Daily write-up - Nov 28th

There are 5 NH meetings today: Newbury, Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s the final day of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury – and the Hennessy Gold Cup is the feature of the afternoon.

Unfortunately, I’ve not managed to take the meeting apart in the same way I did the Cheltenham Open meeting.

I think that has been in partially down to the ground (which has changed daily – from Good/Soft on day 1, to Sort/Heavy today) – and partially down to the fact that a surprising number of ‘unknown’ horses have run at the meeting (making seasonal debuts, new trainers etc).

Both those factors have made it difficult to have confidence when assessing the fields.

Still, that’s the way it has been – and I’ve acted in a cautious manner, in response.

In truth, today isn’t a lot different.

I have more confidence over the state of the ground – and I think there are a couple of races where I can get my head round most of the field – but there are still plenty of unquantifiables.

Consequently, tips have been kept at a modest level.

I’ve ended up with 4 small ones at Newbury – in 3 races: plus a couple from elsewhere.

He is the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts.

Newbury

1:15

This is a ferociously competitive race – one which I maybe should have left alone – but Abracadabra Sivola has ticks in so many boxes, I just had to get involved…

In truth, because of the competitive nature of the race, I did hope that we might get a double figure price on him – and then I really would have been interested.

I expected the likes of La Vaticane, Aloomomo, Se Cetait Vrai and Shanganin to dominate the market – but perhaps the fact his price is standing up to them, is not a bad thing…

In terms of the case for him, then I think he is a potentially well handicapped horse, who will love todays conditions and who really impressed me with his jumping, last time out at Exeter.
That was in a very decent novice chase and whilst ultimately he proved no match for Native River, that one did the form no harm when coming out and winning a grade 1 novice chase at the track on Thursday.

The biggest issue today, may be the large field size (and consequential traffic issues).

That said, he has Dickie on top, to help steer a course – and I suspect that 3 or 4 of them, are just there for an outing, anyway…

Of the outsiders, then Big Casino is of some interest: as too is Simply Wings.
Whilst if money came for Morning Reggie, I would be fearful of him.

0.25pt win Abracadabra Sivola 8/1

3:00

It’s interesting to note that 6 of the last 10 Hennessy winners have been 7 years old – and a further 2 have been 6…

I think that makes a lot of sense.

This is a touch race – and generally for tough races, you want a young, healthy horse.

Only 6 of todays field fall into that age bracket:

Saphir De Rheu and The Young Master are both 6: whilst Splash of Ginge, Ned Stark, If in Doubt and Urano are 7.

My guess is that is why Pricewise has selected Saphir De Rheu – and Splash of Ginge…

Anyway, I digress !

Suffice to say that I examined this area fully before I decided on my tips for the race.

Of the horses in the ‘right’ age bracket, the 3 that interested me most were Saphir, The Young Mater and If in Doubt.

However, I have concerns about the jumping of the first and last named; whilst Saphir is also too short in the betting – and If in Doubt is making his seasonal debut (not ideal, in such a race).
That left me with The Young Master.
However, I have a slight issue with him…

In December, last year, he beat a fast finishing Houblon Des Obeaux by a diminishing 2 and a half lengths, in receipt of 17lb…

Today he gets just 6lb from that rival.

In short, Houblon should turn the form around.
More than that, Houblon loves Newbury (he was second in last years Hennessy) – and loves heavy ground.

I simply can’t see how he’s not going to run a huge race (even though he is 8 !) – and he’s a decent price as well…

Earlier in the week, my fancy for the race was Theatre Guide.

Like Houblon, he has been placed in a previous Hennessy off a higher mark – and yet is still only 8 years old.

However, when I picked him out, the Newbury ground was good to soft: it is now borderline heavy.
That is not ideal for Theatre Guide.

I could still see him running well – but I just wonder if he will get home…

On the plus side, his stable couldn’t be in much better form – and he has ‘go to Paddy’ on top.
Stranger things happen…

0.25pt win Houblon Des Obeaux 14/1

0.125pt EW Theatre Guide 33/1

3:35

Henry Oliver and James Davies did us a big favour with Keel Haul, at the Cheltenham open meeting – and I’m hoping they can repeat the dose with Whispering Harry here…

In truth, there are a lot of similarities between the pair:

Like Keel Haul, Whispering Harry is a second season chaser, who showed fair form last season.

He managed to clock up 3 wins – all on very soft ground – and that liking for deep conditions should stand him in good stead, this afternoon.

He looks reasonably handicapped to me – with the plenty of scope for improvement.

He should also be cherry ripe, following a nice pipe opener over hurdles at Leicester, a fortnight ago.

His case couldn’t be described as compelling – more gently persuasive…

I can see a few dangers in the race – and did think long and hard about a saver on Venetias, Gardefort.

He did us a favour when winning on his seasonal debut last season - and I can imagine that he’s been primed to repast the dose this afternoon.

Stellar Notion is the other one to be potentially fearful of – though that is factored into the price: whilst I would expect Pearls Legend to run another game race, but probably not be quite good enough.

