Daily write-up - Nov 15th

There are 4 meetings this afternoon: Cheltenham and Fontwell in the UK – plus Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

The final day of the Open meeting – and whilst the card is interesting, it looks like one to tread very carefully with, from a betting perspective…

3 small field conditions races are followed by 2 impossible looking handicaps and equally impossible looking bumper.

I guess I could have forced a tip or two, if I’d had to – but that is exactly what I would have been doing…

I also spent a bit of time looking over the Fontwell card – and a little less on the 2 Irish ones – but non of them yielded much of interest.

A little odd for a day like today – but there you go…

Ofcourse I do have some ‘mentions’ so those particularly keen on some action can try and do a bit of cherry picking there.

For the rest of you, there will be other days…

Just a quick ‘thank you’ to Ian and Rodney for their feedback on the ‘Info’ thread, in the forum.
If any more of the Info guys can find a few minutes to feedback on the past week, it will be appreciated.

Here are my thoughts on the Cheltenham card – and a few other races elsewhere…

Cheltenham

1:00

As you are aware, I am a fan of Altior. He was unbelievably impressive on his comeback run at Chepstow – and whilst he only scrambled home at Ascot last time, that did show he has the heart for a battle.

Today will be his acid test. He is facing 5 decent looking rivals – so any chinks in his armour will be exposed.

I think he might be good enough for the job – but I’m not confident.

That said, a price of 3/1 looks perfectly fair to me…

Certainly, I would be happy enough to take on Maputo, who just might find the combination of today’s track and ground, too much.
Of the others, Simon Squirrel and Drumlee Sunset are the two I would be most interested in.

The former looked much improved on his seasonal debut – but that was a Micky Mouse race.

I would therefore be more inclined to side with Drumlee Sunset.
He was beaten by Mister Miyagi, last time out – but is 7lb better off today. He should also be sharper for the run.

He can be backed at 7/1 and my intention is probably to split stakes between him and Altior…

1:35

I was very impressed by Garde la Victoire, when he made his chasing debut at Uttoxeter.

It took him a couple of fences to warm up, but I felt his jumping was cat like, towards the end of that race.

He’s the most talented horse in the race as well, so not an easy one to oppose.
That said, I think even money is plenty short enough, in a strong novice chase…

Certainly, I see Calipto as a real threat. He looks the type to do better over fences – but he has around 10lb to make up on Garde Le Victoire, on hurdle form – so will have his work cut out.

4/1 can only be viewed as a fair price…

Fox Norton has impressed with his fencing – but I’m not convinced he will be able to give Garde le Victoire 4lb, assuming the last named jumps round cleanly.

If there is a bet in the race, it is probably The Grey Taylor, pre race, with a view to laying off in running.

He could well get an uncontested lead – and in truth, isn’t far off the principals, on hurdling form.

He has also shown a good aptitude for fences.

Depending on how the race pans out, there is a chance he could possibly hang on and win  – but either way, I could see him trading a fair bit shorter in running than the 20/1 currently on offer..

2:10

I’m always going to find it impossible to be objective about any race with Sprinter Sacre in the field…

At his peak, he is the best chaser I’ve ever seen – so to see him quoted at 3/1 for this race – in receipt of weight from the rest of the field, is frankly ridiculous.

At this prime, he would have given them all 2 stone and beaten them without coming off the bridle…

Ofcourse, the Sprinter Sacre we saw last season, was a shadow of the former great –and it is that Sprinter Sacre which the bookies expect to turn up today. And in truth, they are right to expect that – if anything, he is likely to have regressed further, rather than recaptured his former brilliance.
But I just find that sad…

Ignoring him (which I have to, if I am to assess the race), then Simply Ned should be the one to beat.
Certainly his run in this race 12 months ago, when he split 2 subsequent Grade 1 festival winners is the form pick by a long margin.

Whether he will repeat that today is open to question – though in terms of recent form and fitness, there is no reason why he shouldn’t.

Savello was an eye catcher on his debut for the Skeltons – but they will need to have improved him in order for him to be competitive today; whilst Croc Bay is one I could definitely have been interested I, if the ground had come up really soft (which I guess, might still be the case).

I don’t fancy Mr Mole: and I suspect Somersby is probably too old (though not absolutely sure about that !).

On balance then, this has to be a watching race – though when I am watching it, I’ll find it impossible not to reflect back on the magnificent Sprinter Sacre, who would have torn this race apart, just a couple of years ago

2:40

I know I’ve dissected quite a few of the big handicaps over the past couple of days – but I’m just not feeling it with the Greatwood…

I really can’t see a compelling angle into the race, so whatever I come up with, is going to lack conviction…

Normally when I feel like this, the race is won by one of the favourites (because I invariably look to get them beaten !) – and I guess that might be the case today…

Ignoring them, I though Renneti looked quite interesting – assuming he consents to start ! Certainly there is an argument that he has sufficient natural ability to win a race such as this, off his current mark…

The other one I find quite interesting, is Totalise.

