting if he drifts to around 10/1 – but he’s currently 7/1 so that may not happen…

Sandown

In the opening race on the card, Vincenzo Mio looks very interesting.
His UK form has got him a mark of 130 – but on French form, he appears virtually the same horse as Art Mauresque (who is rated 147 – admittedly over fences).
The suggestion is that Vincenzo Mio could have a stone in hand of his current mark – and if that is right, he will win this afternoon.

The booking of 8lb claimer, Harry Cobden, makes me think team Dicheat expect him to deliver – but 2/1 is a tight price…

I guess he would have been another Top Pick, because I think he will win – let’s see how he gets on !

Coneygreee should take the intermediate chase in his stride – even though Southfield Theatre will ensure he has to get out of a hack canter to do so…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:00, I am quite interested in Prairie Town.
In fact, if favourite, Winner Massago, had remained in the race and Prairie Town had drifted a little, I might well have tipped him EW.

My only issue with him, is that I think he needs a bit of a stamina test – and I don’t know whether Sandown will provide it.

In fairness, it’s not a particularly quick track –and the ground is likely to be soft – so it just might.

Simply, I can’t be sure…

If it does, then I could actually see him winning – but if it doesn’t, I could see him running on late and maybe getting placed…

Perhaps he is one to play in-running, if the ground is soft and there is a lot of pace in the race…

There is a veterans chasse at 3:35 – and they as always fascinating contests…

So much will depend on the state of the ground – so with the uncertainty, it’s not a race that can be tackled with confidence.

If the ground was heavy, I would really fancy Mountainous - but I don’t think it will be heavy enough for him.

Aachen and Roalco De Farges are the two most likely to fight out the finish but they head the market and don’t come without issues.
Roalco is inconsistent – and so can’t be relied upon to run his race; whist Aachen has very little in hand of his current mark.

Vino Griego potentially has loads in hand of his mark – but he’s a horse that tends to need his first outing.
If he were backed late, I would be interested – but otherwise, he is probably best watched.

The other one I am half interested in, is Monkerty Tunkerty.

He was pulled out of the Badger Ales chase yesterday, to run in this. Presumably that was on a account of the ground - but does suggest that connections are looking to win (rather than running to simply get fit).

There isn’t a lot in the form book to support his chances – but I find him interesting all the same…

Navan

Once again, there are not too many betting opportunities on the Navan card – though there are a few horses to keep an eye on…

In the opener, Fennis Moll is back over hurdles after her win over fences at Stratford.

She gets to run off a mark 11lb lower as well, so must have a chance.

That said, it looks a competitive heat – and it wouldn’t surprise me if there were one or two too good for her.

Arctic Fire should take the Lismullen hurdle at 1:40 – but I won’t be backing him at 1/2, to do so !

For a horse with such a lot of talent, he has a shocking win record.

He’ll almost certainly have to win this on the bridle, if he is to win.

The trouble is, the opposition is so limited, he may well be able to do just that…

Ancient Sands is the one that catches my eye in the handicap hurdle at 2:15.
However it is such a big field – with a number of unexposed types – it is not a race where you could be confident.

Finally, the big race on the card, is Fortria chase at 2:50.

On official ratings, Special Tiara is the one to beat – particularly on decent ground – but it might not be that straight forward..

If he is to come unstuck, then I suspect it will be Hidden Cyclone who gets the better of him.
He has matured into a consistent, high level performer – and is the one runner in the field, almost guaranteed to run his race.

The other one of real interest, is Flemenstar.
A couple of seasons back, he would have eaten these for breakfast.

However the wheels came off big time – and he now has much to prove.
It would be lovely to see him come back with a bang for his rookie trainer – but his price of 25/1 suggests that s unlikely to happen…

Limerick

A very low key at Limerick – but a couple to watch out for in the final two races on the card…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:40, I would expect Cadawill run to well.

He ran a nice race last time out at Punchestown and I would expect him to do the same today.
The problem is, he has few secrets from the handicapper (certainly less than one or two others in the field might have).

Finally, I haven’t given up on Side Saddle, just yet.

She is a full sister to Voler la Vadette and whilst she might not quite have the ability of her sibling, she definitely showed a couple glimpses in bumpers last season.

It’s an impossible race to be categoric on  (the money for Once raced, One Cool Robin, could be significant), but I might be tempted to have a tiny play on her at the generally available 8/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ffos Las 3:15 As De Fer 0.25pt win 7/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Ffos Las 2:05 Gowanauthat (C )

Ffos Las 2:40 Delores Delightful (O )

Sandown 12:45 Vicenzo Mio (P )

Sandown 3:00 Prairie Town (C )

Navan 2:15 Ancient Sands (S )

Navan 2:50 Hidden Cyclone (O )

Limerick 3:40 Cadawill (O )

Limerick 4:10 Side Saddle (S )