Daily write-up - Nov 14th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Cheltenham, Wetherby and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

I had a quick look at the Uttoxeter and Punchestown cards, but there was nothing much of interest, so my efforts were focused on Wetherby – and primarily, Cheltenham…

Once again, there is uncertainty over the weather,
There was talk of monsoons hitting Cheltenham, but they have not materialised – and it looks like they will just end up with a bit of rain.

That should slow conditions down slightly from yesterday, which will be fine…

I was delighted to see that we didn’t trigger a price collapse on Vendor this morning – so well done to all of you who showed restraint on the exchanges.

He looked to me like one that we could easily have forced down to 5/1 or even 4/1.

Not asking for below the odds on BF almost certainly meant this didn’t happen – and meant that everyone should have got 7/1 – which is a fair price.

Just one general comment on todays racing.
After yesterday, I’m sure you are all itching to be putting the mentions in doubles and trebles. Well, what I would say, is that the races I have tipped in aside, I don’t feel strongly about anything.
The remainder of the Cheltenham races are impossible to read – so treat all those ‘mentions’ with caution.

If you do fancy some exotic bets, then I suggest you stick to the main tips – either in multiples or maybe in forecasts with nominated dangers…

Finally, for the guys on the Info service: just a quick request for a bit more feedback on how things have gone this week, via your thread on the forum.

Thanks in advance.

Here are my thoughts on the day.

Cheltenham

1:50

This is a pretty open looking handicap and I’ve decided to split stakes on a couple of progressive young stayers:

Sego Success caught my eye last time out on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

He travelled really well in that race, but didn’t quite get home.

My guess is that was due to lack of fitness rather than lack of stamina, as he had powered home in the mud at Warwick in January, over a slightly longer trip.

He followed the Warwick race up with a fifth place in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham festival, before ending his season with a disappointing run in the Scottish National.

He was dropped a couple of pounds for that, and his comeback run at Chepstow suggested that now is the time to catch him.
I’d be pretty confident he will run well today – the question is whether he will be good enough to win…

Sausalito Sunrise is the opposite of that: I think he is good enough to win – but wouldn’t be absolutely sure he will run his race !

On his last run, he was sent off a short priced favourite for the race at Chepstow that Sego Success ran in.
He was in second palace and still in with a bit of a chance, when he was pulled up sharply, approaching the fourth last.
His jockey thought he had gone wrong – but subsequent examination showed nothing untoward…

We have to be prepared to ignore that run – but if we do, we have the potentially well handicap chaser who was sent off at a short price, for that race.

He was made favourite that days because of some excellent novice form, early last season, around Cheltenham.

If that form can be take at face value – and last time was a one off – he will take some beating today…

It is a pretty open race - but the other two I did consider tipping, were Cogry and Shotgun Paddy.

Both have quite a lot going for them – though both lack a recent run – and Pricewise tipping Cogry, meant the value with him, disappeared…

If you are betting late in the race, then you must bear in mind the state of the ground, as it could be critical.

If there is a lot of rain and it turns really heavy, then don’t dismiss Rigadin de Beauchene.
He is handicapped to win today – and loves desperate conditions.
It would also be just like Venetia to pull a 25/1 Cheltenham winner out of her furry hat !!

0.25pt win Sego Success 10/1

0.25pt win Sausalito Sunrise 9/1

2:25

I guess you would expect the Paddy Power Gold Cup to be competitive – but boy is it !!

20 runners – and I would struggle to rule out more than half a dozen, with any confidence.

And that’s a shame, because I really like the profile of Generous Ransom – and in an average year, I would be very confident of him being there or thereabouts…

The case for him is based on his two runs at Cheltenham last season.

In the first of those, on trials day in January, he tanked thought the race and when he took up the running approaching the last, he looked likely to win by many lengths.

However, he idled up the run in and only hung on by a neck.

The important thing however, was how he travelled through the race – only good horses can do that…

His next run was in the novice handicap chase at the festival and again he travelled.
This time however, his jockey waited to commit – and I think that ultimately that cost him victory because Irish Cavalier came with a stronger, later, run.

Ridden differently, I think Generous Ransom could all but have won that day - and certainly I would be very hopeful of turning the tables win the winner, on 16lb better terms.

Generous Ransom ran below form on his final run of the season – but that was on good ground at Sandown, so I’m happy to ignore that.
He made his seasonal reappearance over hurdles at the Cheltenham October meeting.

Clearly the outing was designed to sharpen him up and after getting outpaced down the hill, he ran on nicely up the hill and should strip much fitter for the run.

If I was looking for a horse with the prefect profile for todays race, I think Generous Ransom would fit it.

If there is rain before the race, then I think that will help.

I also like the fact that there could be an abundance of pace (I’ve spotted 6 horses who either like to lead or race prominently).