He has run well a couple of times, over today course and distance – and I would expect him to do the same today.
That said, I would also expect something to be better than him…

That could be either Superb Story or Mad Jack Mytton. They fought out the finish to a recent race at Wetherby – and on the revised terms, there shouldn’t be a lot between them…

I could go on – but I won’t !

If forced to side with one, it would probably be the Paul Nichols trained Old Guard.

He was very impressive at the October meeting here – and whilst he got 8lb for his win that day, is was merited.
The thing that strikes me about him is that Nichols deemed him good enough to run in the Triumph hurdle last season. If he was right – then he could well be a capable of defying a mark of 145.

16/1 seems a fair enough price to find out…

3:15

A bit like the novice handicap hurdle on Friday, this looks another impossible puzzle…

That said the market seems to have sorted out the wheat from the chaff and the horse is would expect, all sit close to the head of it…

Victory for Uknowwhatimeanharry, Fingerontheswitch or Scoop the Pot, would come as no great surprise – but I suspect it works out at close to even money, if you back all 3…

In truth, that’s probably about right – but would hold limited appeal, as a bet…

Two slightly more speculative ones at bigger prices, are Alzammaar and Brod Na Heireann (anyone speak Gaelic ?!).

I could actually have been quite keen on the former – if the ground had been better.
His defeat of Dexcite at Newbury last spring, reads very well – but apparently he has a strong preference for decent ground.

Assuming the ground has gone against him that means Brod Na Heireann is the one to be interested in.

Formerly trained in Ireland by Sandra Hughes, he’s had just a couple of runs for Alan King.

He should be better for the latest one (his seasonal debut) and could be worth an EW interest at 20/1.

3:50

There is even more guesswork involved in the bumper that closes the card – but as you should know by now, I’m pretty good at guessing

I’m sure a few of you will be tempted by Aurillac, who did the forum regulars a big favour when winning at the Cheltenham October meeting.

I wouldn’t put anyone off him – but this will be harder - and he did get the run of the race that day…

I am a little surprised to see The Unit at 12/1. He has just about the best bumper form in the race – and whilst something probably will improve past him, he could be worth a saver at that kind of price.

However, I suspect the race will be won by one of the market leaders – and I nominate Chap.

He was a very easy winner of an Aintree bumper last spring.

He is now under the care of Dan Skelton – and has the potential to be very good.

6/1 is not a price to be going crazy about – but he does strike me as the most likely winner of the race…

Fontwell

I had a quick look at the Salmon Spray handicap at 1:15 – but the market seems to have it right…

Baron Alco and Boss Des Mottes, strike me as the most likely winners – but they have been put in as first and second favourite.

On a track where the Moores love to train a winner, Baron Alco looks the one to beat – but 5/2 is a tight enough price…

The Southern National at 1:50, looks an absolute minefield…

Everything in the race has a question mark of some sort hanging over it – so it will all come down to which one deals best with their own particular issue !
Unsurprisingly, Gorgehous Liege was uninstalled as favourite - and he probably sets the standard.

However, I was most interested in Letbeso. He was a 12/1 shot yesterday evening – but has been well backed this morning and you now can’t beat 7/1.

With so much uncertainty in the race, however, he can’t be one to recommend at that kind of a price.
I suspect this is a race where the market will foretell the winner.

Look for the one being quietly backed from midday onwards – and you might find yourself a decent bet…

Punchestown

The highlight of the Punchestown card, is the reappearance of the reigning Champion Hurdler, Faugheen, in the Grade 1 Morgiana hurdle.

Ofcourse, he’s no betting proposition – but some times that doesn’t matter.

Unbeaten in his first 10 races under rules, I fully expect him to make it 11 this afternoon, thereby taking the first step in the defence of his hurdling crown at Cheltenham in the spring.

The previous race on the card, is the grade 3 Florida Pearl novice chase – and this odes look more of a betting contest.

Gigginstown are responsible for half of the field and it seems significant that Bryan Cooper has opted to ride the Sandra Hughes trained Wrath of Titans.

He was a decent novice hurdler last season – and his debut over fences suggests he may make an even better chaser.

Shantou Flyer could well be popular, after Vicente advertised the strength of his last time out win at Cheltenham - but that struck me as a misleading race.

I would probably be more fearful of Killer Miller – but at 4/1 Wrath of Titans is a reasonable bet to come out on top.

Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.