Daily write-up - Nov 23rd

There are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Kempton and Ludow…

However, it is a definite case of quality over quantity – with both meetings putting on some really good racing (for a Monday !)

Ofcourse, with it being a Monday, tipping in them is a bit trickier – but the write-up helps on that front.

Suffice to say, I put a lot of time into the races I looked at, so whilst the volume of tips might not have materialised (due to prices and market strength), I would expect the analysis to hold up.

Here are my thoughts for the day – including the rationale behind the days 2 tips…

Ludlow

3:55

I had hoped that Looks Like Power might sneak under the radar in this contest.

He was as big as 25/1 last night – but the money started to arrive this morning – and whilst he was still 20/1 in a few places at 8:00 – only PP had him at that price at 8:30 (and that didn’t last long).
I’m kind of hoping that it was ‘shrewd’ money that backed him – because I think the case for him isn’t that obvious…

True he ran in a fair race at Ascot on his seasonal debut last time out, but he finished well beaten in that contest – and a long way behind one of the other runners in todays race, Tanit River.

However, that bare result doesn’t properly tell the tale…

Looks Like Power was just about clinging on to the coat tails of the leading pack of 6, rounding the home turn, when he momentarily stumbled.

He then landed flat footed jumping the second last – and his chance was effectively over.

He was allowed to come home in his own time from that point – whist Tanit River stayed on past him to finish fourth.

Strictly on the book Tanit River should uphold the form today – but to my eye, Looks Like Power was the better horse in that race – and on 2lb better terms today, I would expect him to reverse the form (I would actually except him to reverse the form, even without the weight pull).

In truth, it is difficult to get a proper handle on Looks Like Power, but his fifth in a good class bumper at the Cheltenham New Year meeting 2 seasons ago, suggests that connections have always held him in some regard.

I just have a feeling that the horse is well handicapped off a mark of 107 – and he should also be fit enough to do himself justice,.

The drop in his price was slightly disappointing – but hopefully it confirmed that he is fancied.
I can certainly see him outrunning his odds.

The one in the race that I’m most fearful of, is Kublai.

He showed distinct promise on his seasonal debut but has been off for 2 months since then.
Apparently he has been suffering with ulcers – but if they have been sorted, I would expect him to be a real danger today.
He could certainly be worth savings stakes on.

0.25pt win Looks Like Power 16/1

I got pretty close to tipping Kerryhead Storm in the handicap chase at 2:20 – and certainly wouldn’t put anyone off having a small play on him.

He caught my eye last time out, when finishing third over this course and distance –and I would expect him to come on for the run.

He was just behind Noche De Reyes that day – but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him turn round that form.

I guess the problem with the race, is that it looks quite open.

It also looks as if it could be a bit tactical (there is potentially a lot of pace in it).

The final issue I have with Kerryhead Storm, is whether he is quite up to this class.

Tornado in Milan and Minella Definitely are the two I fear most (particularly the latter, as he should be well suited if there is a pace race at the front).

I’m pretty sure Kerryhead Storm will run well – but not quite so sure he will come home in front.
I guess 9/1 might appeal EW to some of you – but as you know by now, that’s not really my style (generally speaking !)

If I could be sure he would jump round cleanly, I would be pretty confident that I am Colin would come home first in the following novice handicap chase.

This looks a poor race to me – and I suspect I am Colin has a fair bit more ability than most of the runners.
However, based on his first time out run at Huntington, you could have little confidence in his jumping.

I’m sure he will have been extensively school since then – and the Ludlow fences aren’t the most demanding in the country – but all the same, if he starts belting him like he did at Huntingdon, he’s unlikely to win.

I guess you pay your money, you make your choice.

11/2 could either look a gift – or a dreadful bet !

Kempton

2:45

I was initially interested in The Clock Leary in this - but so too was everyone else !

I guess I’m not surprised that he’s favourite – but I just think the market has over reacted to things…

Instead, I’m going to side with Gone Too Far.

Ofcourse, everyone knows he’s better horse when fresh – hence why he has drifted out from 4/1 last night to 12/1 today.

In fact, I find it quite astonishing that the only person who doesn’t realise he is best fresh, is his trainer, Alan King.

You would think he would know the horse better than anyone – but clearly, that’s not the case.

I also find it interesting that Barry Geraghty is over on a Monday to ride him.

He does have a couple of other rides at the meeting – but this looks like the main one to me.
Evidently, nobody has told Barry that the horse isn’t fresh enough either…

Obviously I’m being slightly facetious – but suffice to say, I do think the market reaction has gone way over the top and consequently we have a horse, who I now think represents a bit of value.

Ofcourse, he still might not be good enough to win – based purely on form he is certainly no good thing.
However, I do think he has the form in the book to be competitive – and he is still young enough to be progressive.

At the end of the day, this is a ‘value’ bet at the prices – lets’ hope we get something tangible back for our ‘value’ !

0.25pt win Gone Too Far 10/1

Carsten was asking in the forum yesterday, whether the huge support for Fletchers Flyer at Exeter, was because someone ‘knew’…

I said that it was primarily because of his connections – and I think we will see a similar situation today in the novice chase at 1:35.

Vaniteux is likely to be backed into a silly price in this – simply because of his connections (and his reputation).

On form over hurdles, he deserves to be favourite - but I would question whether he even deserves to be odds on.

And that’s assuming his jumping is proficient (as we know, jumping round Kempton is no formality).
If he is fully tuned for his debut  –and he jumps round cleanly, he should win – but 4/6 – I don’t think so !
Of his rivals, then on decent ground, receiving weight, Stephanie Francis has to be a big danger.
That said, I think Qewy could also prove to be quite talented over fences..

I’ll probably not play in the race because I am happy to watch these kind of events – but if the plunge on Vaniteux gets really silly, I might be tempted to take him on.

In the handicap hurdle at 3:15, I toyed with the idea of tipping Walk on Al early, when he was an 8/1 shot.
However, I hesitated – and the price soon went.

I think he was potentially value at that price - but I was put off by at least a couple of others that I half fancied in the race, namely Monetary Fund and Lady of Longstone.
I certainly think the latter could be interesting if she gets an uncontested lead.
Whatever, I think she should be a good back to lay in running proposition for those of you who play on BF.

The final event on the card is very trappy.

I was initially attracted to Right Step – but I wonder if he will be quite good enough.
The likes of Presenting Arms, Paddys Runner and Polstar could all be much better than their current marks.
I suspect the winner will come from those 3 – but I’m not sure which one it will be…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.