Daily write-up - Nov 10th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Sedgefield.

My initial feeling was that I would have no problem finding a tip or two – but on looking at the cards, it soon became apparent they were very trappy.

They are generally small fields, with a number of the races containing runners that it is impossible to get a proper handle on. As a consequence, opportunities are limited.

The other big issue remains the state of the ground.
At Carlisle yesterday - as with Exeter last week - I was shocked at just how heavy it was riding.

The ground for all 3 meetings today, was described as ‘soft’, last night, in the Racing Post.

My assumption was that in all probability it would be heading towards heavy, today – so that’s what I had in my mind when I studied the form.
You can therefore imagine my surprise when I read this morning that the ground at both Sedgefield and Huntington had changed overnight from ‘Soft’ to ‘Good to Soft’ !

The weather is so weird at the moment – it’s either pouring with rain or unseasonably warm and windy (ie. ideal drying conditions).

Consequently it is almost impossible to predict the state of the ground – and without knowledge of such an important variable – it is very difficult to tip…

I guess that goes some way to explaining why we’ve had such a quiet start to the season.

For those of you new to the service, I should point out that so far, we’ve probably staked about a quarter of the points I would have expected.

Obviously starting the season on a Sunday didn’t help – as Saturdays have tended to account for almost half of the action – but the weather has played a very big part.

Ofcourse another issue I have faced, is that when I have tipped (certainly in the smaller races), it has resulted in price crashes.

That was the case again yesterday – though the crash wasn’t as significant as it has been on a couple of previous occasions.

I suspect that was simply down to the horse involved – in that others didn’t want to back as much (if they had, I guess its price wouldn’t have remained until 10:45  !).

Watching the markets closely yesterday, it was clear what happens…

When I issue the tip, some of you go on to Betfair and ask for a price below that which is generally available with the bookmakers.

This evidently triggers alarms within their systems – and some of the bookmakers cut the price immediately.

From my observation, this includes Sky, PP and VC Bet.

Effectively this means that no one can bet a tip with any of these bookmakers – unless they are prepared to take a couple of points below the quoted price.

Worse than this – because 3 of the main bookmakers are effectively taken out of the equation instantly, it means that the business of all the rest of you, is funnelled through 2 or 3 bookmakers (rather than 5 or 6).

Consequently it won’t take long for those bookmakers to realise that something is going and cut the price (and that is assuming they have no links to oddschecker or Betfair).

In short, it is inevitable that virtually every tip I issue is going to suffer a price crash.
How much of crash will depend on how popular the horse is generally – plus when I issue the tip and how strong the market is.

The only way this could be avoided (or at least minimised) would be if those of you who do bet on Betfair, delayed placing your bets for 5 mins to give those who don’t a chance to get on.

Ironically, if you did that - then on a day like yesterday, when I don’t tip a proper  ‘steamer’, I think everyone would benefit.
BF soon had the horse back out to the price I tipped it at – but all of the bookmakers had shortened it by that point…

I guess it would be useful to know how many of you have been negatively impacted by the price crashes (ie, how many are having to take below the odds); and also how many of you have to bet on BF.

I’ll create a thread on the forum to allow people to have their say and we can see if we can come up with some kind of generally acceptable solution…

Anyway, enough of all that – and on to todays action !

As I’ve inferred above I didn’t expect to have a tip today – just some mentions.

However, working through the mentions, I felt comfortable enough with one of them, to turn it into a small tip.

Clearly it is no certainty – but conditions have moved in its favour – and I think it has been unfairly dismissed by the betting.

The rationale for the tip is below – along with my thoughts on some of the other races.

Please bear in mind, that if you are going to follow any of the mentions today, there are a lot of variables that I can’t get a proper handle on, so real caution would be advised (particularly for with those at relatively short prices).

Huntingdon

2:40

It doesn’t surprise me to see Balgarry being backed in this race.

He has always had the potential to rate higher than his current mark – and if it comes together today, he could outclass his rivals.

However, he comes with plenty of risks attached (his jumping, his fitness, his reticence to settle) and I’m not sure they are completely factored in to his price.

In truth, I think there are risks with all of the market leaders – which is why I’m prepared to take a chance on Minellaforleisure.
He ran fourth in an incredibly hot race on his seasonal debut last year.

That was the Gerry Fielden hurdle at Newbury, where he was preceded home by L’Ami Serge, Kilcooley and Violet Dancer.

The first two home that day subsequently went on to show themselves graded performers – whilst the third , Violet Dancer, won the Betfair hurdle (the fifth home, was Astre De La Coer – but I’ve already said plenty about him !).

