Daily write-up - Nov 9th

There are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Carlisle and Southwell.

To be honest, before I looked at the cards, I thought today might be a good day to take off.

I suspect the rest of the week will be busy, building to Cheltenhams Open meeting at the weekend.

However, when I did look at the cards, I found it relatively easy to identify a couple of possible tips.

One of those has materialised – the other hasn’t…

I’ve spent a little time trying to figure out how best to issue the tips.

I can’t say I’m come up with anything earth shattering – but lets see how the switch to issuing late goes…

Here’s the rationale behind the days tip – plus a few other thoughts…

Southwell

1:30

I could be very keen on Lac Sacre in this – if it weren’t for one thing…

In terms of the positives: he’s a young horse (the youngest in the race) – who can arguably boast the best form in the race.

Certainly, his third at Ffos Las in January (where he finished just ahead of Village Vic – and Ar De Fer) and his subsequent second to Midnight Lira at Taunton, stand up to the highest level of scrutiny.
Furthermore, he will be well suited by todays test of 2m4f on likely soft ground.

The cherry on the cake should be his recent pipe opener on the all weather at Wolverhampton but that is the actual stumbling block (and why I suspect, he’s the price he is).

Everything was going just great in that race, until about half a mile from home. Lac Sacre was travelling fine – racing prominently and giving up the outside of the track to nobody (just as you would expect from a horse out for a run).
However, he then came under pressure - and then dropped out rather alarmingly, ultimately finishing a distant last.
Now I’ve no doubt the run was badly needed - but I still struggle to believe that was the plan.

The stewards enquired in to the performance – and connections could offer no explanation.

The question is, how much weight do we put on it..?

He’s back out today, just under a fortnight later, which suggests to me, that it can’t have been anything major.
Maybe he swallowed his tongue – or got caught in the kick back. I honestly don’t know.

If it is a physical problem and it repeats itself today, I suspect he’ll pull up.
However, if it was a one off occurrence – and he’s come on for the run, I suspect he’ll go very close.

Without the doubt, in a race which doesn’t look like it will take a lot of winning, I would have staked him ‘properly’.

With the doubt, I feel obliged to reign back…

In terms of dangers, then the top 3 in betting are the obvious ones – but if Lac Sacre brings his ‘A’ game to the table, I think he’ll be able to handle them.

Let’s hope that’s the case..

0.25pt win Lac Sacre 10/1

If I’d really wanted to cause a price crash today, I would have tipped Miss Oscarose early, in the previous race on the card.

She looks quite fascinating to me: a 3 time PTP winner, who has got a handicap mark via 2 hurdle runs over unsuitable distances…

The booking of Richard Johnson alone, catches the eye – and I’m a bit surprised she’s not been backed (even without my help !).

I guess the suggestion from that is that connections don’t fancy her – and I think you would need to see money, in order to persuade you to get involved.

But if proper money did come (late and significant), I could see her taking this contest.
If she doesn’t perform, then Venetias Rosa Fleet is the most obvious one to side with.

Carlisle

The most interesting race of the day, is the novice chase, off at 1:45.

Those of you who read the ante-post preview I did for the SBC, will have picked up that I’m pretty keen on Seeyouatmidnight for the RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival.
He makes his chasing debut in this particular race (which is a good thing, as at least I now know he is going over fences !) – but he faces some pretty strong rivals.

Certainly if he manages to defeat Sisol and Maximiser, he is likely to appear in a few ante post lists (he’s not there currently).

That said, if that does happen it’s unlikely to be at the fancy prices I was hoping for.

It’s an impossible race to call – but should be a fascinating one to watch.

Come on Seeyouatmidnight !!

The graduation chase at 2:50, is almost as good (but not quite !).

I was quite keen to oppose Salubrious in this, when he was put in at 6/4 – but it looks like I’m in good company.

He’s now out to 11/4 as the money has come for both Blakemount and Deputy Dan.
They would be the two who would interest me most – and I could easily see Blakemount attempting to make all, under his relatively light weight.
I reckon he might do it as well – but I’m not going to be drawn in at 11/4.

Another watching race, I’m afraid…

Finally, I was very tempted to take on the handicap chase at 3:25.

I’ll be surprised if the winner comes from outside the top 4 in the betting – and of those 4, I fancy Retrieve the Stick and Alto Des Mottes, most (in that order).

At the right prices (say 7/2 and 6/1) I would have been prepared to split stakes between them.

That could be done on BF when I issued the tips – but not with the bookies (who were no bigger than 11/4 on Retrieve the Stick).

In the circumstances, I wasn’t prepare to make it an official bet – but I certainly wouldn’t put off anyone who is able to achieve those prices.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Southwell 1:30 Lac Sacre 0.25pt win 10/1

 

Mentions

 

Southwell 1:00 Miss Oscarose (S )

Carlisle 2:50 Blakemount (P )

Carlisle 3:25 Retrieve the Stick (P ) & Alto Des Mottes (O )