0.25pt win Whispering Harry 16/1

In the novice handicap chase at 12:45, my 2 against the field were Aso and Arzal.

However they opened up first and second favourite – and I just don’t feel that strongly about either one…

Of the two, I think Aso is the one to beat.

A decent hurdler, he shaped well on his chasing debut – and will love todays conditions.
However, in a very tricky race, there is minimal value in a price of 5/1.

Newcastle

2:40

My instinctive feeling, was that Virak might be able to outclass this field…

He was sent off 9/2 third favourite, behind Coneygree and Saphir de Rhue, for the grade 1 Kauto Star novice chase at last seasons Boxing day meeting at Kempton.

He was no match for Coneygree that day – and could only finish a distant third – but it still gives an indication of his potential class.

He disappointed n his next outing (when 1/2 fav for a grade 2 race) – but took apart a field of handicappers on his final run of the season.
That was off a mark of 144  - but I suspect he will be able to cope with the 9lb higher mark that he runs off today.
Certainly, I felt he shaped with distinct promise on his seasonal debut at Ascot a few weeks back.

He ultimately finished well beaten that day – but I suspect the run was needed and he wouldn’t have been particularly suited by the good ground.
Todays conditions ware likely to be much more up his street - and the booking of apprentice Harry Cobden, to take off 7lb, strikes me as significant…

If he’s not up to the task, then I think Masters Hill is the one most likely to take advantage.

That said, it the ground is truly bottomless, I wouldn’t discount Venetias, Saroque – who is likely to relish such conditions.

0.5pt win Virak 7/1

There is a fascinating opener to the Newcastle card…

I was very taken by Shimal Dawn when he won at Carlisle on the first day of the TVB season.

I’m surprised he only got 2lb for that win – and I reckon that makes him the one to beat today.
That said, I would be fearful of a couple who finished behind him: Cultram Abbey and The Rambling Kid.

The latter would appear to have no chance of turning round a 20 length beating on just 4lb better terms – but I did like the way he moved in that race (after along absence).

He’s 20+ on BF –and a pre race back to lay in running, is possibly the way to go.
Outside those 3, Wizards Bridge has to be of interest after a good win last time at Exeter; and I could also see Iora Glas running well on his chasing debut.

In short, too tricky to play in – but an intriguing race, non the less…

Doncaster

Rain is due to hit Doncaster this afternoon – but I don’t think it is going to come in time for Prairie Town in the handicap hurdle at 2:30.

I’m sure a few of you will recall that I got close to tipping him last time out, when he won at Sandown.

I was unsure whether the ground would be soft enough for him that day, over the minimum trip – and whilst he is stepped up in trip today, I’m pretty sure that the ground won’t be as soft as he would like.

In truth, I might still have taken a risk on him, because I think he wants a test of stamina rather than soft ground (and the extra distance should provide that).

However, he faces a couple of very interesting rivals (Hannahs Princess and Red Devil Boys), who want quick ground – and with conditions in their favour, I think they are likely to prove his superior.

If the rain does come in time however, and you are able to act, then I think he would represent a very good bet at 8/1…

The previous race on the card (1:55) looks very strong.

Jack Steel was a massively impressive winner last time out at Ayr and must have a good chance of following up today – even off a 12lb higher mark.

However, he faces a tough rival, in the shape of Billy Merriot.

He is a fragile sort, who has not seen much racing, but was well fancied last time out at Kempton, when unluckily brought down.

He represents the bang in form Harry Fry/Michael Legg combination  - and if lucks goes his way today, I think he might be able to show what a talented horse he is…

Fairyhouse

2:15

From day 1 of the season, I was always going to be tipping Diamond King in this race…

He was a horse I knew I would be interested in, from the moment I heard he had transferred from the stable of Donald McCain to that of Gordon Elliot.

I still remember watching the horse make his racecourse debut in a bumper at Wetherby, nearly 3 year ago.
He was so impressive – I was convinced that I’d seen something special.

My expectation was that I would be backing him for the 2014 Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival – but it never happened.

He was off the course for 12 months and when he did return, at the beginning of this year, he didn’t show much in a couple of runs.

A transfer to Elliot followed – and whilst I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him go in first time out at Down Royale, I also wasn’t too surprised to see him beaten.

Keith Donoghue was on board at Down Royale: Davy Russell takes over today.
The Down Royale race was worth 20K – it’s 30K today…

In fairness, Diamond King ran well enough at Down Royale – and arguably was unlucky not to go pretty close.

However, I think he will be fitter today: Elliott will know him better – and he couldn’t have a better man in the saddle.

In truth, I would have liked weaker opposition and a better price – but the market isn’t stupid nowadays.

Generally speaking, if a horse is fit and fancied, the market reflects that – we just have to accept that situation.

I guess my slight concern is that there is one lurking there, capable of beating him – After Rain and Blue Hell look the most likely sorts to me.

If that’s the case, then so be it.

So long as he’s trying, I think we have every chance – and I have no reason to think he won’t be going flat out day !

0.375pt win Diamond King 5/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.