Daily write-up - Nov 7th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Wincanton, Aintree and Kelso in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

It’s been a bit of a frustrating first week of the new season…

Limited opportunities in the first few days, have been followed by a big change in the weather in past few days.

I’ve honestly got little idea what the ground will be riding like today.

My guess (hope) is that it will be soft/heavy at Wincanton – and soft at both Aintree and Kelso.

I could be wrong though – and even if I had the most accurate weather information you could get, we wouldn’t actually know for sure until the horses set hoof on the track...

In this situation my tendency is always to play cautiously.

I’m prepared to take the odd small risk on a big priced horse – but that’s about as far as I will go.

And with regard to today, that’s a shame.
I spent the majority of yesterday going through the races at the UK meeting – and I thought I’d found some interesting angles – but the weather has done for them.

Still we mustn’t lose sight of the fact that there’s a long season ahead – and we haven’t reached the end of week 1 yet.

I have no doubt there will be plenty of opportunities in the forthcoming weeks - we just have to be patient and wait for them to appear (it is always a mistake to try and force them).

Here is the rationale for the tips I have issued today – plus my thoughts on some of the other races…

Wincanton

2:05

The big race of the day is the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton – and there is a chance that The Ould Lad will take it apart…

He makes his debut for Paul Nicholls of a mark of just 125 and he could prove much, much better than that mark.

That said, he comes with plenty of risks – so at a best price of 3/1, his appeal is limited.

However, his presence means that I feel it’s not a race to be going mad on…

Excluding him, my short list for the race consists of A Good Skin, Going Fine and Bertie Boru – and it’s the last named I’ve chosen as my selection.

A course winner on the heavy a couple of seasons ago, he has been gradually progressive and may still be open to further improvement over todays trip.

Most of his form has been over shorter – but an excellent second to the very well handicapped Unioniste over 3 miles at Sandown last January, suggested that he is capable of winning off his current mark, over 3 miles.

He won on his debut last season – and comes from the Philip Hobbs stable which is in excellent form.

With Dickie Johnson in the saddle, he has ticks in plenty of boxes for a 14/1 shot…

I did consider splitting stakes with both Doing Fine and A Good Skin.

However the booking of Wayne Hutchinson for the former, just doesn’t sit quite right with me (I don’t think he has ridden for Rebecca Curtis before); whilst I just wonder if the inexperience of A Good Skin will catch him out in this tough handicap.

That said, The Ould Lad aside, he is the one I would be most fearful of.

Let’s hope that Dickie and Bertie can keep them at bay !

0.25pt win Bertie Boru 14/1

3:15

The other big race on the Wincanton card, is the Elite hurdle.

The market for this contest is dominated by the 4 year olds, Zarib and All Yours – but I wonder whether they will be suited to a gruelling race in potentially very soft conditions…

I would rather take them on with the 2 oldest runners in the field: Melodic Rendezvous and Olofi.

Both horses are well suited by soft ground; both have run well on their seasonal debut in the past – and both are tough enough to handle a tough race (if that is how it ends up).

Melodic Rendezvous actually won this race on this seasonal debut 2 years ago, off a mark just 1lb lower than he races off today.

That race was run on good to soft ground - but on heavy, Melodic Rendezvous was border line champion hurdle class, as defeats of Ptit Zig and Zarkandar, demonstrate.

Of course, he’s not getting any younger - but the booking of Richard Johnson suggests that connections aren’t here for a day out…

Olofi doesn’t have the class of Melodic Rendezvous – but he’s a horse who handles soft ground and who tends to go very well fresh.

He won the Greatwood hurdle at the Cheltenham open meeting on his seasonal debut 3 years ago – and whilst the has not won since, he has run some very good races…

Connections have tried fences with him and stepping him up in trip – but I think a fast run 2 miles on soft ground are what he wants.

He gets those conditions today – and whilst he’s a couple of pounds out of the handicap, he is still running from a mark, lower than he won the Greatwood off.

Ofcourse both horses come with risks – but so do the market leaders – and in those situations, I’m always going to side with the longer priced horses…

0.25pt win Melodic Rendezvous 10/1

0.125pt win Olofi 20/1

Earlier on the Wincanton card, I could have been very interested in King Of Glory – but 6/4 is a bit too tight…

In truth, he might still have been a Top Pick last season, because I think he will win – but I’m not prepared to pull the trigger at that price.

He is the only representative on the card for the Venetia Williams/Aidan Coleman combination – and that makes him immediately of interest.
I also think he has potential to rate much higher than his current mark of 111.

The only slight concern I have, is with his stamina – but it is slight.
That said, I do think Ballydague Lady might be able to push him close…

There is an excellent novice chase at 1:30 – and I am quite interested in L’Unique…

She is making her chasing debut today – but was the best of these over hurdles.

