Daily write-up - Nov 26th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Newbury and Taunton in the UK – and Thurles in Ireland.

The main meeting of the day is at Newbury, which hosts the first day of the 3 day Hennessy festival.

And what a fascinating card it is – packed full of intrigue from the first race to the last.

You really would have to go long way to find a more enthralling card – but unfortunately enthralling racing doesn’t necessary mean good betting opportunities…

There is so much uncertainty and so many unquantifiables, betting on the card really will be for those who like to ‘gamble’ !

I guess most of us fall into that category – but I like to gamble when I feel the odds are in my favour – and I would be guessing over that today.

One big uncertainty is the state of the ground.

It is officially soft to heavy on the hurdles course: and good to soft with soft patches on the chase course.

Well that just about covers everything, I think !

The truth of the matter is we won’t know how it is riding until the horses set hoof on it – and by then ofcourse, it will be too late.

I think it makes a lot more sense to watch and learn, this afternoon.

Anyway, I’ve looked though all the cards – and I’ll try to point out the horses to keep an eye on – plus any possible angels that might open up as the day progresses…

Newbury

The meeting opens up with a fascinating novice hurdle (you might find me using that word a lot, today !).

The question is whether the potentially top class novice hurdler, Modus, can give 8lb to the hurdling debutante, See the World.

I’ve no idea to be honest – and I’ll be intrigued to find out !
For those of you who’ve not seem it before, I really would encourage you to spend a few minutes watching See the Worlds only ever run, at Wincanton.

I’ve genuinely never seen anything like it – and whilst it marks him down as a horse with immense ability – it also suggest that he might have a bit of temperament, as well !

In a race in which Charmix couldn’t be confidently ruled out – and I could see Allee Bleue significantly outrunning his dismissive 50/1 odds, it has to be a watching brief…

The next race on the card (1:00) has a better shape to it, from a betting perspective.

I think the favourite Woof will win – but I’m not prepared to tip him at 9/4 (and I wouldn’t necessarily want to be on him, if he drifted).

In truth, based on the form book, he is not really a 9/4 chance.
However, he makes his debut for Paul Nicholls this afternoon (previously with Tom George) and if Nicholls manages to eak out a few pound s of improvement from him, that will probably be enough to get him home in front.

In fairness, the horse has always looked a bit better than his current mark, so I think Nicholls should be able to improve him.

However, it can’t be considered a formality (and 9/4 leaves precious little margin for error).

Ignoring him, then I would probably be most interested in Top Dancer, if the ground is riding quick-ish (and assuming he is ready to do himself justice): whilst on soft/heavy ground, I would be most interested in Russe Blanc.

However, I think that Wuff should really be able to beat them both…

Rather than try to pick the winner of the race, what I plan to do, is back Lord Landen pre race, with a view to laying him off in running.
He is 38 on BF as I type this – and I could easily see him trading at single figures during the race (assuming his sometimes dodgey jumping holds up).

I very much doubt he will have the stamina to get home – but that might not look the case to the masses, as he rounds the home turn.

In the 1:35 race, I was most surprised to see Unowhatimeanharry opening up at 11/8 last night (with Ladbrokes and B365).

Looking through the race in the afternoon, I was sure he would be odds on – I just wasn’t sure how heavily.

He’s 4/7 now – which is maybe a bit too tight.
However, it is closer the mark than 11/8 ever was !

The horse hacked up in a better race than this at Cheltenham 11 days ago – and as a consequence, is effectively a stone well in today.
He really should be the handicap good thing (assuming he is over that race – and he gets a bit of luck in running).

I certainly wouldn’t offer anything to beat him.

As with the previous race, the best I could come up with would be a back to lay in running on Masterplan.

He should get an uncontested lead (and hence the run of the race).
He can be backed at 20 on BF now – and I think there is a fair chance he will trade at half of that (or better) in running…

I’ll be surprised if he can fend off Unowhatimenaharry, though…

The novice chase at 2:10 contains 3 potential top notchers, in the shape of Une Temp Pour Tout, Value at Risk and Beast of Burden.

They receive weight from the other 4 runners – which just polarises the field even more.

In truth, it’s not easy to pick between the 3.