That is good on a couple of accounts: firstly, it will help Generous Ransom settle and travel: and secondly, it means that 5 of his rivals are likely to be inconvenienced to a degree…

In terms of dangers, then it could be a long list !
I would nominate Present View, if the rain stays away; whilst if it did come up very soft, I could see Bennys Mist running a big race at a huge price.

Assuming the ground is similar to yesterday however, I think Johns Spirit could be the one to beat.

That said, his running style leaves him susceptible to issues in-running – and he has to give 17lb and a year, to Generous Ransom.

That might be too much for him…

0.25pt EW Generous Ransom 20/1

3:00

Another very tough looking handicap (non of them are easy today !) in which I’ve decide to take a chance on the mare, Rons Dream.

She is relatively unexposed – and progressive - and whilst she is unproven over todays trip, I think she will be fine with it, provided there isn’t too much rain…

She has tried it once before, but that was on her final start last season and it was probably one start too many for her.

Certainly, she looked as good as ever, when she made her seasonal reappearance in the Tote Silver trophy at Chepstow.

She ran really well that day, leading until the second last – and staying on when headed.

I would expect her to come on for that run – and I think there is mileage in her current handicap mark of 129.

In truth, I find it difficult to nominate any particular dangers…

I thought Milan Bound would be the one to beat – but he seems very weak this morning..
I would expect The Job is Right to run a big race – but he could be vulnerable to a finisher, unless it is really soft.

If Morito De Berlais is backed, I would become interested in him – but it’s difficult to know what Nicholls is up to with him.

Whilst I would be disinclined to completely dismiss our old friend Invicta Lake.

He will likely travel out the back (as he does) and trade shorter in running (for those who like that kind of thing).

0.25pt win, 0.125pt place Rons Dream 25/1

The card opens up with a juvenile hurdle event – but I’ve little interest in that…

Wolf of Windlesham may be a bit of value at 14/1 in a couple of places – but it’s guess work…

In the novice chase at 1:15, Un Temp Pour Tous should be too good for his rivals – provided he jumps round cleanly.

I was impressed by Twelve Roses at Wetherby – and he might be the one to follow him home: though Blaklion could well challenge him for that spot.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on Vintage Vinnie.
He’s a horse I’ve really taken to – but I just don’t think Cheltenham is his course.

Look out for him at Chepstow, maybe…

The final two races on the card, look like complete lotteries…

In the novice handicap hurdle at 3:35, I was most attracted to Herbert Park and Leave at Dawn – first and second favourite – brilliant !

Fort Worth also catches my eye – but once again, it is just educated guess work, on my behalf…

Finally, the mares bumper that closes the card looks like a bit of a pin job…

Of the market leaders, then Theatre Territory is the one I would be most interested in: whilst of the outsiders, the unraced Cajun Fiddle catches my eye.
Once again however, not a race I would seriously suggest getting involved with…

Wetherby

3:15

Mark my words, Vendor will win a race this season – and he will win it pretty soon.

The only question in my mind, is whether it will be today.

I’m pretty sure the market will guide – not early, but close to the off.

I think he will be well backed late on, the day he does win – let’s hope that’s today !

In truth, he’s a difficult horse to tip, because I think connections will be looking for a big pay day from him.
That’s why I was particularly keen on us not crushing the price this morning.

My hope is that they are already on.
He opened up at 10/1 yesterday evening and so had already been quite well backed by the time I tipped him.

Let’s hope that was money ‘in the know’ –and not just speculative form students who can see a well handicapped horse.

Because make no mistake, Vendor, is a very well handicapped horse.

He dotted up in a competitive 17 runner handicap hurdle at Newbury, a couple of years ago, off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.

As a result of that win, his mark was raised by 8lb – and he was still  quietly fancied for the very valuable Betfair hurdle, running off a mark of 138…

He drops to class 3 today – which is a world of difference – and turns up following an eye catching seasonal debut at Carlisle.

That was his first run for Sue Smith – and he was allowed to bowl along in the lead.

He travelled very nicely that day – but didn’t get home.
To be honest, that wasn’t surprising. As a way of getting your mark reduced without attracting attention, bowling along at the head of affairs has few peers- particularly when you are naturally a hold up horse !

The way he is ridden today will doubtless also tell us whether connections want to win.

If he is held up at the back – I’ll be optimistic. Whereas if he is allowed his head again, I might be tempted to exit my bet in running (or at least part of it).

As you can tell, this is a risky one – but it’s a risky one that could easily come good.

Let’s hope that Vendors connections did indeed get on early – because if they did, I think he could hack up this afternoon…

0.5pt win Vendor 7/1

The other race of interest on the Wetherby card, is the handicap chase at 2:05…

I think this might come down to whether Venetia has managed to rekindle the flame of the formerly useful, Elenika.

Rated as high as 132, a couple of seasons ago, he starts this campaign off a mark of just 117.
He’s still only 7, so there is no reason to think he’s completely gone at the game and if Venetia can work her magic, he’s got to be the one to beat.

7/2 is a fair – if unspectacular, price…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.