Minellaforleisure only had 2 more runs last season – when unplaced in the grade 1 Ladbroke hurdle, over Christmas – and then when finishing runner up to Hurricane Hollow at the Cheltenham April Meeting.
That one came out and ran a blinder on it’s seasonal debut in the Tote Silver Trophy, meaning that every horse Minellaforleisure got beaten by in those two races, has now improved its handicap mark by at least 10lb.

That’s strong form…

Ofcourse, it doesn’t guarantee anything with regard to Minellaforleisure.

He’s making his chasing debut – so will need to take to the fences; and he’s returning from an absence (though the suggestion is that he runs well fresh).

Simply, is a race where there is plenty of guesswork, I think I can construct a case that says he has been underestimated in the betting at 14/1.

Whether he is good enough to come home first, is a different matter – but I do think there’s a chance he might be !

0.25pt win Minellaforleisure 14/1

In the other novice handicap chase, at 1:40, I am Colin is the obvious one.

He certainly has the size to jump a fence – and his hurdle form is as good as anything in the field.

However, he seems quite weak in the betting, which is a concern for a horse making its seasonal debut.

That said, it does look quite a poor race.

Urban Storm and Copperfacejack are the two I would be most fearful of – but I would hope I am Colin would be good enough to account for them.

There is a good quality hurdle at 2:10 and the money for Bivouac looks significant.
He threatened to be a very good juvenile – but just didn’t seem precocious enough to pull it off.

He was also disappointing on his seasonal debut – and the expectation at that point was that he would be sent over fences.

It’s therefore interesting that he runs over hurdles here – and is being well backed.

It is also interesting that he is Noel Fehilys only mount of the day (that is unusual).

At face value, I actually preferred the claim of Forthefunofit – but I suspect the market will sort this one out…

Lingfield

The going at Lingfield is likely to be very heavy – and not for the faint hearted !

In the opening race on the card, I could be quite keen on the chances of Anteros – but there a few things that are tempering my enthusiasm…

Firstly, he’s got top weight in heavy ground (though admittedly the booking of 7lb claimer Ciaran Gethings will help with that); secondly he’s making his seasonal debut; thirdly his trainer, Sophie Leech, hasn’t had a winner for ages - and fourthly, there seems to be a lot of confidence behind both Flementime and Minstrels Gallery.

In terms of pure ability, I think he sets quite a decent standard – but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will win this afternoon…

Mr Bachstar is a big drifter in this – and I can understand that.
He had a tough race just 4 days ago – and will need to have some constitution to survive another one in the Lingfield mud today.
If the fitness of our old friend Strange Bird, was guaranteed - I would take a risk on her.

We know she will handle the conditions and she has got herself reasonably handicapped again.
However, I suspect she might need the run (she did last season).

I guess you could watch the market near the off – but at this point in time, I would have to recommend a watching brief.

In the 3:00 race, I could be also be quite keen on Tresor de Bonte – if his fitness was assured.

I suspect he could be a bit better than his current mark – but he faces a couple of concerning rivals in the shape of Gores Island (who will love the ground) and Walk in the Mill (who is a complete unknown quantity).
You could maybe take a chance at a price – but 3/1 wouldn’t be that price..

Sedgefield

I spent quite a lot of time turning round the handicap chase that will be run at 2:50…

If he returns to form, than Distime would be a great bet.

He was 20/1 last night – but you can’t beat 12/1 now.
If the support continues, he would definitely be of interest.

However, assuming he’s not the force he was, then Grate Fella is probably the one of most interest.

He should be better for his seasonal debut – and  will appreciate the step in trip.

4/1 is not a massive price (particularly as it’s impossible to get handle on the other joint fav) – but it strikes me as fair enough

Finally, the Aniknam is the one that interests me in the handicap hurdle at 3:20.

He has been campaigned like a good horse – and could still prove to be one.
Certainly he could prove to be a fair bit better than his current rating of 117.

I think he would prefer soft ground – and I’m a bit concerned about the potentially well handicapped Pure Science (who is making his debut for Sue Smith).

Aniknam has already been backed – but provided he remains strong in the market (around 5/2), I think he will take the beating.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Huntingdon 2:40 Minellaforleisure 0.25pt win 14/1

 

Mentions

 

Huntingdon 1:40 I am Colin (S )

Huntingdon 2:10 Forthefunofit (O )

Lingfield 1:00 Anteros (C )

Lingfield 1:30 Strange Bird (C )

Lingfield 3:00 Tresor De Bontee (O )

Sedgefield 2:50 Grate Fella (P )

Sedgefield 3:20 Aniknam (P )