That said, just because she was best over hurdles, doesn’t mean she will be best over fences…

In truth, there are others in the field with far more scope for jumping a fence (Arpage Dalene, Warrantor – plus Junction Fourteen), so whilst she kind of sets the standard, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see that standard surpassed…

Finally, there’s a good quality mares handicap hurdle off at 2:40 – but I really don’t fancy picking between the top 4 in the betting…

At the prices available yesterday evening, Tara Mist would have been tempting (she was 6/1) – but she has been backed in to 4/1 today, which holds limited appeal.

In truth, there is a bit of guess work involved anyway – so whilst the race does look between the markets leaders, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if one of the outsiders got involved in the finish.

Aintree

I really was hoping that the rain wouldn’t reach Liverpool as I thought I had found a couple of interesting ones – but it seems it has.

I guess they still might be of interest if the ground isn’t too soft - but they are impossible to tip with the uncertainty…

In the handicap hurdle at 1:55, Nautical Nitwit was the one that potentially interested me…

He was a bit of an eye catcher on his debut for Phil Kirby at Southwell – and I felt he might have been capable of upsetting the better class rivals he meets today, if the ground had been good.
That was the case yesterday - but its not the case today.

On soft ground, I think Our Kaempfer will be hard to beat – but easy enough to pass on, at a best price of 2/1…

The other horse I was hoping to tip, was De Boitron.

I really would have been interested in him on good ground – but now that it’s soft, his appeal is greatly diminished…

Again, the race now looks most likely to go to the favourite, Upepito – though I think he has more of a task of his plate than Our Kaempfer does in the previous race.

Certainly, if Tara Road manages to bounce back to form after a lack lustre run last week, he is handicapped to go close.

Rebecca Curtis has brought over Paul Townend for 4 rides – and that is always an interesting move.

Tara Road is currently a best price 11/1 – and he might be worth a small risk at that price (assuming the ground is genuinely soft).

Earlier on the card, Caracci Apache should take the beating in an intriguing novice chase at 1:20.
However he has been priced up accordingly and 2/1 makes minimal appeal..

Whilst there is a fascinating conditions hurdle at 2:30, which sees the reappearance of the former high class Simonsig, after nearly 3 years off the course.

There is no way he will be spot on for todays race – but finding one to oppose him with, isn’t easy…

The John Ferguson horses are the most obvious angle  - but I don’t think either of them will be suited by very soft ground.

Bobsworth will be – but he won’t be quick enough (or sharp enough) to win…

Consequently Royal Boy could be the one to be interested in – but only, I suspect, if the market speaks in his favour…

Kelso

There’s an interesting meeting at Kelso, with a few decent races – and in truth, it’s not just uncertainty over the going which has stopped me tipping there (though obviously, that doesn’t help !).

In the handicap chase at 1:40, I was half interested in Rival D’estruval.

A very decent chaser at his best, he ran an eye catching race on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Wetherby.

He should come on for that run – and will be suited by a step up in trip today.
The going won’t be an issue for him (the softer the better) – and he is nicely handicapped over hurdles, compared to his chase rating…

I guess the concerns are that he isn’t getting any younger - and he does face some potentially progressive rivals.

11/2 strikes me as about the right price for him…

In the following race at 2:15, I would have been prepared to take a risk on Kilgefin Star at 5/1 or above.

Ladbrokes opened up with him at 7/1 yesterday evening, which got my hopes up – but he’s a best price of 7/2 now.

I don’t think Creepy will appreciate rain softened ground – but I couldn’t categorically rule out any of the other 3.

Once again, it looks to me as if the market has got the prices about right…

The handicap chase at 2:50 looks wide open – and is one where I could have taken a risk…

Rockawango must have a chance of following up last seasons win in the corresponding contest, off a mark just 4lb higher.

He will appreciate any rainfall  - and 9/1 is a fair price.

However, his potential is limited - and there are a few in the race who could easily improve past him.

I put up Woodpole Academy in the forum, a couple of weeks ago, and he ran a huge race at Ayr, before falling.
That was his first run back after a break and I would be slightly concerned that he might bounce as a result of it – but if he didn’t he is anther who could be a good bet at 12/1.

That said, it is not a race where many can be comfortably ruled out – so on balance, I figured it best to take a watching brief.

Naas

As has been the case on quite a few occasions recently there is some interesting racing in Ireland – but not much in the way of betting opportunities…

I’ll be keeping n eye on Petite Parsienne on her comeback in the conditions hurdle at 1:25: and Sub Lieutenant on his chasing debut at 2:35 – but I won’t be backing either…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

Wincanton 2:05 Bertie Boru 0.25pt win 14/1

Wincanton 3:15 Melodic Rendezvous 0.25pt win 10/1

Wincanton 3:15 Olofi 0.125pt win 20/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Wincanton 12:55 King of Glory (P )

Wincanton 1:30 L’Unique (O )

Wincanton 2:40 Tara Mist (P )

Aintree 1:55 Our Kaempfer (P )

Aintree 2:30 Royal Boy (S )

Aintree 3:05 Tara Road (S )

Kelso 1:40 Rival D’Estruval (O )

Kelso 2:15 Kilgefin Star (P )

Kelso 2:50 Woodpole Academy (O )