Sunday 15 November 2015

Review of the day

What a day !

I knew I was reading things well after Wednesday: yesterday confirmed it – but today…!

Race after race, I was either there – or thereabouts. With a slice of luck it could have been a day to rival last years Boxing day…

Ofcourse it all started brilliantly, when Keel Haul became the first winning tip of the season.
The 25/1 last night was still easily available this morning - but as is so often the case with these big priced winners, he was a slow burner…

Bit by bit, his price shortened – and he was a tight 10/1 shot at the off.
He looked in trouble at the top of the hill – but it had been a fast run race and his stamina was assured.

Slowly, he started to work his way back into things - and I felt confident at the last, he was going to get there.

The other tip in the race, La Vatican, also ran a huge race.
She looked sure to go close when she came there swinging at the top of the hill – but ultimately she didn’t get home.
There will be other days for her…

In terms of reading the race, then my short list of 6 produced the first 3 home.
The tricast paid £766 – if anyone is interested !

In the next race, More of That showed that he could be as good over fences as he was over hurdles.
Certainly, he quickened up to win well – and I suspect there was a fair bit more in the locker.

Double Shuffle ran a fair race - but fourth was as good as he could manage…

Next up it was the novice hurdle - and as I half expected, Tom Scudamore tried to make all on Champers on Ice.
However, all he actually did, was set up the race for Shantou Village and when Noel Fehily kicked, rounding the home turn, it was as race winning move.

Personally, I wouldn’t get carried away with the form – though quotes as low as 16/1 for the Neptune Investment hurdle, suggest others rated it a bit higher…

The following race was the Cross Country chase - and this was when it started to get painful.
Once again, my reading was exemplary – but it was the wrong horse who came out on top.
I would have liked to tip Josies Orders – but the price wasn’t there.

Instead, I put up Bless the Wings – and he ran a cracker to finish third.
You could argue I should have put him up EW – but I think the carnage that occurred during the race, justified my win only path.

The revelation of the race was indeed Valadom.
He was easy to back at 70 on BF, for most of the day.
However, he set out to make all – and went as low as 4.2 in running.
As I suspected, his stamina ultimately gave way – but he ran a massive race to finish fourth.

The novice handicap hurdle at 3:25 will doubtless have resulted in the closure of more bookmaker accounts than any previous race in history !
A Hare Breath was put in at 25/1 last night – but was 4/1 by this morning.
I saw an interview with his trainer pre–race, in which he said he had to take the horse to Nicky Henderson’s to work – because he didn’t have anything capable of going with it at home ! (and he a horse who is nearly favourite for the Supreme Novice hurdle !)

Armed with that knowledge, the 6/1 SP was probably quite generous.
He certainly won very well – and will doubtless go on to better things (as I suspect, will one or two of those in behind him).

Then finally, the biggest sickener of the day.
As with Keel Haul, Foxbridge was quietly backed throughout the day, from 16/1, into 9/1 at the off.
The only problem, was that in the race, he just wouldn’t settle.
I have absolutely no doubt that cost him victory – because having kicked round the home turn, he was so game up the hill.

I know I’m talking through my pocket to an extent, but he didn’t deserve to lose.
The double with Keel Haul was just under 500/1 – it was a tough one to take.

I guess these things happen – and I know that one or two of you got up an EW treble on the 3 tips – which itself paid over 100/1.

It was a good day for sure - but with a following wind, it could have been one of the best.

I guess there’s always tomorrow…

Talking of which, the tipping window will re-open at 6:00 this evening, for those on the Tips service (and who can cope with another day !)…


TVB

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