Daily write-up - Nov 29th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Leicester and Carlisle in the UK – and Fairyhouse in Ireland.

In truth, there is very little to get excited about in the UK: the Carlisle card in particular, is extremely drab.

It should be very different in Ireland, where Fairyhouse stage a top class card, featuring 3 grade 1 events.

However, I say ‘should’, because in truth, the card doesn’t grab me as I would expect…

The lack of true competitive is Irish racing is an ever growing issue, with Willie Mullins and/or Gigginstown, dominating almost every race.

That’s the case again today, with the combination responsible for favourites in 6 of the 7 races on the card - with the other, appearing to be a lottery (until the inspired late gamble materialises !).

It makes the races less entertaining to watch – and betting on them profitably, very difficult.

Consequently there are no tips on the day.

However, I do have some thoughts – and they might contain the odd winner or two – if you are prepared to hunt around !

Fairyhouse

The opening 4 year old hurdle race looks at the mercy of the Willie Mullins trained Miss Tata.
She won well on her debut at Down Royale – and will likely follow up today (particular in receipt of the mares allowance).

That said, There are two or three who you could consider taking her on with:

Tiliver was well fancied to give her a race when she won at Down Royale – but ran a shocker. If that was a one off, he could of interest (at 16/1).

It could also be significant that Gordon Elliot chooses to throw the Gigginstown owned Rocket Punch into this for his debut.
The conventional path would be a maiden hurdle first – so the suggestion is that he is well thought of..

The third one of interest, is La Vagabound.

He fell on his debut (when looking held by Tiliver) but won well on his only subsequent start.

Todays heavy ground could be an issue for him – but he clearly has a lot of ability.

In summary, Miss Tata will take the beating – but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if one the 3 mentioned above were able to give her a race.

The first grade 1 of the afternoon, the Royal Bond hurdle at 1:10, is likely to be captured by Willie Mullins.

The betting suggests it will be via Long Dog – but that is almost certainly because Ruby Walsh has chosen him.

In terms of form, there is little between he and stable mate, Bachasson, so with the latter 7/2 and the former even money, it’s not hard to see where the value lies…

The Hattons Grace hurdle at 1:40, should be won by Arctic Fire.

You can ague a case against him in terms of the way the race could be run – and his ‘quirkiness’.

However, he is more than a stone superior to all of his rivals on official ratings - so even if a few things go wrong (and they may well), he is still likely to have enough in hand, to win.

There is a ridiculous looking handicap, bang in the middle of the card, at 2:10.

There has been a plunge on Smoking Big Cigars – which may be significant (he has the right profile for a plunge horse).
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another late plunge – and then you would have to pay your money and make your choice !

With a straight bat, I would offer Cest Notre Gris.

He should run his race –and will be better for his debut a fortnight ago.

He can be backed at 16/1 – so EW, you will make a small profit it he’s in the frame.

That said, with 24 runners – and so many unknowns, it’s a questionable race to be getting involved in…

If there is a super star on show this afternoon, it is likely to be No More Heroes, in the final grade 1 on the afternoon, the Drinmore chase (2:40).

His reputation is sky high – and as he comes from the stable of Gordon Elliot, it’s likely to be warranted…

In truth, his performances on the tack haven’t quite matched the hype – and I would be quite happy to take him on this afternoon – if I could find the right horse…

Outlander might be the right horse. He has a verdict over No More Heroes from when they met over hurdles at Leopardstown, in January.

He also won his debut outing over fences (when beating Free Expression),.

The main issue with him is that, Like No More Heroes, he is owned by Gigginstown – and their number one jockey, Bryan Cooper has opted to ride No More Heroes.

Still that leaves Ruby on Outlander, and he can’t be considered a bad back-up !

In terms of natural ability, I could be tempted by Monksland.
However, he only made his chasing debut a week ago – and will be 9 in the new year.

His profile just doesn’t really ‘fit’ for a grade 1 novice chase.

Instead, I might opt for Shantou Flyer…

He keeps on progressing – and is still only 5 years old.

I find it hard to believe that a horse ridden by an amateur can win a race such as this – but he travels and jumps and looks certain go well.

He’s a 16/1 shot – and whilst he might not be quite good enough to win, I could see him getting placed in the race, as others fall by the wayside…

The handicap chase at 3:10, looks like a race I need to steer clear of !

For a start, my beloved Cootamundra returns to action under rules after a period PTPing.

I’ll get sucked in by him (as a back to lay in-running) – no doubt about that !

There is also Bless the Wings, who we were on in the cross country chase at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, when he didn’t quite manage to get home.

I could also be tempted by the enigmatic, Sword Fish, who will have ideal conditions today – and could just bounce back to form.
Whilst the best handicapped horse in the race should be Killer Crow – though whether he will stay todays marathon trip, is a bit of a guess.

My guess is that he will – and he looks the one to beat.
However, he is also favourite – and there are plenty I could look to take him on with !

Leicester

I wish I could get a proper handle on the Leicester going…

I don’t live that far away from the course – and a going description the chase course of good, good to firm in places, just doesn’t ring true (we’ve had loads of rain recently – it’s even raining now !).

However, that’s the official description - and Restless Harry (who wants soft ground) has been taken out of the Veterans chase (2:00) because of the going.

If it were soft (which is what I was expecting), then I would have been very keen on Araldur.
However, if it is good, then that will suit Creevytennant and French Opera much more.

Of the two, I would favour Creevytennant, who could get the run of things up front – and should be better suited by the trip.
However, he is favourite, and there is minimum value in a best price of 3/1.

In the following race on the card, I would expect our old friend Hartside to run well – though again, I would prefer softer underfoot conditions for him.

On soft ground, I would be very surprised if he finished out the frame – however, if it is a bit quicker, he could end up fifth or sixth.
Again, there is little juice in a price of 8/1 – even if you back him EW.

Here’s hoping for a great day if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.