Daily write-up - Nov 20th

With the abandonment of Ffos Las, there are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Haydock and Ascot.

Both are the first days of 2 day meetings – with the main events coming tomorrow.

In fairness they are both reasonable cards in their own right – and the biggest issue I had was getting a proper handle on the ground.

My expectation is that it will be proper soft ground at Haydock – but a little better at Ascot.

Whilst the weather has been stormy, I don’t believe the amount of rainfall has been that great – and with strong winds, the ground probably isn’t as soft as you would instinctively expect.

That’s what I’ve got in my head, anyway !

I’ve ended up with 3 tips in 2 races – and hopefully they have all got a reasonable chance.

I issued early this morning – and once again, some people were prepared to chase down prices on BF.

I’ve mentioned it before – and now I’m asking nicely.

Please don’t do this.

I’ve no issue with people using BF to back the horses – but use your brains as well.

Don’t go chasing down prices – it will just cause a crash.

9 times out of 10, you’ll be able to get a better price if you show some patience.

Furthermore, everyone else will have a better chance of getting a price as well…

I’ll monitor the situation over the weekend – but if it persists, I’ll have no choice other than to start taking action from next week onwards…

On to the rationale for today’s tips – and a few other thoughts…

Haydock

Not too surprisingly, Optimistic Bias makes the market for this race.
He is a young progressive hurdler, who did well to force a dead heat with Sykes at Aintree on his seasonal debut – and a 6lb rise in the weights for that, is fair enough.
If he handles the ground, he is probably the one to beat today.

However, at 9/4, his price is pretty short and I’m prepared to take him on with a couple at bigger odds…

The first of those is Hidden Justice.

He has only run 7 times over hurdles – but has won on 3 occasions.

The first 2 of those wins, were when he was a juvenile a couple of seasons ago.

He hacked up on heavy ground at the first time of asking; before following up in the soft at Catterick.

On the strength of those 2 runs, he was sent off a 16/1 shot for that seasons Triumph hurdle – but he failed to figure in that race.

However, as I’ve said in the past, the fact a horse runs in the Triumph nowadays (as opposed to the Fred Winter) is invariably a positive sign.

Most of Hidden Justices runs since then have been on the flat.

He has performed well in that discipline and was second in a strong race at York, just last month.

There is an argument, that on his flat form, he is well weighted off a mark of 129 today – and that excludes the claim of his conditional rider, Dean Pratt.
Pratt has an excellent record for the John Quinn stable – and effectively makes Hidden Justice an even better handicapped horse.

I can see no reason why he won’t run a big race – and 8/1 was a very fair price.

The other one I want onside, is Shades of Midnight.
He is more speculative but has shown glimmers of form, which suggest that he too could be well handicapped off a mark of 124.

He also appears likely to be suited by a step up in trip – so with him likely to strip fitter for his seasonal debut – and from a stable in decent form, I think he is worth having on side as a saver.

Island Heights is the other one I could have been interested in – but like Optimistic Bias, there was no value in his early price.

The value was with Hidden Justice and Shades of Midnight and I’m happy to split stakes between them, with a bias towards the former.

0.375pt win Hidden Justice 8/1

0.125pt win Shades of Midnight 10/1

There are only 3 runners, in the graduation chase at 1:20 – but I still considered putting up Kings Lad.
He impressed me on his seasonal debut at Kempton, a race in which, at the weights,  he had little chance of winning.

He has a much better chance at the weights today – and should strip fitter for that run.

He’s the outsider of 3 – which I think is wrong – but he is still only a 5/2 shot.

At 7/2 I would have been sorely tempted – and I guess he might drift to that price, pre-race…

Few horses impressed me more than Minella Rocco last season – and he makes his chasing debut in the novice chase at 2:30.

He’s been installed 4/5 fav – so isn’t a betting proposition – particularly with the decidedly useful Silsol in opposition (giving 5lb).

I would be very hopeful that Minella Rocco would be up to winning – because there’s nothing better than watching a top class chaser making his fencing debut – and I think Minella Rocco could be top class.

That said, if he’s not, Silsol is probably good enough to take advantage.

Despite only 3 runners, it should be an informative contest.

There is too much guesswork involved to consider a bet in the novice hurdle at 3:05 – but I would suggest you keep an eye on I Just Know…

I was taken with his first run over hurdles at Wetherby – when he performed very creditably against a couple of decidedly useful sorts.

If he can build on that run, he will be a tough one for the others to pass.

That said, there could easily be a very useful one against him (including his own stable mate, Vintage Clouds), so it can only be a watching race…

Ascot

2:40

I am hoping that the ground at Ascot won’t ride to soft this afternoon – as I think Fairy Rath would prefer a quicker surface.

Assuming that’s the case, then I think he has a decent chance in what looks a pretty open contest…

My instinctive feeling is that Fairy Rath has actually been targeted at this race.

He won at Ascot a couple of seasons ago – so clearly operates well around the track.

That was over 2 miles – but he has done most of his running since then, over today’s trip of 2m4f, so that won’t be an issue.

It was over that trip, he finished second in last seasons Topham Trophy at Aintree.

He ran an absolutely blinder that day – and was unlucky to bump into a very well handicapped horse in Rajdhani Express.

On the plus side, Fairy Rath only got put up 1lb for that run – with Rajdhani not in the race, he would have been a 10 length winner of class 1, 30 runner, handicap – and probably would have got 10lb for his troubles !

On his seasonal debut at Stratford last month, I thought he ran a very promising race –whilst clearly in need of the run.
I would expect him to be cherry ripe today – and if connections are going for it, I think he could take some beating.

The absence of Horizontal Sped, means that he is likely to get an uncontested lead.
Hopefully Tom Cannon will take advantage of that – and turn the race into a jumping test.
If he does – and Fairy Rath is in top form, I think he could prove difficult to pass…

0.25pt win Fairy Rath 14/1

The first 3 races on the Ascot card are all novice events – and whilst they should be interesting, they are not really betting mediums.

The 3:15 potentially is – but the most likely winner, is the favourite, Loose Chips.

He could be interesting – but he is coming here on the back of a fall at Cheltenham last week – and is faced by a very interesting ex French horse, making its debut for Venetia.

In short, there is quite a lot of guesswork involved.

That said, it’s not easy to muster much enthusiasm for the rest of the field, so there is always the chance that Loose Chips will win by default !!

The final race on the card is the handicap hurdle at 3:50.

Again, I’m struggling to see beyond the top of the market – but don’t feel strongly enough about the market leaders to tip any of them.

I have a feeling that Winner Massagot is a lot better than his current mark – but he apparently has a strong preference for decent ground.

I’m hoping it will be OK for him at Ascot today – but the nasty drift in his price, suggests otherwise.
If he isn’t up to the job, then Cloonacool is the one most likely to take advantage – but he is second fav and shortening.

The other one of potential interest was Forest Bihan – but he is third fav.

In short, not a race where I can see much of an angle…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.