Une Temp Pour Tout is a grade 1 winner over hurdles (in France): whist the other 2 are more about potential.

I’m a huge fan of Beast of Burden (he is one of my long range RSA fancies) – and if forced, I would side with him.

I actually managed to get a bit of 4/1 about him on BF earlier, and I think that is a very fair bet.

That said, it wouldn’t massively surprise me if either Une Temp Pour Tout or Value at Risk proved his superior today (particularly as the Rebecca Curtis stable is going through a quiet period).
Whatever, I do honestly think that we might see a chaser from the very top drawer in this – so watch it carefully…

I also think we need to watch the novice handicap chase at 2:45 very carefully – but that’s because it’s nearly impossible to call !

I could make a case for at least 8 of the runners – and still wouldn’t be confident I had found the winner.

I actually think the betting has got the right horse at the top, in the form of Warriors Tale.

Another to debut for the Nicholls yard, the case of him is very similar to the case for Wuff  (though this is a deeper race).

If Nicholls can improve him a few pounds, he will be the one to beat.

That said, I could also be quite keen on Nitrogen and Sidbury Hill – and could see angles for Globalisation, African Gold, Spooky Dooky and Chosen Well.

In short, it has to be a watching race – and one that should be watched very closely as I have little doubt that numerous future winners will emerge form it…

Of all the races on the card, this is the one where I got closest to issuing a tip.

For a variety of reason, I think the market leaders are opposable – but unfortunately, I couldn’t find one to oppose them with !

San Benedeto is a quirky character, who couldn’t be guaranteed to repeat the form of his recent win (though he might); whilst Chitbello is a novice who might be harshly handicapped (though he might not be)

Sternrubin is also quirky – and is making his seasonal debut (though he could be dangerous if he’s matured over the summer).

John Constable might be harshly handicapped – and might hot handle the ground.

So you would think one of the outsiders should have a good chance…

The obvious one is probably Wilberdrago – and he might be another decent back to lay in running option.
It will all depend on how much he has come on from his seasonal debut – and how well he copes with todays ground.

Song Light is another of potential interest – but again, the ground is a concern – as is his fitness/well being.

In truth, it’s the kind of race, where I think almost any result is possible – and in those situations, I always gravitate towards the outsiders (even if their cases seemed a little flawed !).

Taunton

There is a very nice novice handicap chase, taking place at 2:20 – but unfortunately it’s no easier to read than the Newbury races…!

There are 9 runners in the race – and a case could be made for the first 7 in the betting.

I’m drawn to By the Boardwalk – though 2 falls in his last 4 runs, does temper  enthusiasm a little (the fences at Taunton can also catch horses out)

If he jumps round safely I could certainly see him being involved in the finish – but the value in a quote of 8/1 is minimal (given his completion record).

Gentleman Jon is the other one of major interest – though if Kilmurvy still has a chance turning in, he could well mow them all down, up the straight.

I’m afraid to say – but another watching race…

Thurles

The race that I would have most liked to tip in this afternoon, is the handicap hurdle at 2:35.

The market for this race is headed by a couple of familiar faces: Sizing Scorpion and Long House Island.
The former got a positive mention prior to his win at Fairyhouse earlier in the moth: whilst the latter just got the better of Repeater, a week ago today ( Grrr !).

It wouldn’t surprise me to see either of them win again today - but neither would have been the tip…

That honour would have fallen to Mr Smith.

He was a big eye catcher at Limerick a couple of weeks ago, when after travelling with menace, he patently failed to stay the 2m4f trip.

He drops back half a mile is distance today and if he came from a small stable, I would take a risk on him. However, he doesn’t, he is trained by Charles Byrnes – and simply, I’m not prepared to tip one of his horses in a race like this.

It’s quite simple with Mr Byrnes – if one of his horses is going to win – it will be backed – and backed heavily.

However, he will be doing the backing – not TVB subscribers.

If we back the horse – and the market reacts (and it will) – it won’t win. It’s as simple as that…

Your options are therefore limited.

You could take a chance on it as an individual – and assume you won’t move the market – or you can wait and see if Mr Byrnes fancies a pay day today.

In truth, the latter option is the safer - even if the former is potentially more lucrative.

All I will say, is that if the money does come, I would understand why !


Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.